1/11 Why russia actually cannot win the unprovoked, useless, and...
Joni Askola@joni_askola
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Jun 01, 2025
~2 min read
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1/11 Why russia actually cannot win the unprovoked, useless, and genocidal war it started in Ukraine
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2/11 russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, then launched a full-scale war in 2022, using genocidal rhetoric to justify it and aiming to ’demilitarize and denazify’ Ukraine. Yet today, Ukraine is more militarized and sovereign than at any point in its independence
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3/11 russia’s strategic goals, stripped of fascist rhetoric, amount to forcing ’regime change’ in Ukraine—installing a pro-russian puppet, rewriting the constitution, and stationing russian troops, and ultimately russifying the country. But russia won’t ever achieve those goals
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4/11 russia has gone all in on this war and has basically nothing to show for it. It mobilized, shifted to a war economy, emptied its prisons, and received massive aid from its allies—including troops and lots of equipment from North Korea
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5/11 Despite going all in, russia currently occupies only 19% of Ukraine, down from around 30% in March 2022. It has also failed to capture any of the 23 regional capital and special status cities that Ukraine controlled at the start of the full-scale invasion. Map: ISW
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6/11 This failure has come at a huge cost. russia has suffered nearly one million total casualties, its massive stockpiles of Soviet-era equipment have been depleted, and its economy is overheating, forcing it to maintain a key interest rate of 21%
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7/11 russia’s demographics and future prospects are bleak, and inflation remains high due to a severe labor shortage. Putin’s regime is also less stable than it appears, having faced a humiliating coup attempt by Prigozhin in 2023
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8/11 russia’s war has been a complete disaster, and it will never achieve its strategic goals—making it impossible for the aggressor, as the initiator and active party, to claim victory. It has done all this for nothing, and at a huge cost
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9/11 Still, failure comes in degrees. russia may prolong the war to avoid admitting defeat, inflict more suffering on Ukrainians, and blur public perception—hoping to secure a better deal than it deserves
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10/11 Trump and other traitors may try to shield russia from the worst outcomes, but it won’t achieve its strategic goals. It can drag out the war and suffering to seize a bit more land, but it will still lose in the end
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11/11 It’s important to keep these facts in mind when considering negotiations and how to end the war, as they explain why russia is in no rush—and why it must be pressured hard if peace is ever to be achieved
