Entertainment thread by @Cosmic_Penguin

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What Is Happening In Chinese Spaceflight, Quarter 4 2025 Issue - What The......?????

                            2
                        
You can see from the last months that if there's a part of the spaceflight world that's so poorly understood that one seems to be missing important news at the blink of the eye, it's the advancement from the government & private companies of the People's Republic of China.

                            3
                        
I was lagging behind following what's happening there for the past months (& I have a backlog of news for like 1 and a half months already that I still need to sit down & read since September) that w/o others' help (one big help coming from @TAbusnardo) I would be missing a lot.

                            4
                        
But the completely separate social media world at the PRC (I can't even sign up an account to view content w/o submitting personal info!), lack of a "core" news source, and of course the secretive nature of spaceflight in China make covering the sprawling field very difficult.

5

Then today the unthinkable to me happened. For the 1st time in over 2 years, a Chinese launch to orbit happened without anyone including me (at least here outside of a few Chinese spaceflight fans with some access to insider info) noticing beforehand!

                            6
                        
To be fair, the only notice was posted just 1 day before launch, and it's an air space closure notice of a weird kind that only circles the pad (usually seen at Xichang & Wenchang). That's it. Even if I have seen it beforehand, I would not be able to predict what's launching.

7

And so, while I was deep in sleep, late in the afternoon at the Gobi Desert at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, this Long March 2D rocket lifted off at 10:00 UTC with another "thingy" for "new optical imaging technological demonstration" purposes, Shiyan 31.

8

The last launch that I was taken by surprise when it launched out of China was a Ceres-1 in August 2023, and that one actually had a 5 days period NOTAM known before hand. This one though probably never had one intended downrange because it went to a new 500 km 80° polar orbit.

9

There aren't many air routes straight south of JSLC, & if the drop zones don't cross any, the Chinese practice is to not issue anything. Since this is a LM-2D, there would only be 2 at most for the 1st stage & fairings within China anyway. Yeah no-one's gonna know it's launching.

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Tracking these will probably become more and more difficult with random local companies' satellites plans and various constellations and military requirements only going to grow the number of Chinese satellites much higher soon. But that's the fun I guess.

                        0:32

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The wider 4 meter diameter payload fairing and these patches will probably only add to the mystery of this 599th Long March rocket launch. And the 600th is coming in just over 2 days...

12

More Chinese launches to orbit are on the horizon with at least 3 confirmed for the remainder of this week. But before that, here's a quick review of the fun-to-watch launch of the 2nd Gravity-1 launch a few days from LSP Orienspace & SpaceLens: weibo.com/tv/show/1034:5…

2:37

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...does he even know the progress? Heck does he even know how the Chinese crew lunar lander looks like?

NASA Acting Administrator Sean Duffy@SecDuffyNASA

He who controls space, controls the world.

We will not cede the high ground of space to China or any other adversary. America will continue to lead. 🚀 🇺🇸

14

Back to launches, there's no time to reflect on the last one w/ 3 from China lined up for launch within this week! Down at Wenchang everyone's got into launches & the LM-8A is in action for some constellation again (SatNet?) today, October 16 ~01:30 UTC to LEO, 3rd in 3 months!

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Actually this 4th Long March 8A (impressive since it first flew just 8 months ago!) was supposed to launch back on the 10th, but a typhoon passing by last week forced a de-stack and roll-back to the HIF:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

CZ-8A was lifting up onto the Pad-1 of Wenchang commercial. Plan to launch at 10th Oct. via v.douyin.com/zkFp8B23Sd4/

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It's interesting to see how the LM-8A is transported - the kerosene/LOX powered 1st stage and 2 boosters are transported in 1 piece, w/ the LH2/LOX 2nd stage following right behind. I don't think anyone else does that at the same time while not stacked.

