Good morning X, on this 29 Dec the ever obliging PLA saw fit to...
Alessio Patalano@alessionaval
8 views
Dec 30, 2025
~3 min read
Advertisement
1
Good morning X, on this 29 Dec the ever obliging PLA saw fit to grace us all with some end of the year sparkle.
From their Weibo account, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command took the lead in launching the ex ‘Justice Mission 2025’.
A quick thread on early information and meaning:
From their Weibo account, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command took the lead in launching the ex ‘Justice Mission 2025’.
A quick thread on early information and meaning:
Byron Wan@Byron_Wan
🇨🇳 PLA Eastern Theater Command is dispatching its Army, Navy, Air Force and Rocket Force troops to conduct joint military drills, code-named “正义使命-2025” (Justice Mission 2025), around Taiwan from Dec 29 onwards.
weibo.com/7483054836/524…
weibo.com/7483054836/524…
2
First off - usual disclaimers - which in this case are very important:
A. The following is not about proficiency of execution - that is hard to assess without being embedded;
B. Lots of video releases which should be taken with care. Content for media is always scripted;
A. The following is not about proficiency of execution - that is hard to assess without being embedded;
B. Lots of video releases which should be taken with care. Content for media is always scripted;
3
Now, on to the exercises. This below is a good starting point. It creates a good operational framework to think about the exercise - decapitation.
This is a scenario in which the focus is taking out key government institutions in Taiwan. Take the head out to control the rest.
This is a scenario in which the focus is taking out key government institutions in Taiwan. Take the head out to control the rest.
Taiwan Security Monitor (台灣安全觀測站)@TaiwanMonitor
Today, the PLA's Eastern Theater Command launched the “Justice Mission–2025” exercises.
In an interview with Chinese state media, National Defense University professor Zhang Chi said “decapitation” is one of the key terms of this exercise. The drills conducted simulated strikes on important symbolic targets associated with the leaders of the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces.
This, he said, demonstrates that the PLA possesses strong capabilities and can carry out precise punitive actions against the chief ringleaders of “Taiwan independence” at any time.
In an interview with Chinese state media, National Defense University professor Zhang Chi said “decapitation” is one of the key terms of this exercise. The drills conducted simulated strikes on important symbolic targets associated with the leaders of the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces.
This, he said, demonstrates that the PLA possesses strong capabilities and can carry out precise punitive actions against the chief ringleaders of “Taiwan independence” at any time.
4
Before asking whether that is plausible and under what circumstances let us first review the evolving context of exercises.
A. Geography- map below v. helpful to track evolution.
3 points:
1. Exes are now comfortably enveloping Taiwan;
2. Stronger focus on internal sea control;
A. Geography- map below v. helpful to track evolution.
3 points:
1. Exes are now comfortably enveloping Taiwan;
2. Stronger focus on internal sea control;
Focus Taiwan (CNA English News)@Focus_Taiwan
The Chinese PLA has launched the "Justice Mission 2025" drills in five regions surrounding Taiwan. The exercises include sea-air combat patrols and simulated blockades, with live-fire drills scheduled to run through 6 p.m. Tuesday.
5
3. Stronger emphasis on this edition on ‘external’ sea denial;
@KTristanTang is your go to specialist to assess nuances and here he makes a couple of crucial points.
A. This ex (in part perhaps because of recent Sino-Japanese spat over Taiwan contingencies) has:
@KTristanTang is your go to specialist to assess nuances and here he makes a couple of crucial points.
A. This ex (in part perhaps because of recent Sino-Japanese spat over Taiwan contingencies) has:
K. Tristan Tang@KTristanTang
Early Information on the “Justice Mission 2025” Exercise
(1) Beginning the morning of December 29, 2025 (Taipei Time), China began releasing information on its “Justice Mission 2025” (正义使命-2025) military exercise encircling Taiwan. These announcements included Combat Readiness Patrols conducted on December 29 and the designation of live-fire exercise zones with maritime exclusion notices scheduled for December 30.
(2) Although the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command announced only five maritime exclusion, China’s Maritime Safety Administration in fact issued notices for a 6th and a 7th restricted area. Taken together, these zones would, in theory, completely sever Taiwan’s maritime routes linking the main island with Kinmen and Matsu.
(3) The language used in the official statements largely mirrors that of previous large-scale PLA military operations targeting Taiwan. The notable deviation, however, is the explicit reference to external-line multidimensional deterrence and denial (外线立体慑阻).
(1) Beginning the morning of December 29, 2025 (Taipei Time), China began releasing information on its “Justice Mission 2025” (正义使命-2025) military exercise encircling Taiwan. These announcements included Combat Readiness Patrols conducted on December 29 and the designation of live-fire exercise zones with maritime exclusion notices scheduled for December 30.
