This man knows the market. He predicted: 1) Dot-com Bubble (2000)...
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan
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Apr 08, 2025
~2 min read
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This man knows the market.
He predicted:
1) Dot-com Bubble (2000)
2) Great Recession (2008)
3) The COVID Bubble (2021)
Howard Marks just went on Bloomberg and said "tariffs are changing everything."
Here is his latest warning: 🧵
He predicted:
1) Dot-com Bubble (2000)
2) Great Recession (2008)
3) The COVID Bubble (2021)
Howard Marks just went on Bloomberg and said "tariffs are changing everything."
Here is his latest warning: 🧵
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1/ This is the biggest change of sea since World War II.
After the war a regime of economic integration was deliberately picked to make countries interdependent to prevent another war.
This came to known as globalization.
Tariffs signs a step back from this regime.
After the war a regime of economic integration was deliberately picked to make countries interdependent to prevent another war.
This came to known as globalization.
Tariffs signs a step back from this regime.
0:25
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2/ Global trade was the biggest driver of prosperity in the last 80 years.
Marks likens it to a wave that lifted all boats.
United States also massively benefited from this.
How?
It turned from an manufacturing economy to a service economy.
Marks likens it to a wave that lifted all boats.
United States also massively benefited from this.
How?
It turned from an manufacturing economy to a service economy.
0:18
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3/ Global trade unleashed potential for every country.
Because of the global trade, US could outsource low value manufacturing from poorer countries and focused on high value services.
If people in the US aren't assembling iPhones for $1/hour, this is because of free trade.
Tariffs threaten to change this.
Because of the global trade, US could outsource low value manufacturing from poorer countries and focused on high value services.
If people in the US aren't assembling iPhones for $1/hour, this is because of free trade.
Tariffs threaten to change this.
0:47
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4/ Inflation will skyrocket.
Global trade and cheap manufacturing lead to 40% reduction in prices of durable goods despite the fact that the USD lost 75% of its value since the World War II.
This won't happen anymore.
Costs will increase and goods will become more expensive.
Global trade and cheap manufacturing lead to 40% reduction in prices of durable goods despite the fact that the USD lost 75% of its value since the World War II.
This won't happen anymore.
Costs will increase and goods will become more expensive.
0:50
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5/ It's a time of dislocation.
The uncertainty is as high as it ever has been, making it harder to measure whether the market decline is overdone.
There is no data to look because we are going through this for the first time.
This is the big challenge we are facing right now.
The uncertainty is as high as it ever has been, making it harder to measure whether the market decline is overdone.
There is no data to look because we are going through this for the first time.
This is the big challenge we are facing right now.
0:55
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6/ It's not a time to be fearful.
Prices for the shares of the highest quality companies in the world have gone for a sale.
Whether it's adequate reduction to buy a big chunk is a different question but if you are in this for a long term, you should at least take a hard look.
Prices for the shares of the highest quality companies in the world have gone for a sale.
Whether it's adequate reduction to buy a big chunk is a different question but if you are in this for a long term, you should at least take a hard look.
1:30
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7/ US is still the best place to invest.
It's just less of a best than it used to be.
The worst possible consequence of this situation is the USD losing its reserve currency status.
This will make US Government debt no more on paper, but a reality to be faced.
It's just less of a best than it used to be.
The worst possible consequence of this situation is the USD losing its reserve currency status.
This will make US Government debt no more on paper, but a reality to be faced.
1:57
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8/ What's the right thing to do?
US companies are still the bests in the world.
Their shares have fallen significantly from peaks and investors thinking long-term should start taking advantage of this.
This should be done without betting the house and keeping in mind that further turmoil is always possible.
US companies are still the bests in the world.
Their shares have fallen significantly from peaks and investors thinking long-term should start taking advantage of this.
This should be done without betting the house and keeping in mind that further turmoil is always possible.
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Join 14,000+ readers to become a better investor.
You will get a free e-book when you join 👇
capitalist-letters.com