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

According to the CALT's official wechat account. There are 3 rockets currently at Wenchang commercial's AB, CZ-8A Y4 & Y5 and "Another type of a rocket", Possible of the CZ-12A. By the way the CZ-8A was rolled back to AB to dodge the Typhoon and stacked back on the pad yesterday.

17

And speaking of Chinese constellations, (almost certainly) the other 2025 workhorse - LM-6A - is going to launch from Taiyuan SLC too on October 17 ~07:09 UTC . What's interesting is that this apparently may be a G60/Qianfan launch, as they haven't had one for 7 months!

                            18
                        
The pause is apparently due to satellite problems, with reports of power and electric thruster issues for ones from one of the suppliers in Shanghai. Restarting launches would mean this probably got resolved, and the Chinese are probably in a hurry to get the initial batch done!

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And then a 3rd one is flying towards SSO from Jiuquan on October 19 ~03:30 UTC. This seems to be the 3rd @cas_space Kinetica-1 launch of the year as the semi-private & semi-government LSP races to get their kerosene/LOX powered Kinetica-2 to launch before the year's out.

20

Few rockets that can send things around Earth have reached this milestone. Soyuz, Atlas, (depending on how you count them) Thor-Delta, Kosmos.
And now - just 38 ahead of SpaceX’s Falcons - the long-lived Chinese Long March rocket will fly for the 600th time in an hour & half.

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Back to launches, there's no time to reflect on the last one w/ 3 from China lined up for launch within this week! Down at Wenchang everyone's got into launches & the LM-8A is in action for some constellation again (SatNet?) today, October 16 ~01:30 UTC to LEO, 3rd in 3 months!

21

SpaceLens will be live streaming this one from Wenchang in about an hour: weibo.com/l/wblive/p/sho…

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

The 600th launch of the Long March series rocket. CZ-8A from Wenchang commercial. Live streaming b23.tv/Y3xh8XA

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A YouTube mirror feed from @IntRocketLaunch: youtube.com/watch?v=Q7kGoE…

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Seems like a good day for launch in S China:

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Probably within 10 minutes of liftoff:

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Liftoff occurred at 01:33 UTC:

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Rare pad side view of a Long March 8 series launch:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Close-up lifting up footage of the CZ-8A. via China航天

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Views from slightly further away: m.weibo.cn/detail/5222310…

0:48

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Launch success has been officially confirmed, and no surprises here with the payload confirmed to be several more satellites for SatNet/Guowang grouped as SatNet LEO Group 12.

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Cameras at the launch pad:

                        0:48

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And an even closer one knocked out by those kerosene/LOX powered engines:

                        0:51

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Another one: m.weibo.cn/detail/5222344…

0:40

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As usual for recent Chinese launches, there are drones out there shooting videos:

                        0:33

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Perhaps it's an hour to yet another Chinese launch...

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

And speaking of Chinese constellations, (almost certainly) the other 2025 workhorse - LM-6A - is going to launch from Taiyuan SLC too on October 17 ~07:09 UTC . What's interesting is that this apparently may be a G60/Qianfan launch, as they haven't had one for 7 months!

34

And "Thousand Sails" is back sailing w/ the 1st new satellites in 7 months for the G60/Qianfan constellation launched on this LM-6A at 07:08 UTC.

Lots of numbers skipped this time though - after G60 Polar Group 01, 02, 03, 06 & 05, this is G60 Polar Group *18* for some reason.

35

The large gap in batch nos. might be real indication that there are satellite manufacturing problems w/ some of the earlier batches (specifically the ones from Genesat of Shanghai, as per orbit raising behaviors of previous sats).

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But constellation operator Spacesail/Shanghai Spacesail Technologies seems confident now to restart deployment after a long pause since March 11. The subsequent movements of the 18 satellites of this Polar Group 18 will definitely be closely monitored from the outside.

