Sam Williamson (@SWilliamsonEcon)

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, up from 0.2% in July, lifting the annual inflation rate to 2.9%--the highest since the start of 2025. The upside surprise came from food and energy, both of which posted solid monthly gains. Core inflation, which strips out those volatile components, rose 0.3% ...

As football season kicks off, August’s jobs report may be the turnover that forces the Fed to change its playcalling—starting with a 25 basis point rate cut at its September meeting. Employers added only 22,000 jobs last month, well below the 75,000 expected, reinforcing the picture of a labor mark...

The July jobs report showed clear signs of cooling. Payrolls rose just +73k vs. ~110k expected, while downward revisions to May and June (-258k) dragged the 3-month average to ~35k. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Slower hiring and deep revisions point to a softening labor market, raising the odds o...

The July jobs report showed clear signs of cooling. Payrolls rose just +73k vs. ~110k expected, while downward revisions to May and June (-258k) dragged the 3-month average to ~35k. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Slower hiring and deep revisions point to a softening labor market, raising the odds o...

The Fed holds rates steady in July but downgrades its economic assessment—now sees growth as 'moderated in the first half of the year,' a shift from June’s view of 'solid' expansion. Notably, Govs. Waller and Bowman dissented—the first such high-level split since 1993. More commentary to follow from...

Consumer prices rose in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, matching expectations but suggesting companies may be starting to pass on tariff-related costs. Shelter remained the main driver, rising 0.2% month-over-month. While a September rate cut is still possible, the report likely reinforces the ...

The U.S. labor market continued to show resilience in June, with employers adding 147K jobs—nearly 40K more than expected. Revisions to March and April added another 16K, lifting the 3-month average to 150K. Unemployment edged down to 4.1%, while labor force participation held steady at 62.3%. With ...

#CPI inflation data came in cooler than expected, rising 0.1% last month and 2.4% over the last year. Goods prices were flat month-over-month, with tariff-sensitive items like autos and apparel seeing declines. Shelter remains the main driver, rising 0.3% m/m. While not enough for immediate Fed acti...

The May jobs report beat expectations with +139k added, but downward revisions to March and April (-95k) temper the gain. The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.2%, while the labor force participation fell slightly to 62.4%. The data supports the Fed’s view of a still-resilient labor market, likel...