(2) Although the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command announced only five maritime exclusion, China’s Maritime Safety Administration in fact issued notices for a 6th and a 7th restricted area. Taken together, these zones would, in theory, completely sever Taiwan’s maritime routes linking the main island with Kinmen and Matsu.
(3) The language used in the official statements largely mirrors that of previous large-scale PLA military operations targeting Taiwan. The notable deviation, however, is the explicit reference to external-line multidimensional deterrence and denial (外线立体慑阻).
6
@KTristanTang 1. Clear operational focus on establishing an ‘exclusion area’ to external actors east of Taiwan;
2. Concurrent effort in securing control west of the island to maximise effects from mainland;
B. This ex has also a greater emphasis on CCG ‘patrol and control’.
Why?
2. Concurrent effort in securing control west of the island to maximise effects from mainland;
B. This ex has also a greater emphasis on CCG ‘patrol and control’.
Why?
Taiwan Security Monitor (台灣安全觀測站)@TaiwanMonitor
NEW POSTER: China’s Coast Guard has released an exercise-style poster titled “Patrol and Control” following its announcement of “law enforcement” patrols around Taiwan.
The poster depicts Coast Guard vessels encircling Taiwan, locking down key ports and critical infrastructure.
The poster depicts Coast Guard vessels encircling Taiwan, locking down key ports and critical infrastructure.
7
@KTristanTang The answer -based on trajectory of past exes, and declared operational focus of this current one - should focus on the following 3 aspects:
1. Time. In a decapitation scenario time would be off the essence. Securing approaches to ports and air spaces around the island is key;
1. Time. In a decapitation scenario time would be off the essence. Securing approaches to ports and air spaces around the island is key;
Taiwan Security Monitor (台灣安全觀測站)@TaiwanMonitor
NEW: China's Coast Guard has announced that they have organized vessel formations to carry out comprehensive law-enforcement patrols in waters surrounding Taiwan and in the areas near the Matsu and Wuqiu islands.
Live AIS data from @MarineTraffic shows multiple CCG vessels in the waters north of Taipei.
Live AIS data from @MarineTraffic shows multiple CCG vessels in the waters north of Taipei.
8
@KTristanTang This does not mean a ‘blockade’ to starve Taiwan necessarily. Rather it is about ensuring that the areas needed to raid neuralgic centres of power are under persistent control from the time needed to execute missions;
2. ‘Patrol and control’ is less about disrupting mar traffic;
2. ‘Patrol and control’ is less about disrupting mar traffic;
9
@KTristanTang 3. CCG duties in ‘Patrol and Control’ should be seen as part of the wider targeting packages focused on debilitating response capabilities, whilst the main effort is concentrated on Taipei.
In all therefore, what to make of this ex in the early stages of it unfolding?
5 Points:
In all therefore, what to make of this ex in the early stages of it unfolding?
5 Points:
Taiwan Security Monitor (台灣安全觀測站)@TaiwanMonitor
Chinese state media has released a new poster for exercise Justice Mission 2025 titled "Plainly Visible," which includes satellite imagery of Taiwanese military infrastructure with the caption "How could you ever attempt 'independence'?"
10
@KTristanTang 1. Since 2022, exes have grown in scale and capacity and follow on continuous ex tempo of individual capabilities;
2. Still - the key things to note are: shorter times for these exes to take place, and the wider range of missions they are designed to accomplish;
2. Still - the key things to note are: shorter times for these exes to take place, and the wider range of missions they are designed to accomplish;
11
@KTristanTang 3. Operational scope is now well beyond knocking out Taiwanese defences. It clearly is aimed at deterring external support in early stage of a crisis;
4. This leads to the next point: tactical surprise. This is hard to achieve, especially in a maritime context. BUT…
4. This leads to the next point: tactical surprise. This is hard to achieve, especially in a maritime context. BUT…
12
@KTristanTang The normalisation of these high levels of military activity make it harder to clearly anticipate and prepare for ‘the real thing’;
5. This leads to the most important point: what are we looking at?
Provided the fact deceptions are always a thing, this ex indicates a preference;
5. This leads to the most important point: what are we looking at?
Provided the fact deceptions are always a thing, this ex indicates a preference;
13
@KTristanTang A preference that has to do with delivering a lightening blow by taking out the political leadership that pushes for independence, creating the context for alternative voices to support different solutions.
In this, time is key: to envelope, to deter, to seize, to confound;
In this, time is key: to envelope, to deter, to seize, to confound;
14
@KTristanTang I might be wrong - but that is the ultimate ‘subthreshold’ doctrine: creating a sudden change of status quo that prevents others to react - especially if other depend on the Taiwanese political leadership to act to set the tone.
A tone that a decapitation might deny altogether.
A tone that a decapitation might deny altogether.