                        0:14

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Off-topic: The thing that state media continues to put pop songs on these rocket launch clips is making me one step closer to remix the same clips (or even use SpaceX Falcon/Starship launches) with anime idol songs in protest LMAO. 🤪

                        0:26

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BTW the main foreign launch services outlet for CASC, CGWIC, is involved with these launches and has a slightly different naming for these satellites:

CGWIC@CGWIC

CGWIC Successfully Launches the Sixth Batch Satellites of Spacesail Constellation by LM-6A Launch Vehicle

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Next Chinese launch to orbit is coming again in just about half an hour. I am still not sure about the rocket, nor perhaps most of the passengers, but China’s close ally Pakistan government’s SUPARCO reports they have a hyperspectral EO satellite on board: brecorder.com/news/40387540/…

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

And then a 3rd one is flying towards SSO from Jiuquan on October 19 ~03:30 UTC. This seems to be the 3rd @cas_space Kinetica-1 launch of the year as the semi-private & semi-government LSP races to get their kerosene/LOX powered Kinetica-2 to launch before the year's out.

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And this Kinetica-1 did successfully launch from Jiuquan at 03:33 UTC. In addition to that Pakistan satellite listed above (PRSC-HS1), there are also 2 X-band radar EO sats on board from CAS, AIRSAT-03/04.

                        0:13

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Official report from CAS Space:

CAS Space@cas_space

News from the control room. Kinetica-1 Mission Y8 is successful, marking the 9th flight of Kinetica-1. Y8 payloads include: PRSC-HS1, AIRSAT 03/04.
CAS Space continues to serve global clients with Kinetica-1 as the only private LSP in China with an international ridesharing record.

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Not bad for a Vega-class rocket that has less than 10 (successful) launches till now…

CAS Space@cas_space

The success of Mission Y8 also marks a total of 73 payloads, of over 9 tonnes of payload delivered by Kinetica-1.

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It seems being a state institute spin-off LSP really does help CAS Space setting foot on firm ground, and with they probably able to pull off launch of their 10+ tonnes class (ultimately) reusable rocket Kinetica-2 pretty soon, they certainly are in a good position in the market.

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Another video of the launch:

                        0:24

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Official mission review video from @cas_space:

                        1:04

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It might not just be Chinese rockets starting to get foreign commercial customers again - AIRSAT-03, actually w/ 0.5 m resolution, is apparently built for the Malaysian company TerraXpace (globaltelecom.com.my/services-satel…). More competition for the likes of @capellaspace & @umbraspace?

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Timeframe of next flight:

CAS Space@cas_space

Here comes the mission recap video (some people seem to have already posted it on X).

Mission Y9 is scheduled for early November, followed by Mission Y11 and Y12.

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More AIRSAT-03/04 and mission logos photos:

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And the next Chinese launch to orbit uses their biggest rocket so far, yet because of the secrecy of whatever is on board, it will only lead to local fans taking a coffee break!
The 9th mighty Long March 5 will launch eastward to somewhere from Wenchang on October 23 ~14:30 UTC.

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The LM-5 is still a mighty symbol of Chinese spaceflight power these days (until the LM-10 enters service), but with the shift of the majority of its missions from flagship public projects to carrying more sinister things, this is not unusual.

Except for its loooooong fairing…

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With this heading straight east, we can suppose whatever is in that heading for geostationary orbit, or something similar. Whatever that is, I bet it will get a lot of attention elsewhere.

Photos from m.weibo.cn/detail/5223249…:

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The roll-out: m.weibo.cn/detail/5223246…

1:10

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The Long March 2D rocket launch that I missed last weekend has its 1st stage striking a remote pasture ground in Qinghai like this LMAO. Almost only seen in China these days! (the few Russian rockets dropping stages like this are in very remote areas)

Byron Wan@Byron_Wan

Oct 13: a 🇨🇳 rocket booster crashed into a ranch in Guinan County (贵南县), Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai province.

Lots of toxic pollutants were left behind in the area…

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*The* most powerful Chinese rocket of today is about just under an hour to launch for the very first time since it launched Chang'e 6 to the far side of the Moon and back a year & half ago. This time it's with...something.

