This man wrote 10 lines studied even by the smartest investors. He...
Kintsugi Investing@kintsugiinvest
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Sep 17, 2025
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This man wrote 10 lines studied even by the smartest investors.
He doesn’t run a hedge fund.
He doesn’t post on X.
Yet, his 10 rules are more useful than 10,000 hours of CNBC.
Here's Bob Ferrell's "common sense" rules to navigate uncertain markets:🧵
He doesn’t run a hedge fund.
He doesn’t post on X.
Yet, his 10 rules are more useful than 10,000 hours of CNBC.
Here's Bob Ferrell's "common sense" rules to navigate uncertain markets:🧵
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1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
Prices don’t stay extreme forever.
For eg: The S&P 500 dropped 34% in March 2020 — then fully recovered by August.
Don’t confuse short-term extremes with long-term direction.
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
Big upswings often lead to big downswings.
For eg: The tech bubble of 2000 pushed prices way too high. The crash that followed wiped out trillions.
Prices don’t stay extreme forever.
For eg: The S&P 500 dropped 34% in March 2020 — then fully recovered by August.
Don’t confuse short-term extremes with long-term direction.
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
Big upswings often lead to big downswings.
For eg: The tech bubble of 2000 pushed prices way too high. The crash that followed wiped out trillions.
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2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
Bubbles create busts.
For eg: The dot-com bubble drove tech way up...and then crashed the Nasdaq by ~78%.
Overreaction works both ways.
Bubbles create busts.
For eg: The dot-com bubble drove tech way up...and then crashed the Nasdaq by ~78%.
Overreaction works both ways.
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3. There are no new eras, excesses are never permanent.
“This time is different” is the most expensive phrase in investing.
For eg: In 2021, pre-profit hot stocks were "unstoppable." In 2022, they weren’t.
“This time is different” is the most expensive phrase in investing.
For eg: In 2021, pre-profit hot stocks were "unstoppable." In 2022, they weren’t.
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4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
Fast moves don't end gently.
For eg: Bitcoin rose 7x in a year, then crashed 75%.
Up fast = down fast.
Fast moves don't end gently.
For eg: Bitcoin rose 7x in a year, then crashed 75%.
Up fast = down fast.
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5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
People chase comfort, not value.
For eg: Retail flooded in near market highs in 2021 — then fled in 2022 when prices dropped.
The crowd usually buys late and sells early.
People chase comfort, not value.
For eg: Retail flooded in near market highs in 2021 — then fled in 2022 when prices dropped.
The crowd usually buys late and sells early.
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6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
Having a plan is easy.
Sticking to it is hard.
For eg: Many sold in March 2020 at the bottom — then missed the full recovery that followed.
Emotions crush strategy.
Having a plan is easy.
Sticking to it is hard.
For eg: Many sold in March 2020 at the bottom — then missed the full recovery that followed.
Emotions crush strategy.
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7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.
If only a few stocks are rising, it’s not strength — it’s a warning.
For eg: In 2023, 7 tech giants drove most of the S&P 500. That’s not healthy.
If only a few stocks are rising, it’s not strength — it’s a warning.
For eg: In 2023, 7 tech giants drove most of the S&P 500. That’s not healthy.
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8. Bear markets have three stages — sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.
The last stage is the hardest — slow, painful, and full of false hope.
For eg: The 2008 crash didn’t end after the first fall. It dragged on for months.
The last stage is the hardest — slow, painful, and full of false hope.
For eg: The 2008 crash didn’t end after the first fall. It dragged on for months.
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9. When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.
If everyone is bullish, who’s left to buy?
For eg: In Jan 2022, most analysts predicted a strong year. What followed was one of the worst markets in over a decade.
If everyone is bullish, who’s left to buy?
For eg: In Jan 2022, most analysts predicted a strong year. What followed was one of the worst markets in over a decade.
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10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.
Everyone looks smart when prices go up.
But bear markets are where fortunes are made...if you can survive them.
Buy low only works when you’re willing to live through pain.
Everyone looks smart when prices go up.
But bear markets are where fortunes are made...if you can survive them.
Buy low only works when you’re willing to live through pain.
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Farrell’s rules aren’t strategies.
They’re reminders:
• Markets swing
• Emotions lie
• History repeats
Ignore these truths, and the market will teach them to you...the hard way.
They’re reminders:
• Markets swing
• Emotions lie
• History repeats
Ignore these truths, and the market will teach them to you...the hard way.
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We're Zee & @thehowietan:
• Contrarian investors
• Focused on resilient investing
• On a mission to help everyday investors build & repair portfolios
Follow @kintsugiinvest for more.
If this was useful, Like & Retweet so others can learn too.
• Contrarian investors
• Focused on resilient investing
• On a mission to help everyday investors build & repair portfolios
Follow @kintsugiinvest for more.
If this was useful, Like & Retweet so others can learn too.
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