1/12 🚨 THREAD: Putin’s 10 Biggest Mistakes of the War Once seen as...
Joni Askola@joni_askola
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Jul 28, 2025
~2 min read
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1/12 🚨 THREAD: Putin’s 10 Biggest Mistakes of the War
Once seen as a ruthless strategic mastermind, Putin’s failed full-scale invasion of Ukraine exposed a long list of miscalculations. These will define his legacy — and accelerate russia’s decline.
Let’s break them down 👇
Once seen as a ruthless strategic mastermind, Putin’s failed full-scale invasion of Ukraine exposed a long list of miscalculations. These will define his legacy — and accelerate russia’s decline.
Let’s break them down 👇
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2/12 🇷🇺 Mistake #1: Launching the war at all
Putin overreached. russia cannot achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine.
The war has drained russia militarily, economically, and diplomatically. It was a war he could never win
Putin overreached. russia cannot achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine.
The war has drained russia militarily, economically, and diplomatically. It was a war he could never win
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3/12 🇺🇦 Mistake #2: Underestimating Ukraine
Putin completely misread Ukraine’s will to fight. He expected collapse.
Instead, Ukraine unified, resisted, and gained global support. A catastrophic miscalculation
Putin completely misread Ukraine’s will to fight. He expected collapse.
Instead, Ukraine unified, resisted, and gained global support. A catastrophic miscalculation
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4/12 Mistake #3: Invading with too small a force
russia tried to shock Ukraine into surrender with a limited force. It failed.
Ukraine didn’t bend — it fought back harder. russia lacked the manpower to achieve a quick victory
russia tried to shock Ukraine into surrender with a limited force. It failed.
Ukraine didn’t bend — it fought back harder. russia lacked the manpower to achieve a quick victory
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5/12 ⏳ Mistake #4: Waiting 8 years to escalate into a full-scale war
If Putin wanted a full-scale war, 2014-2015 was his window.
Ukraine was more divided and less prepared.
By 2022, it was stronger, more united, and ready to fight
If Putin wanted a full-scale war, 2014-2015 was his window.
Ukraine was more divided and less prepared.
By 2022, it was stronger, more united, and ready to fight
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6/12 Mistake #5: Making the war existential
Putin framed the war as a fight for russia’s survival.
That’s dangerous when you aren’t winning.
It leaves no room to retreat — and raises the cost of failure
Putin framed the war as a fight for russia’s survival.
That’s dangerous when you aren’t winning.
It leaves no room to retreat — and raises the cost of failure
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7/12 Mistake #6: Turning it into a genocidal war
By denying Ukraine’s right to exist and using genocidal rhetoric, Putin guaranteed fierce resistance and long-term Western support for Ukraine.
It backfired massively
By denying Ukraine’s right to exist and using genocidal rhetoric, Putin guaranteed fierce resistance and long-term Western support for Ukraine.
It backfired massively
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8/12 💵 Mistake #7: Leaving hundreds of billions abroad
russia kept massive reserves in Western banks — and lost access to them.
Over $300 billion in central bank assets were frozen after the invasion.
A staggering self-inflicted wound in a war that demands long-term funding
russia kept massive reserves in Western banks — and lost access to them.
Over $300 billion in central bank assets were frozen after the invasion.
A staggering self-inflicted wound in a war that demands long-term funding
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9/12 🌍 Mistake #8: Sacrificing global influence
By going all-in on Ukraine, Putin left allies like Armenia, Syria, and others exposed.
russia’s soft power and strategic interests collapsed
By going all-in on Ukraine, Putin left allies like Armenia, Syria, and others exposed.
russia’s soft power and strategic interests collapsed
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10/12 Mistake #9: Trusting Prigozhin and Wagner
Wagner helped a lot during the invasion — but the 2023 mutiny humiliated Putin and exposed massive cracks in his control.
Empowering warlords always comes with a price
Wagner helped a lot during the invasion — but the 2023 mutiny humiliated Putin and exposed massive cracks in his control.
Empowering warlords always comes with a price
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11/12 Mistake #10: Uniting and expanding NATO
Putin wanted to weaken NATO. Instead, he revived it.
Finland and Sweden joined. Defense budgets soared.
russia’s border with NATO just got a lot longer
Putin wanted to weaken NATO. Instead, he revived it.
Finland and Sweden joined. Defense budgets soared.
russia’s border with NATO just got a lot longer
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12/12 Putin’s legacy won’t be strategic brilliance — it will be overreach.
He launched a war he can’t win, misjudged Ukraine, and weakened russia. Like many dictators before him, he believed his own myth.
That will be his sorry legacy — and he earned it
He launched a war he can’t win, misjudged Ukraine, and weakened russia. Like many dictators before him, he believed his own myth.
That will be his sorry legacy — and he earned it