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

And the next Chinese launch to orbit uses their biggest rocket so far, yet because of the secrecy of whatever is on board, it will only lead to local fans taking a coffee break!
The 9th mighty Long March 5 will launch eastward to somewhere from Wenchang on October 23 ~14:30 UTC.

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Someone's going to try people streaming from nearby at Wenchang, although in many cases they are deliberately deleted due to the launch's nature...and this one may fall into that category too.
Anyway: youtube.com/watch?v=DG0V0M…

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And another one from @IntRocketLaunch: youtube.com/watch?v=nKGqPE…

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There’s certainly some crowd waiting to watch this night time launch:

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And liftoff occurred right on time:

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The top secret “Communication technology test satellites”, with quotes in bold, series strikes again! The “thingy” on top of this LM-5 that successfully launched after liftoff at 14:30 UTC is a certain TJSW-20. This is the 2nd one to launch on LM-5 after TJSW-11 in February 2024.

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Not surprisingly SpaceLens is at Wenchang to film the mighty Long March 5 launching: m.weibo.cn/detail/5225049…

0:48

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A rooster on a mission patch (first time I have ever seen one) is certainly looking very sus… 🤨

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Launch as seen from straight down the MLP road:

                        0:28

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And another view: m.weibo.cn/detail/5225057…

0:44

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Originally pioneered by famous Energia-Buran, the iconic partnership of a big LH2 fuelled core stage strapped w/ multiple kerosene-burning boosters will probably be related more w/ “China’s Flagship Rocket of 2010s” in the future.
m.weibo.cn/detail/5225055… / m.weibo.cn/detail/5225057…

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The Long March 5 Lightsaber:

天宇追箭者@Skyfeather16

刚刚过去的长五发射，我们要挑战一张封神！
雨中拔出的一柄光剑！

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And really close-up photos:

天宇追箭者@Skyfeather16

请看！昨夜长征五号火箭发射
现场摄影：雪乃

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Real slow-motion view of the liftoff, slowed down by 10x
From @Skyfeather16: m.weibo.cn/detail/5225218…

1:24

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From m.weibo.cn/detail/5225068…:

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I had been behind on Chinese launches and here's a really weird one about to occur in the next 30 minutes! There were rumors of a LM-3B launch from Xichang today & when drop zones appeared they stunned me.

This launch on October 26 ~03:50 UTC is pointing towards polar SSO (!!!)

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While Xichang can handle polar orbit launches (as it did twice w/ LM-2C in 2004), it's poorly located & few SSO satellites needs the LM-3B. Only once before, on 6 December 2020, did it do so w/ Gaofen 14.
So what on Earth is on top this time???
(Map by space-notices.vercel.app)

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The even bigger irony is that the next (known) Chinese launch after this is none other than Shenzhou 21 heading to the CSS on October 31 (~15:44 UTC)!
At a time when US Space Policy is blown to complete chaos, suddenly even regular Chinese station expeditions feels like sth big.

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After all, even w/o seeing what potential problems are being faced on the Chinese Boots On Moon effort, that the US government seems to be panicking on that feels...strange.
That even extends to LEO crew research. Who's not to say there will be days the CSS' only station in town?

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Also tangentially related between Shenzhou 21 & future Chinese crew lunar missions is the timing's right (many Chinese spaceflight fans are guessing October 2029's the target, landing for 80th anniversary of the PRC sounds cool) for some members of this to fly to the Moon next.

                        1:11

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Back in Xichang, whatever shocking thing sitting on top is now on its way with local window shaking reports confirming a launch did happen:

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

I had been behind on Chinese launches and here's a really weird one about to occur in the next 30 minutes! There were rumors of a LM-3B launch from Xichang today & when drop zones appeared they stunned me.

This launch on October 26 ~03:50 UTC is pointing towards polar SSO (!!!)

