1/ ASML and TSMC both reported Q2 earnings last week. Both crushed...
Leandro@Invesquotes
57 views
Aug 02, 2026
~2 min read
Advertisement
1
1/ ASML and TSMC both reported Q2 earnings last week. Both crushed earnings and raised guidance significantly.
The stocks barely moved.
Buried in their earnings calls is a bigger story that has implications for the AI trade: the bottleneck narrative is shifting! 🧵
$ASML $TSM
The stocks barely moved.
Buried in their earnings calls is a bigger story that has implications for the AI trade: the bottleneck narrative is shifting! 🧵
$ASML $TSM
2
2/ Let's start with the Q2 numbers.
ASML: +21% revenue growth, +29% EPS growth, FY26 guide raised to €43-45B (from €36-40B)
TSMC: +36% revenue growth, +77% EPS growth, FY26 growth guide now >40%, capex raised to $60B - $64B
Good earnings, but these were not the highlight!
ASML: +21% revenue growth, +29% EPS growth, FY26 guide raised to €43-45B (from €36-40B)
TSMC: +36% revenue growth, +77% EPS growth, FY26 growth guide now >40%, capex raised to $60B - $64B
Good earnings, but these were not the highlight!
3
3/ But here's what went undiscussed.
ASML's new FY26 guide of ~€44B is the LOW END of its 2030 guide.
This means they're about to hit their 2030 target... 4 years early. Management already admitted the 2030 guide will be revisited at the 2027 CMD.
But there's more!
ASML's new FY26 guide of ~€44B is the LOW END of its 2030 guide.
This means they're about to hit their 2030 target... 4 years early. Management already admitted the 2030 guide will be revisited at the 2027 CMD.
But there's more!
4
4/ "Capacity" was the star word of both calls.
ASML plans to grow low-NA EUV output 30% in 2027 and another 30% in 2028: from 65 systems this year to 110 in 2028.
Same story in immersion DUV: +30% and +30%.
The 2027 order book for low-NA EUV is already booked.
ASML plans to grow low-NA EUV output 30% in 2027 and another 30% in 2028: from 65 systems this year to 110 in 2028.
Same story in immersion DUV: +30% and +30%.
The 2027 order book for low-NA EUV is already booked.
5
5/ The unit count understates it. The mix is shifting from "D" systems (160 wph) to "E" (220) and "F" (260).
Management sized the mix impact: 2027 capacity grows ~45%, not 30%.
Net result: wph added to the industry by new systems roughly doubles in 2 years.
Management sized the mix impact: 2027 capacity grows ~45%, not 30%.
Net result: wph added to the industry by new systems roughly doubles in 2 years.
6
6/ The interesting part was that analysts asked if the 85/110 numbers were supply-constrained.
Management said that they're based on customer demand signals, and supply could be stretched further if needed.
This ultimately means that ASML will not remain a bottleneck for long.
Management said that they're based on customer demand signals, and supply could be stretched further if needed.
This ultimately means that ASML will not remain a bottleneck for long.
7
7/ ASML is also finally flexing pricing power. This has historically been one of the most underpriced monopolies, but now they're making "exceptional" price hikes.
TSMC is reportedly unhappy. But TSMC raises prices + expands margins aggressively... and the monopsony days are over. Many players now fight for ASML's EUV capacity.
TSMC is reportedly unhappy. But TSMC raises prices + expands margins aggressively... and the monopsony days are over. Many players now fight for ASML's EUV capacity.
8
8/ So where's the bottleneck? Jensen Huang called it months ago, and it's not semis...
"More chip capacity, that's a 2-3 year problem."
Memory remains the near-term constraint, and TSMC confirmed memory pricing is already destroying non-AI demand. How long will this last?
"More chip capacity, that's a 2-3 year problem."
Memory remains the near-term constraint, and TSMC confirmed memory pricing is already destroying non-AI demand. How long will this last?
9
9/ Quick math on ASML 2028 numbers lands us on ~€68B total revenue (my estimates). 13% ABOVE the 2030 guide, 2 years early.
At 60% gross margins → ~€33B EBIT → currently trading at 18x 2028 EBIT.
At 60% gross margins → ~€33B EBIT → currently trading at 18x 2028 EBIT.
10
10/ At 25x exit EBIT that's a 17-18% IRR before buybacks, with conservative ASP assumptions.
Risks exist (2028 orders aren't firm, Kimi K3 "Deepseek moments"...), but the IRR math has changed with fundamentals improving and the stock "correcting."
Risks exist (2028 orders aren't firm, Kimi K3 "Deepseek moments"...), but the IRR math has changed with fundamentals improving and the stock "correcting."
11
Wrote much more about this here: bestanchorstocks.com/p/the-bottlene…
