How to manage Facebook earnings volatility and what to expect for...
Publisher in a Box@publisherinabox
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Mar 11, 2025
~5 min read
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How to manage Facebook earnings volatility and what to expect for the first 6 months of the year 👇 🧵
Facebook earnings volatility can be rough and distressing sometimes. If your pages are your primary source of income, this volatility can be downright anxiety inducing.
I like to compare it to day trading of stocks versus long term investing.
Day trading is extremely stressful and you're constantly glued to your trading app, trying to eke out half a percent of growth here and there. You can make a good living doing it - but man is it stressful and the vast majority of day traders end up moving back in to their mothers' basements.
Long term investing is another beast. Do your research and learn the game well - then do it consistently, without emotion and check in every week or month. And make sure you're diversified while you're at it, or if you're really good and sitting on a great asset, then put all your effort into that, but be prepared to be anxious when volatility hits.
The sweet spot for Facebook monetization is somewhere in between the day trading versus long term trading approach. In the beginning, check daily or every couple days to see if any pivots are needed, when you get into a good rhythm and level of reach growth then start checking every week or so.
Once you're in the game for a while, you start to see trends. For example - January reach and earnings are super volatile, so are Q3 reach and earnings. Q2 and Q4 are much more steady. You'll also notice trends within certain months as well (like how we almost always see a dip in mid January like in the screenshot attached).
It helps to compare your results for the last period versus the same period exactly a year ago. You'll find not much changes and you'll find, in the vast majority of cases, it's not the end of the world and things pick up again.
Here's an example of RPM trends for website traffic to expect in the first 6 months of the year for a health news website. These types of RPM trends are indicative of the advertising industry at large, so you'll find similar trends for Facebook Bonus / Creator Monetization earnings as well.
Please reshare + comment if you like this kind of content, so I know to make more of it!
Facebook earnings volatility can be rough and distressing sometimes. If your pages are your primary source of income, this volatility can be downright anxiety inducing.
I like to compare it to day trading of stocks versus long term investing.
Day trading is extremely stressful and you're constantly glued to your trading app, trying to eke out half a percent of growth here and there. You can make a good living doing it - but man is it stressful and the vast majority of day traders end up moving back in to their mothers' basements.
Long term investing is another beast. Do your research and learn the game well - then do it consistently, without emotion and check in every week or month. And make sure you're diversified while you're at it, or if you're really good and sitting on a great asset, then put all your effort into that, but be prepared to be anxious when volatility hits.
The sweet spot for Facebook monetization is somewhere in between the day trading versus long term trading approach. In the beginning, check daily or every couple days to see if any pivots are needed, when you get into a good rhythm and level of reach growth then start checking every week or so.
Once you're in the game for a while, you start to see trends. For example - January reach and earnings are super volatile, so are Q3 reach and earnings. Q2 and Q4 are much more steady. You'll also notice trends within certain months as well (like how we almost always see a dip in mid January like in the screenshot attached).
It helps to compare your results for the last period versus the same period exactly a year ago. You'll find not much changes and you'll find, in the vast majority of cases, it's not the end of the world and things pick up again.
Here's an example of RPM trends for website traffic to expect in the first 6 months of the year for a health news website. These types of RPM trends are indicative of the advertising industry at large, so you'll find similar trends for Facebook Bonus / Creator Monetization earnings as well.
Please reshare + comment if you like this kind of content, so I know to make more of it!
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This is the RPM for Jan. 4 to Feb. 2 2025 for a health news site we run, relative to the same period last year.
RPM’s are quite a bit lower this year, and in general are very low in January, and this January was especially low. This happens at the beginning of the year and at beginning of quarters, but we also need to figure out what we might be doing to contribute to the 14% decline year over year.
My hunch is that a chunk of the decline is due to the traffic falling mid month right around the start of the Trump administration which started sucking all of the air from the ether when it comes to attention. As you can see from all of the Trump-focused posts on most pages.
Should we run more political content on the health sites or will our audience turn on us with pitchforks? Or do we wait it out? These are the types of analyses one must make and decide their strategies moving forward.
RPM’s are quite a bit lower this year, and in general are very low in January, and this January was especially low. This happens at the beginning of the year and at beginning of quarters, but we also need to figure out what we might be doing to contribute to the 14% decline year over year.
My hunch is that a chunk of the decline is due to the traffic falling mid month right around the start of the Trump administration which started sucking all of the air from the ether when it comes to attention. As you can see from all of the Trump-focused posts on most pages.
Should we run more political content on the health sites or will our audience turn on us with pitchforks? Or do we wait it out? These are the types of analyses one must make and decide their strategies moving forward.
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RPM for March last year - as you can see it’s now starting to stablize at a more normal rate the later we get into the year and especially towards the end of the quarter where RPM's are highest.
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April 2024 RPM - holding steady but a bit lower as it's the beginning of the quarter.
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June RPM last year… slightly higher as it’s end of quarter and also in tandem with us driving more traffic.
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As you can see, there's a lot one cannot control that impact RPM (i.e. advertisers' budgets and the time of the year) but there are things we can control (traffic flow to site, ad density, etc)
Our takeaways are:
1. Drive more traffic to the site so as to drive up RPM's, as more traffic = higher RPM's.
2. If a Facebook Page is simply throttled or acting lame when it comes to traffic for a particular month, we will re-route traffic from other Pages or sources to this site in order to help bridge the gap and keep a steadier traffic base, thus keeping RPM's more stable.
3. We would consider increasing the ad density during lower RPM times.
4. We will and have reviewed the content we've been pushing out to ensure that we are selecting more high RPM topics and avoiding low RPM topics. Especially avoid anything that advertisers don't like - as we were choosing a lot of articles that would drive up engagement and reach on the page, but may not have necessarily come with high RPM's.
5. Pray.
Our takeaways are:
1. Drive more traffic to the site so as to drive up RPM's, as more traffic = higher RPM's.
2. If a Facebook Page is simply throttled or acting lame when it comes to traffic for a particular month, we will re-route traffic from other Pages or sources to this site in order to help bridge the gap and keep a steadier traffic base, thus keeping RPM's more stable.
3. We would consider increasing the ad density during lower RPM times.
4. We will and have reviewed the content we've been pushing out to ensure that we are selecting more high RPM topics and avoiding low RPM topics. Especially avoid anything that advertisers don't like - as we were choosing a lot of articles that would drive up engagement and reach on the page, but may not have necessarily come with high RPM's.
5. Pray.
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These are examples of strategies we follow to continuously improve earnings and decrease volatility.
You can do these kinds of analyses yourself and pivot accordingly, but pivot you must!
We do this for our partners in our turnkey monetization partnership program, and we show clients how to do this themselves for their enterprises through our elite consulting program.
DM me if you'd like to learn more.
You can do these kinds of analyses yourself and pivot accordingly, but pivot you must!
We do this for our partners in our turnkey monetization partnership program, and we show clients how to do this themselves for their enterprises through our elite consulting program.
DM me if you'd like to learn more.