75

In the end the answer was a bit boring, if still intriguing. The thing on top that successfully launched at 03:55 UTC is simply Gaofen 14's replacement, Gaofen 14-02.
Like its predecessor, this is a semi-classified satellite described as for obtaining global high-res 3D images.

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Interesting to see that the LM-3B's not exactly efficient for LEO missions - this uses the SSO-optimized "G5" sub-variant w/ longer fairings w/ capability of 4.5 tonnes to 500 km SSO - "only" Antares class and now easily replaced by the LM-8 series. Old launch contract maybe?

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Like its inspiration source the Ariane 4, the Long March 3 series' Polar/Low Earth Orbit missions will be few and far in between...if there's still one in the plans.

                        0:32

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This "Chinese orbital thingy" was the main payload of the first launch of the Long March 8 rocket on December 21st, 2020.

HEO@heospace

A technology verification satellite spent 5 years in orbit and most relied on a single render to guess its capabilities.

HEO analysed XJY-7 with high-frequency Non-Earth Imaging, building a 3D model from multiple angles and orbits. We verified it as a SAR satellite with a large dish antenna and two fixed solar panels that required full-body rotation to charge.

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Actually I don't know if @heospace knew this, but state TV news reports back then did show the satellite's model on the LCC's main screen...

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

As for the thingy named XJY-7...this thing appeared in the launch news reports. Interesting SAR (?) dish eh? 😏

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A bit late to the news but here's the Shenzhou 21 crew - Zhang Lu is back after Shenzhou 15 and the rookies both work in engineering:

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

Meet Shenzhou-21 crew:
ZHANG Lu (C), commander, Shenzhou-15 veteran
WU Fei (R), flight engineer, former CASC engineer
ZHANG Hongzhang (L), payload specialist, battery research scientist at CAS

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It seems that CAST engineer Wu Fei might have broken the record for youngest long term space station expedition member for at least a long time, if not all time, at only 32 years old! (that's just older than when @ArceneauxHayley & @Gillis_SarahE flew their missions)

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Official astronauts biography for those who need it - payload specialist Zhang Hongzhang is a high energy battery storage researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences BTW.

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I wonder if it will head directly to the CSS for its first flight, given this is in the "LEO configuration"...

WLR2678🌌@WLR_2678

CZ-10A likely to debut next year with Mengzhou-1 onboard.

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Other news:
* T-0 15:44 UTC October 31 (SZ-20 will BTW come back Nov. 5 ~12:30 UTC)
* 3.5 h rendezvous profile
* Current pair of CSS EVA suits close to retirement after 20 uses & will come back on a "New Gen. S/C"
* This time's in-focus science experiment is breeding rodents...

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On the crew lunar landing front:
* Still repeating the "before 2030" target
* Next key milestones: integrated tests for Lanyue lunar lander, vacuum chamber & Max-Q LAS tests for Mengzhou, LM-10(A) hopper tests then LM-10A first launch

WLR2678🌌@WLR_2678

#Shenzhou21 press conference: #Mengzhou-1 patch design public contest coming up next year

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It's yet another time for what's now already the 10th crew expedition to the CSS to fly in less than 10 hours from now. Time really has flown since the first module went up huh?

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

The even bigger irony is that the next (known) Chinese launch after this is none other than Shenzhou 21 heading to the CSS on October 31 (~15:44 UTC)!
At a time when US Space Policy is blown to complete chaos, suddenly even regular Chinese station expeditions feels like sth big.

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As usual there should be live coverage and I'll post after some sleep.

This set of photos: m.weibo.cn/detail/5225289…

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Another set of LM-2F roll-out photos: m.weibo.cn/detail/5225297…

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At the launch pad at JSLC where it will launch into late night later today:

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And here's the next one - it's apparently going to be a "fun" November at Wenchang w/ multiple launches, & the 1st is another LM-7A going for a rare daytime launch due east (GTO bound?) on November 3rd ~03:45 UTC w/, uh, sth. The rocket apparently rolled out right as I type this!

