Howard Marks just went on Bloomberg. Not to sell fear. Not to time...
Kintsugi Investing@kintsugiinvest
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Apr 08, 2025
~3 min read
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Howard Marks just went on Bloomberg.
Not to sell fear.
Not to time markets.
But to explain how Liberation Day redefines how we should think about investing.
Here are my 2-min insights from the full interview:🧵
Not to sell fear.
Not to time markets.
But to explain how Liberation Day redefines how we should think about investing.
Here are my 2-min insights from the full interview:🧵
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1) The world isn’t ending.
But the rules are changing.
For decades, investors benefited from one major tailwind: globalization.
Trade was open. Supply chains were efficient. Goods were cheap.
That tailwind is fading.
But the rules are changing.
For decades, investors benefited from one major tailwind: globalization.
Trade was open. Supply chains were efficient. Goods were cheap.
That tailwind is fading.
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2) Instead, we’re entering an era of fragmentation.
Countries are rethinking trade.
Tariffs are rising.
Domestic production is being prioritized—even if it’s more expensive.
That has real consequences for economies, inflation, and asset prices.
Countries are rethinking trade.
Tariffs are rising.
Domestic production is being prioritized—even if it’s more expensive.
That has real consequences for economies, inflation, and asset prices.
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3) This matters because trade isn’t just a political issue—it’s an economic engine.
When nations specialize and trade efficiently, everyone benefits:
• Lower prices
• Greater productivity
• Broader access to goods
Undoing that comes at a cost.
When nations specialize and trade efficiently, everyone benefits:
• Lower prices
• Greater productivity
• Broader access to goods
Undoing that comes at a cost.
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4) One of the most underappreciated effects of globalization was how much it kept inflation in check.
As global trade expanded, the cost of many goods fell—dramatically.
That helped central banks. It helped consumers.
It helped investors.
As global trade expanded, the cost of many goods fell—dramatically.
That helped central banks. It helped consumers.
It helped investors.
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5) But when trade contracts, cost pressures rise.
Domestic manufacturing often means higher wages, higher input costs, and less efficiency.
This isn’t inherently bad—but it is inflationary.
It changes the assumptions we’ve relied on for decades.
Domestic manufacturing often means higher wages, higher input costs, and less efficiency.
This isn’t inherently bad—but it is inflationary.
It changes the assumptions we’ve relied on for decades.
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6) So what do you do with this information?
You rethink the context for every investing decision.
For example:
If inflation is structurally higher, then valuation multiples may need to adjust lower.
The cost of capital rises. Discount rates matter again.
You rethink the context for every investing decision.
For example:
If inflation is structurally higher, then valuation multiples may need to adjust lower.
The cost of capital rises. Discount rates matter again.
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7) Howard Marks isn’t saying “sell everything.”
He’s saying: recalibrate.
Don’t rely on old models in a new world.
Assume less mean reversion and more regime change.
Be intentional about the risks you’re underwriting.
He’s saying: recalibrate.
Don’t rely on old models in a new world.
Assume less mean reversion and more regime change.
Be intentional about the risks you’re underwriting.
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8) Another key point:
Forecasting doesn’t work in environments like this.
We can’t reliably predict what policies, partnerships, or power dynamics will look like 6–12 months out.
That’s not a flaw—it’s reality.
Forecasting doesn’t work in environments like this.
We can’t reliably predict what policies, partnerships, or power dynamics will look like 6–12 months out.
That’s not a flaw—it’s reality.
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9) So if we can’t forecast precisely, what can we do?
We anchor to probabilities, positioning, and price.
Instead of trying to predict, focus on how assets are priced relative to this new backdrop.
Then ask: is that reasonable?
We anchor to probabilities, positioning, and price.
Instead of trying to predict, focus on how assets are priced relative to this new backdrop.
Then ask: is that reasonable?
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10) When uncertainty is high, discipline matters more.
Use volatility as a lens for discovery, not avoidance.
The best opportunities often arise when others are hesitant—but you must stay grounded in logic, not emotion.
Use volatility as a lens for discovery, not avoidance.
The best opportunities often arise when others are hesitant—but you must stay grounded in logic, not emotion.
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11) And finally—don’t confuse falling prices with rising risk.
Markets go on sale. That’s part of the cycle.
The critical question is not, “Will it go lower?”
It’s: “Am I being compensated fairly for the risk I’m taking?”
Markets go on sale. That’s part of the cycle.
The critical question is not, “Will it go lower?”
It’s: “Am I being compensated fairly for the risk I’m taking?”
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12) Despite these shifts, the U.S. still remains a strong place to invest.
It has deep capital markets, world-class innovation, and a rule of law that—while evolving—still outperforms most alternatives.
But the “automatic best” label?
That’s now a judgment, not a given.
It has deep capital markets, world-class innovation, and a rule of law that—while evolving—still outperforms most alternatives.
But the “automatic best” label?
That’s now a judgment, not a given.
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13) Howard Marks isn’t offering a market call.
He’s offering perspective.
This moment requires more than just reacting.
It calls for re-evaluating how we invest—and why.
The world is shifting. Smart investors will shift with it.
He’s offering perspective.
This moment requires more than just reacting.
It calls for re-evaluating how we invest—and why.
The world is shifting. Smart investors will shift with it.
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We're Zee & @thehowietan:
• Financially-free investors
• Focused on resilient investing
• Passionate about helping others build & repair portfolios
Follow @kintsugiinvest for more.
If this was useful, Like & Retweet so others can learn too!
• Financially-free investors
• Focused on resilient investing
• Passionate about helping others build & repair portfolios
Follow @kintsugiinvest for more.
If this was useful, Like & Retweet so others can learn too!
Kintsugi Investing@kintsugiinvest
Howard Marks just went on Bloomberg.
Not to sell fear.
Not to time markets.
But to explain how Liberation Day redefines how we should think about investing.
Here are my 2-min insights from the full interview:🧵
Not to sell fear.
Not to time markets.
But to explain how Liberation Day redefines how we should think about investing.
Here are my 2-min insights from the full interview:🧵
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• Market insights
• In-depth breakdowns
That help investors learn and sharpen their knowledge about the market.
Join here: tinyurl.com/kintsuginewsle…
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@thehowietan Link to interview: https://youtu. be/KpnUyGM5M-I