1/11 Many think the war in Ukraine is a tie. But strategically,...
Joni Askola@joni_askola
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Jun 27, 2025
~2 min read
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1/11 Many think the war in Ukraine is a tie.
But strategically, Ukraine is much closer to achieving its initial strategic goals than russia is.
Here’s why Ukraine is closer to winning—and why russia is facing one of the biggest military failures in modern history
But strategically, Ukraine is much closer to achieving its initial strategic goals than russia is.
Here’s why Ukraine is closer to winning—and why russia is facing one of the biggest military failures in modern history
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2/11 In war, success is measured by strategic objectives.
russia’s initial strategic goals were ”denazification and demilitarization,” meaning regime change, turning Ukraine into a satellite state, and installing a pro-russian puppet as its leader
russia’s initial strategic goals were ”denazification and demilitarization,” meaning regime change, turning Ukraine into a satellite state, and installing a pro-russian puppet as its leader
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3/11 That’s why russia lauched a full-scale invasion targeting Kyiv in early 2022—hoping for a quick collapse.
It failed.
Ukraine remains sovereign, democratic, and under Zelensky.
russia is now way further from reaching its strategic goals than it was in March 2022
It failed.
Ukraine remains sovereign, democratic, and under Zelensky.
russia is now way further from reaching its strategic goals than it was in March 2022
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4/11 Ukraine’s initial strategic goal was simple:
Prevent russia from achieving its strategic objectives.
That meant preserving sovereignty, resisting regime change, and maintaining democracy.
Ukraine has succeeded in this core mission
Prevent russia from achieving its strategic objectives.
That meant preserving sovereignty, resisting regime change, and maintaining democracy.
Ukraine has succeeded in this core mission
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5/11 Since then, both sides have adopted secondary goals.
Ukraine aims to liberate territories.
russia seeks to secure a landbridge to Transnistria and fully occupy eastern and southern regions of Ukraine.
Neither side is fully achieving its secondary goals
Ukraine aims to liberate territories.
russia seeks to secure a landbridge to Transnistria and fully occupy eastern and southern regions of Ukraine.
Neither side is fully achieving its secondary goals
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6/11 Ukraine has regained significant territory.
russia occupied around 30% of Ukraine in March 2022; today, only around 19%.
However, full liberation would require way more aid, mobilization, time, patience, and tech advantages.
Map: ISW
russia occupied around 30% of Ukraine in March 2022; today, only around 19%.
However, full liberation would require way more aid, mobilization, time, patience, and tech advantages.
Map: ISW
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7/11 russia has secured a land bridge to Crimea but failed to reach Transnistria or fully occupy the regions it wants.
It has mobilized, used prisoners, mercenaries, and north korean troops, and shifted to a war economy—yet controls less land than it did in March 2022
It has mobilized, used prisoners, mercenaries, and north korean troops, and shifted to a war economy—yet controls less land than it did in March 2022
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8/11 russia hasn’t captured any of the 23 regional capital and special status cities that Ukraine controlled at the beginning of the full-scale war.
For an invading force with full initiative, this is a major failure—especially after 3,5 years and over a million casualties
For an invading force with full initiative, this is a major failure—especially after 3,5 years and over a million casualties
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9/11 To put this in perspective:
Imagine if the US, after 3,5 years in Iraq, controlled less territory than it did one month into the invasion—and failed to capture a single regional capital city.
That would have been seen as a catastrophic failure.
russia’s invasion is one
Imagine if the US, after 3,5 years in Iraq, controlled less territory than it did one month into the invasion—and failed to capture a single regional capital city.
That would have been seen as a catastrophic failure.
russia’s invasion is one
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10/11 Despite its failures, russia remains dangerous.
The war has made it more authoritarian, militarized, and aggressive.
But its war effort is economically and demographically unsustainable—which is even acknowledged by some russian officials
The war has made it more authoritarian, militarized, and aggressive.
But its war effort is economically and demographically unsustainable—which is even acknowledged by some russian officials
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11/11 Bottom line:
Ukraine is achieving its initial strategic goal—survival as a sovereign state.
russia is not.
While both sides struggle with secondary goals, Ukraine’s success in its core mission makes it the current strategic victor in a war that, unfortunately, isn’t over
Ukraine is achieving its initial strategic goal—survival as a sovereign state.
russia is not.
While both sides struggle with secondary goals, Ukraine’s success in its core mission makes it the current strategic victor in a war that, unfortunately, isn’t over