1/10 The Russian narrative is starting to collapse. For years,...
Joni Askola@joni_askola
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Nov 27, 2025
~2 min read
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1/10 The Russian narrative is starting to collapse.
For years, Moscow pushed the idea that Ukraine was doomed and Russia unstoppable. That narrative is collapsing under the weight of reality.
Here’s why Russia is failing strategically despite tactical gains👇
For years, Moscow pushed the idea that Ukraine was doomed and Russia unstoppable. That narrative is collapsing under the weight of reality.
Here’s why Russia is failing strategically despite tactical gains👇
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2/10 Russia’s goals were clear: overthrow Ukraine’s government, install a puppet regime, rewrite its constitution, and embed permanent Russian military control.
Nearly four years later, none of this has happened. And it’s far from happening
Nearly four years later, none of this has happened. And it’s far from happening
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3/10 Instead, Russia is still fighting for Donbas and is further from its strategic objectives than in March 2022.
That is not a tactical setback. It is a strategic failure.
The Kremlin started this war with goals it cannot reach
That is not a tactical setback. It is a strategic failure.
The Kremlin started this war with goals it cannot reach
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4/10 Yes, Ukraine struggles on the front. Yes, it has manpower issues. Yes, Russia advances slowly.
But these gains are costly and insignificant compared to Russia’s original objectives.
One more city will not change the war's outcome
But these gains are costly and insignificant compared to Russia’s original objectives.
One more city will not change the war's outcome
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5/10 Russia has over a million casualties and occupies 20% of Ukraine, down from nearly 30% in March 2022.
At this pace, it will exhaust its manpower before achieving anything meaningful.
Is Moscow ready to lose another million soldiers and years just to take Donbas?
At this pace, it will exhaust its manpower before achieving anything meaningful.
Is Moscow ready to lose another million soldiers and years just to take Donbas?
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6/10 Meanwhile, Ukraine is not a hopeless underdog.
Its armed forces are now Europe’s most capable, innovative, and battle-tested.
They impose extremely high costs on Russia for every tactical success
Its armed forces are now Europe’s most capable, innovative, and battle-tested.
They impose extremely high costs on Russia for every tactical success
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7/10 Ukraine’s strike campaign inside Russia is changing the game. Oil refineries and defense factories are hit weekly. Logistics are disrupted.
For the first time, strikes behind enemy lines matter more than small territorial shifts. This is how Russia’s war machine cracks
For the first time, strikes behind enemy lines matter more than small territorial shifts. This is how Russia’s war machine cracks
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8/10 Russia’s economy is in serious trouble.
Sanctions bite harder, energy infrastructure burns, and Moscow faces growing costs it cannot sustain forever.
This war is unsustainable for Russia
Sanctions bite harder, energy infrastructure burns, and Moscow faces growing costs it cannot sustain forever.
This war is unsustainable for Russia
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9/10 Europe is finally waking up, even if slowly.
It backs Ukraine against imposed deals, moves to seize Russian frozen assets, and recognizes that if Ukraine loses, Europe is in danger.
The tide is turning
It backs Ukraine against imposed deals, moves to seize Russian frozen assets, and recognizes that if Ukraine loses, Europe is in danger.
The tide is turning
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10/10 Despite Russian propaganda wins and Ukraine’s real struggles, the big picture is clear:
Russia cannot achieve its strategic goals. Ukraine suffers, but it is winning because Russia is failing.
The faster Ukraine scales up drones and missiles, the faster the war ends
Russia cannot achieve its strategic goals. Ukraine suffers, but it is winning because Russia is failing.
The faster Ukraine scales up drones and missiles, the faster the war ends
