Florida's housing downturn is entering a new stage: severe mortgage...
Nick Gerli@nickgerli1
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Jul 23, 2026
~4 min read
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Florida's housing downturn is entering a new stage: severe mortgage distress.
It now ranks #1 in the U.S. for foreclosures.
And we're starting to see listings like this, where the homeowner is trying to sell for $130,000 less than they paid in 2022.
That's a 40% loss in just four years.
Many people who bought near Florida's housing peak in 2022-23 are now running into financial trouble.
But what's remarkable is that mortgage distress is still nowhere near 2008-09 levels. Yet we're already seeing individual homes lose 40% of their value.
If this trend continues, today's discounts may only be the beginning.
Check the value estimate of any listing with Reventure's analyzer: reventure.app/listingtool
It now ranks #1 in the U.S. for foreclosures.
And we're starting to see listings like this, where the homeowner is trying to sell for $130,000 less than they paid in 2022.
That's a 40% loss in just four years.
Many people who bought near Florida's housing peak in 2022-23 are now running into financial trouble.
But what's remarkable is that mortgage distress is still nowhere near 2008-09 levels. Yet we're already seeing individual homes lose 40% of their value.
If this trend continues, today's discounts may only be the beginning.
Check the value estimate of any listing with Reventure's analyzer: reventure.app/listingtool
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1) This is quite literally post-crash pricing happening before our eyes across Florida.
In this case, the house is in Davenport, which is located between Orlando and Lakeland.
This was an area thart experienced a big spike in new home construction post-pandemic, and where values are now falling.
In this case, the house is in Davenport, which is located between Orlando and Lakeland.
This was an area thart experienced a big spike in new home construction post-pandemic, and where values are now falling.
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2) In the surrounding ZIP code, home values have been falling for four years in a row.
With YoY declines of -0.6%, -0.6%, -4.0%, and -4.2% the last four years.
But what's interesting here, is that is cumulative decline of about 10%.
Yet listings in this ZIP are going down as much as 40%.
With YoY declines of -0.6%, -0.6%, -4.0%, and -4.2% the last four years.
But what's interesting here, is that is cumulative decline of about 10%.
Yet listings in this ZIP are going down as much as 40%.
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3) That's because when there is distress, the pricing can drop much more than the market has dropped.
If you see an aggregate decline of 10% in a ZIP code, that means some listings in the area could be going down 20-40%.
If you see an aggregate decline of 10% in a ZIP code, that means some listings in the area could be going down 20-40%.
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4) According to data from ATTOM, Florida now ranks as the #1 state for foreclosures in the U.S.
One out of every 2,106 housing units is in foreclosure.
And in absolute terms, Florida has more foreclosures than California, despite having a population 45% smaller.
One out of every 2,106 housing units is in foreclosure.
And in absolute terms, Florida has more foreclosures than California, despite having a population 45% smaller.
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5) The listing above is a short sale, which happens prior to foreclosure.
The owner and lender are working together to try and sell the property, at a huge loss, prior to the lender having to try and take the property.
The owner and lender are working together to try and sell the property, at a huge loss, prior to the lender having to try and take the property.
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6) Currently, in Florida, if you type the word "short sale" in the Zillow listing keywords, there's over 2,700 listings that come up.
A majority of these listings are in central FL (Orlando, Davenport, Lakeland) and western Florida (Parrish, Pinellas County, Bradenton).
As well as Southwest Florida (Punta Gorda, Cape Coral).
A majority of these listings are in central FL (Orlando, Davenport, Lakeland) and western Florida (Parrish, Pinellas County, Bradenton).
As well as Southwest Florida (Punta Gorda, Cape Coral).
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7) These areas experienced massive booms on prices and new construction during the pandemic, and have experienced swift declines in inbound migration since then.
Leading to a reversion in the local housing market, where prices are dropping.
With many owners now running into financial difficulties and handing back the keys, or selling at steep losses.
Leading to a reversion in the local housing market, where prices are dropping.
With many owners now running into financial difficulties and handing back the keys, or selling at steep losses.
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8) Some in the comments below are asking if this is a "one-off", or if this more widespread.
It's definitely widespread.