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Back to Shenzhou 21, the official English live coverage will be here: youtube.com/watch?v=dj8oB8…

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And for mirroring of the Chinese one (crew ingress is currently underway): youtube.com/watch?v=yCJyKa…

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Hatch is now closed at T-1 hour: youtube.com/watch?v=QIHQpG…

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Exact T-0 was 15:44:46.441 UTC:

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CMSEO has reported that Shenzhou 21 has docked to the front port of CSS's Tianhe module at 19:22 UTC, 3 hours & 28 minutes after liftoff.

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More photos: m.weibo.cn/detail/5227965…

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Long March 2F rocket and the Shenzhou 21 crew shoots past the Moon: m.weibo.cn/detail/5227968…

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So Mengzhou-1 (MZ-1) WILL fly and dock to the CSS then (Tianhe module nadir port). As w/ similar US S/C test flights it will carry cargo up & down (most likely including the 2 old Chinese EVA suits that will be replaced soon).

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Mengzhou manned ship (No man onboard with the first one ) plan to launch by CZ-10A at Wenchang LC next year to dock with CSS.

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Also Shenzhou 22 will have 1 of its crew members going on China's 1st year-long in-space expedition. This will free 1 spot on Shenzhou 23 late next year for a short flight, very likely for the Pakistan astronaut mission.

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

@TAbusnardo yes, over 1 year stay, to be more precise

100

There are apparently a large number of launches piling up for launch this month in China and this one in an hour's the first. Except I can't even find anyone mentioning trying to watch this in broad daylight at Wenchang...

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

And here's the next one - it's apparently going to be a "fun" November at Wenchang w/ multiple launches, & the 1st is another LM-7A going for a rare daytime launch due east (GTO bound?) on November 3rd ~03:45 UTC w/, uh, sth. The rocket apparently rolled out right as I type this!

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...but someone's indeed trying to film the launch today. (Mirror webcast by @IntRocketLaunch)
youtube.com/watch?v=iNB7Cq…

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Not the best launch weather for this LM-7A BTW with overcast skies and perhaps light rain at Wenchang:

                            103
                        
Liftoff has occurred at ~03:47 UTC as the LM-7A disappeared into low clouds.

104

Well this became the latest in so many Galaxy Cat moments of Chinese spaceflight lately as this LM-7A launched at 03:47 UTC appears to have delivered to GTO sth named Yaogan 46.
Yes, it's named even in official reports as for "national resources/hydrology/meteorology surveying".

                            105
                        
Of course if this is really going to geostationary orbit, it's nothing new for the Chinese since they have general Earth observation satellites in the GEO belt (still a rare breed elsewhere) from 10 years ago since Gaofen-4 launched in December 2015. But still...

                        0:21

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The interesting thing is that while LM-7A has lifted Yaogan series satellites on the last 2 launches, this YG-46 has a different official description than -45 (YG-45 has "tech testing" & "crops yield estimation" while -46 has "hydrology & meteorology observation" unique to them)!

107

The liftoff from SpaceLens: m.weibo.cn/detail/5228877…

0:22

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Another one: m.weibo.cn/detail/5228882…

1:04

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Closer look: m.weibo.cn/detail/5228925…

0:35

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Apparently there are rumors that another LM-7A is planning to launch from the very same spot as soon as *November 30*! This pad is finally getting busy after a decade...
m.weibo.cn/detail/5228931…

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Yeah the design of this 3.5 stages rocket w/ 3 different engine models for 7 tonnes to GTO may look pretty complicated these days but that's a performance that the Chinese will rely on it for quite a while...
m.weibo.cn/detail/5228946…

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Liftoff: m.weibo.cn/detail/5228963…

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t.bilibili.com/11309265261229…

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6 YF-100 engines firing:

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While I'm at it, what about a replay from cameras at pad of last Friday's Shenzhou 21 launch?
m.weibo.cn/detail/5228479…

1:12

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Oh wow, so this is again NOT a geostationary bound satellite, but another going for that weird 7500 km Medium Earth Orbit after YG-45!

