1/ I WONDERED WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU JUST BUY THE BEST PERFORMING...
GURGAVIN@gurgavin
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Oct 13, 2026
~1 min read
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1/ I WONDERED WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU JUST BUY THE BEST PERFORMING STOCK FROM THE YEAR BEFORE AND DO IT EVERY SINGLE YEAR
SO I BACKTESTED IT GOING BACK 15 YEARS
STARTING WITH $100 IN 2012:
END RESULTS
S&P 500 → $800
LAST YEAR'S WINNER → $176,114
SO I BACKTESTED IT GOING BACK 15 YEARS
STARTING WITH $100 IN 2012:
END RESULTS
S&P 500 → $800
LAST YEAR'S WINNER → $176,114
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2/ IT BEAT THE S&P 500 IN 11 OF THE LAST 15 YEARS
THE BIG YEARS: $AMD +148% IN 2019, $NVDA +171% IN 2024, $PLTR +135% IN 2025 AND $SNDK +566% THIS YEAR
THE BIG YEARS: $AMD +148% IN 2019, $NVDA +171% IN 2024, $PLTR +135% IN 2025 AND $SNDK +566% THIS YEAR
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3/ HERE IS EVERY WINNER SINCE 2012
THIS YEAR'S LEADER SO FAR IS $MRNA UP 663%
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS IT MIGHT BE THE STOCK TO OWN IN 2027
THIS YEAR'S LEADER SO FAR IS $MRNA UP 663%
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS IT MIGHT BE THE STOCK TO OWN IN 2027
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4/ NOW LET’S GO BACK 30 YEARS
STARTING WITH $100 IN 1997
INVESTING IN S&P 500 -> $1,752
INVESTING IN THE LAST YEAR’S WINNERS -> $89,418
BUT IT FELL 97% FROM 1999 TO 2011 AND TOOK 23 YEARS TO GET BACK ABOVE ITS 1999 HIGH
STARTING WITH $100 IN 1997
INVESTING IN S&P 500 -> $1,752
INVESTING IN THE LAST YEAR’S WINNERS -> $89,418
BUT IT FELL 97% FROM 1999 TO 2011 AND TOOK 23 YEARS TO GET BACK ABOVE ITS 1999 HIGH
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4/ NOW LETS ADD SOME SAFE GUARDS
WHAT IF WE ADD A STOP LOSS?
IF THE STOCK FALLS 35% BELOW WHAT WE PAID, WE SELL AND SIT IN CASH UNTIL JANUARY
LAST 30 YEARS, STARTING WITH $100:
S&P 500 -> $1,752
LAST YEAR’S WINNERS -> $89,418
LAST YEAR’S WINNERS + 35% STOP -> $1,514,581
WHAT IF WE ADD A STOP LOSS?
IF THE STOCK FALLS 35% BELOW WHAT WE PAID, WE SELL AND SIT IN CASH UNTIL JANUARY
LAST 30 YEARS, STARTING WITH $100:
S&P 500 -> $1,752
LAST YEAR’S WINNERS -> $89,418
LAST YEAR’S WINNERS + 35% STOP -> $1,514,581
