1/15 Propaganda can't change the facts on the ground: russia is...
Joni Askola@joni_askola
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Sep 10, 2024
~3 min read
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1/15 Propaganda can't change the facts on the ground: russia is losing its war in Ukraine.
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2/15 russia is involved in a war in Ukraine that it cannot win because its strategic goals are unreachable. As a result, it has no incentive to stop the invasion, as doing so would signify a defeat. By continuing the war, russia can avoid acknowledging that loss.
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3/15 russia's objectives of 'denazification and demilitarization' require it to enforce a regime change and establish a pro-russian puppet government, accompanied by a russian military presence, to fulfill its strategic aims—an outcome that is very unlikely to occur.
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4/15 russia currently controls significantly less territory in Ukraine than it did a month into the war, and it has failed to capture any of the 23 regional capitals and special status cities that Ukraine held at the onset of the invasion. That is pathetic at best!
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5/15 russian propaganda has been highly effective at obscuring its numerous failures and fostering pessimism about the war. The presence of disinformation agents and unwitting supporters can be found throughout various spheres.
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6/15 If we had been told in March 2022 what the situation would be in August 2024, we would have been astonished and regarded the current outcome as a significant victory for Ukraine and a massive defeat for russia.
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7/15 russia is spending exorbitant sums on unscrupulous Western influencers to promote its propaganda and distract people from the fact that it is losing. If russia were winning, it wouldn't have to resort to such tactics.
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8/15 Despite mobilizing 300,000 men, recruiting hundreds of thousands of volunteers, depleting its prisons, and conscripting men from occupied areas, russia has accomplished very little and has suffered over 600,000 total casualties. This failure will mark history!
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9/15 russia has required significant economic support from countries like china and india, as well as military assistance from china, north korea, belarus, and iran, to sustain its efforts in the war thus far, all without coming anywhere near its strategic objectives.
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10/15 russia has managed to maintain its unsuccessful invasion by relying on its extensive Soviet-era stockpiles of equipment. However, its losses far exceed its production rates, and these large reserves are gradually depleting. This will become a massive issue for russia.
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11/15 russia has had to significantly raise wages and bonuses to recruit enough personnel for its war efforts. These costs are expected to continue rising, and the recruitment contributes to inflation due to the acute labor shortage in the country.
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12/15 russia's inflation has worsened to the extent that it has had to raise its key interest rate from 7.5% in June 2023 to 18% now, with further increases likely needed in the future. This situation is expected to deteriorate as the war continues.
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13/15 In 2023, Prigozhin and Wagner attempted a coup, but the russian population's response was minimal, similar to their lack of reaction when Ukraine seized parts of the Kursk region. This indicates that Putin's regime is not very stable.
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14/15 The war will eventually come to an end when the average russian grows weary of the economic and human toll it has taken. While this may take some time, it will conclude with a humiliating defeat for russia. No amount of propaganda can alter that reality.
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15/15 Source: economist.com/europe/2024/07…