Jonathan McDowell@planet4589

Yaogan 46 cataloged in a 2548 x 7562 km x 20.0 deg orbit, suggesting it is related to Yaogan 45 and is not a geostationary mission as some had suggested

117

Well this is rare, curious to know how they knew there was a possible strike

Wu Lei@wulei2020

Safety First: Shenzhou-20 Return postponed: The China Manned Space Agency has confirmed that the Shenzhou-20 spaceship may have been hit by a small orbital debris object. Officials are conducting impact assessments and risk analyses to evaluate the situation. Updates will follow.

118

While waiting for news to see if any contingency arrangement is required (next Shenzhou/LM-2F is half-ready at Jiuquan SLC for such "launch-on-need" missions per standard), here's someone very close to the pad at Xichang during the last LM-3B launch:
m.weibo.cn/detail/5229317…

0:30

                            119
                        
This is going to be a very busy launch month for the Chinese, with 1 completed and now 3 within the next 5 days, plus another 3 already confirmed through to the last day of the month and rumors of some more. Here’s an overview of the next 3…

120

An SSO-bound launch from Jiuquan on November 7 ~03:30 UTC can almost be easily pinned down as another @cas_space Kinetica-1 launch since they mentioned an early Nov. launch last month; nailing down what’s flying w/ it is quite difficult though!

CAS Space@cas_space

Here comes the mission recap video (some people seem to have already posted it on X).

Mission Y9 is scheduled for early November, followed by Mission Y11 and Y12.

121

Right after that, a rare pre-dawn sea launch out of Haiyang sea port in Shandong (+) will occur on November 8 ~21:00 UTC to the SE - and reports say the lost-for-almost-2-years small Long March 11 is making a comeback w/ who-knows-what. I guess that’s my job to watch them out…

122

Then what’s most likely another constellation-building (SatNet maybe) launch will go out of Wenchang (to SE again) w/ the LM-12 flying for the 3rd time on November 10 ~02:42 UTC. It was absent a lot compared w/ LM-8A (which has another 1 flying this month) but here’s it flying!

                            123
                        
(+) Speaking of Haiyang spaceport, there’s a completely overlooked story here of a moderately densely populated/industrialised Chinese coastline suddenly becoming perhaps *the* fastest growing spaceport in the world! I plan to write about it soon along w/ the rockets using it.

124

Well some shuffling in the manifest has immediately happened. The Kinetica-1 (?) that's supposed to be hours away got delayed at the last moment, w/ new NOTAMs showing a whole week's delay to November 14 ~03:00 UTC. However something else slips into its place...

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

An SSO-bound launch from Jiuquan on November 7 ~03:30 UTC can almost be easily pinned down as another @cas_space Kinetica-1 launch since they mentioned an early Nov. launch last month; nailing down what’s flying w/ it is quite difficult though!

125

...on November 10 ~04:00 UTC, just over an hour after the LM-12 launch above, what seems to be the next Galactic Energy Ceres 1 rocket (*finally* their 6th of the year, a far cry from Electron...) will launch towards SSO.

Or is it? I'm so bad at thinking through all this stuff!

126

And somehow the Kinetica-1 launch got moved back *up* again, to November 9 ~03:30 UTC. Figuring out what's going on is quite difficult, to put it mildly!

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

An SSO-bound launch from Jiuquan on November 7 ~03:30 UTC can almost be easily pinned down as another @cas_space Kinetica-1 launch since they mentioned an early Nov. launch last month; nailing down what’s flying w/ it is quite difficult though!

127

Per insiders, sounds like a decision on how to get the Shenzhou 20 crew back (including possible contingency launch of Shenzhou 22 w/o crew) will be made pretty soon.
Here are safety slogans @ JSLC that came w/ the hinting tweet (including 1 from ex-PRC premier Zhou Enlai):

128

Residents near the coast of Haiyang, Shandong Province are expected to get a very early sunrise at ~5 am when this launches in ~1 hr. Interestingly unlike a similar late night launch recently in same region, it doesn't look like anyone's waiting for it...

