1/ ASML $ASML had another great quarter (to nobody’s surprise)....
Leandro@Invesquotes
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Oct 14, 2026
~2 min read
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1/ ASML $ASML had another great quarter (to nobody’s surprise). €11.7bn in sales and 57.5% gross margin.
I recalculated my 2028 numbers with the new information and I'm significantly ahead of the company's 2030 guide (two years early)
Some thoughts 👇
I recalculated my 2028 numbers with the new information and I'm significantly ahead of the company's 2030 guide (two years early)
Some thoughts 👇
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2/ Sales grew 25% QoQ and R&D actually went down. R&D was 13.7% of sales in Q2 and 10.1% in Q3.
One quarter isn’t a trend, but it makes sense directionally: ASML spent a decade on EUV R&D and it’s now starting to get paid for it (i.e., hello operating leverage)
One quarter isn’t a trend, but it makes sense directionally: ASML spent a decade on EUV R&D and it’s now starting to get paid for it (i.e., hello operating leverage)
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3/ Lots of people started quoting the EPS beat, but €500m of that is the Mistral AI revaluation.
Take it out and EPS is ~€11.60 vs €12.95 reported. Still a fantastic quarter, but the P/E will most likely become a misleading metric for ASML
Take it out and EPS is ~€11.60 vs €12.95 reported. Still a fantastic quarter, but the P/E will most likely become a misleading metric for ASML
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4/ I was also surprised by how many people flagged China jumping to 23% of system sales as a bad thing.
YTD it’s ~19%, basically what management guided for 2026. I do understand the concerns though...
YTD it’s ~19%, basically what management guided for 2026. I do understand the concerns though...
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5/ Some thoughts on the MATCH Act
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6/ Management claimed that the +30% capacity in 2027 and +30% in 2028 won’t be enough to meet demand.
2027 looks pretty locked in terms of capacity, so any upside there probably comes from more IBM sales.
2027 looks pretty locked in terms of capacity, so any upside there probably comes from more IBM sales.
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7/ Customers are already talking about orders for 2029 and even 2030.
Evidently great to hear, but I’m a lot more skeptical about those years than about 2028, and I think they matter more than people think for where the stock ends up.
Evidently great to hear, but I’m a lot more skeptical about those years than about 2028, and I think they matter more than people think for where the stock ends up.
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8/ On my 2028 numbers...more units, IBM running hotter than I modeled, and price increases on EUV and DUV.
I end up well above the 2030 guide, two years early, and comfortably ahead of consensus.
At €1,530 the stock looks cheap on 2028 numbers, with several caveats (discussed in my article)
I end up well above the 2030 guide, two years early, and comfortably ahead of consensus.
At €1,530 the stock looks cheap on 2028 numbers, with several caveats (discussed in my article)
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9/ Full breakdown with the scenarios, the operating income math, the IRR, and what could go wrong: bestanchorstocks.com/p/my-2028-numb…
