1/11 Patience is key: what will happen when russia depletes its...
Joni Askola@joni_askola
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May 29, 2024
~2 min read
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1/11 Patience is key: what will happen when russia depletes its supply of Soviet-era equipment?
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2/11 In its invasion of Ukraine, russia is experiencing a greater loss of equipment than it can replace. Its reliance on substantial stocks of Soviet-era equipment is currently helping to offset the production deficit. Nonetheless, these reserves are expected to be exhausted within 18 to 24 months.
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3/11 After these supplies are depleted, russia's invasion won't abruptly come to an end, but sustaining it will become significantly more challenging for russia. Nevertheless, russia will still have a few alternatives for obtaining equipment from elsewhere.
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4/11 Putin replaced Shoigu with Belousov precisely due to this concern. russia will aim to boost production by that time, but achieving a sufficient increase is deemed unfeasible.
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5/11 russia will seek to purchase equipment from other sources, with china being a potential example. However, this approach could potentially expose china to sanctions, and it would still incur significant costs for russia.
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6/11 Around the same time or slightly before russia exhausts its Soviet-era equipment, the national wealth fund is projected to be depleted. Consequently, russia will need to finance its equipment acquisitions through deficits or by leveraging its natural resources.
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7/11 As with all things, patience is crucial. russia is not poised for sudden collapse, but the war will progressively become more challenging as it struggles to replace lost material and sanctions gradually take their toll.
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8/11 The impending equipment shortage will necessitate that russia either increase its war expenditure to procure weapons from abroad or increasingly rely solely on infantry. This will result in greater financial costs or heightened losses in terms of personnel.
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9/11 As losses mount and the war drags on, russians will eventually come to the realization that russia has been unable to capture any of the 23 regional capitals or special status cities in this unsuccessful invasion.
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10/11 In the long run, time is not in russia's favor, but we must remain patient and recognize that it will be a lengthy process to help russians understand that this war cannot be won.