Searching the 'short sale' filter on Zillow allows you to quickly uncover many other listings.
I posted about this one two days ago. Seller taking $109,000 loss in Parrish, down 35%.
It's definitely widespread.
Searching the 'short sale' filter on Zillow allows you to quickly uncover many other listings.
I posted about this one two days ago. Seller taking $109,000 loss in Parrish, down 35%.
Nick Gerli@nickgerli1
Sellers in Florida are beginning to do massive liquidations.
In some cases, taking $100K losses from peak prices.
This townhouse in Southwest Florida sold for $304k in 2023 as a brand-new build, right near the top of the market.
Just 3 years later, it's listed for $195k.
That's a $109,000 loss. (and 35% discount from the original purchase price)
And this isn't an isolated case.
Florida is now the #1 state for foreclosures and distressed sales in the U.S.
For buyers, that means that the biggest discounts are only just starting to emerge.
Use our Listing Analyzer to see how much we'd offer on homes in your ZIP Code: reventure.app/listingtool
In some cases, taking $100K losses from peak prices.
This townhouse in Southwest Florida sold for $304k in 2023 as a brand-new build, right near the top of the market.
Just 3 years later, it's listed for $195k.
That's a $109,000 loss. (and 35% discount from the original purchase price)
And this isn't an isolated case.
Florida is now the #1 state for foreclosures and distressed sales in the U.S.
For buyers, that means that the biggest discounts are only just starting to emerge.
Use our Listing Analyzer to see how much we'd offer on homes in your ZIP Code: reventure.app/listingtool
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9) However, what's fascinating, is that Florida's overall mortgage distress rates are not that historically high right now.
Yes, they're up, and now even above pre-pandemic.
But they're still way below their 2008-09 crash highs.
And yet, even with just a modest uptick in mortgage distress, we're seeing a wave of forced selling at losses.
Yes, they're up, and now even above pre-pandemic.
But they're still way below their 2008-09 crash highs.
And yet, even with just a modest uptick in mortgage distress, we're seeing a wave of forced selling at losses.
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10) The 90 day-delinquency rate in Florida was up to 1.3% in Q1 2026.
Which was the highest since 2018.
But you can see barely a blip on the radar to the 2008-09 crash, when the serious delinquency rate hit neary 9%.
Which was the highest since 2018.
But you can see barely a blip on the radar to the 2008-09 crash, when the serious delinquency rate hit neary 9%.
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11) Now - some will view this positively for Florida.
They'll say: "well, mortgage defaults are still not that bad, so no big deal".
But in reality, it is a big deal, because even with a modest uptick in defaults, we're seeing major distress play out on individual listings.
And values wall way harder than anyone realistically expected.
Suggesting that if mortgage delinquencies continue to creep up, we could see more downside.
They'll say: "well, mortgage defaults are still not that bad, so no big deal".
But in reality, it is a big deal, because even with a modest uptick in defaults, we're seeing major distress play out on individual listings.
And values wall way harder than anyone realistically expected.
Suggesting that if mortgage delinquencies continue to creep up, we could see more downside.
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12) Of course - this is all heavily dependent on location and neighborhood. And the individual seller situation.
Some cities in Florida are holding up better than others.
To increase your odds of negotiating a big discount, and finding the cheapest prices, utilize Reventure's Listing Analyzer.
On this house, we think a fair offer would be in the 180k-194k range.
Some cities in Florida are holding up better than others.
To increase your odds of negotiating a big discount, and finding the cheapest prices, utilize Reventure's Listing Analyzer.
On this house, we think a fair offer would be in the 180k-194k range.
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13) Specifically, you're going to want to know how the house you're looking at compares on appreciation to the surrounding ZIP code.
In this case, they've cut 40% while the ZIP is only down 2% in the same span.
In this case, they've cut 40% while the ZIP is only down 2% in the same span.
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14) You'll also want to understand the forecast 12-month forecast, as we believe it makes sense to buy ahead of the downturn, and bake that into your price.
Check the data for listings in your area now on Reveventure's listing tool. First listing analysis is free.
reventure.app/listingtool
Check the data for listings in your area now on Reveventure's listing tool. First listing analysis is free.
reventure.app/listingtool