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Right after that, a rare pre-dawn sea launch out of Haiyang sea port in Shandong (+) will occur on November 8 ~21:00 UTC to the SE - and reports say the lost-for-almost-2-years small Long March 11 is making a comeback w/ who-knows-what. I guess that’s my job to watch them out…

                            129
                        
Well it looks like few if any was watching this, but at least liftoff is confirmed with someone waken up by the rumbling of this rocket. 🤣

130

LMAO it looks like there are quite a few Chinese users who depend on various apps that I helped with data updates for knowing there are launches - this time it's @nextspaceflight!
Payload's apparently "a northern China university's satellite" BTW ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

131

No official news so far but that's how the launch (almost certainly the 1st LM-11 in close to 2 years) looked like: m.weibo.cn/detail/5230943…

2:25

132

Apparently these solid rocket motors can make temporary comets: m.weibo.cn/detail/5230943…

1:22

                            133
                        
4 hours since launch and ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

                            134
                        
Well…I just picked up a rumor that a. this was really a LM-11; b. the rocket worked fine; c. whatever was on board “had some problems”.
If that’s real then we might not get a proper update for a full day, as w/ previous similar Chinese cases…

135

And I had no time to spare with another one heading out, this time from deserts, within an hour from now after 2 days of delays! What a mess…

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

An SSO-bound launch from Jiuquan on November 7 ~03:30 UTC can almost be easily pinned down as another @cas_space Kinetica-1 launch since they mentioned an early Nov. launch last month; nailing down what’s flying w/ it is quite difficult though!

136

Apparently this is indeed Kinetica-1 launching in coming minutes & it's carrying multiple Earth observing satellites to fly in Very Low Earth Orbit for a constellation by state corporation CASIC (which does things like the Kuaizhou launch vehicles etc.): m.weibo.cn/detail/5231018…

137

And this time around there's no confusion - it's launch success for @cas_space as this Kinetica-1 launched a pair of CASIC built VLEO Earth observation satellites mentioned above, named Chutian-2-01 & 02, in crystal clear weather at Jiuquan SLC at 03:32 UTC:

138

@cas_space Some photos from SpaceLens as Kinetica-1 glides past the broad daylight Moon: m.weibo.cn/detail/5231043…

CAS Space@cas_space

The 10th Kinetica-1 success! Kinetica-1 Y9 just delivered Chutian-2 01/02 into orbits. Since its debut, Kinetica-1 has now delivered over 10 tonnes of payloads to space.
Our subsequent missions are Kinetica-1 Y11 and the inaugural suborbital flight of Lihong-1. Both are scheduled for late November.

139

It's been years since I had been in that city so I'm not sure I share that love for Guangdong's capital haha:

CAS Space@cas_space

A twist of style, the Y9 vehicle is painted with decals celebrating the 15th National Games of China, soon to be held collaboratively in the HK-Macau-Guangzhou region. The painting reads "I love Guangzhou".

                            140
                        
Drones are filming launches at JSLC yet again:

                        0:22

                            141
                        
Notice the roll control thrusters at the bottom of the 1st stage motor:

                        0:34

                            142
                        
Right, as for the LM-11 launch...after >7.5 hours w/ initial reports of payload problems, official reports now put this 21:01 UTC launch as a success. 

The university sat isn't there (apparently launching tmr), but there are 3 "thingys" known as Shiyan-32 01-03 on board.

                        0:17

                            143
                        
Longer video of these 3 satellites for "orbital technological testing" purposes, whatever that means, hopping into the night sky:

                        0:46

144

And here's today's Kinetica-1 grazing the Sun
From m.weibo.cn/detail/5231049…:

145

And here's today's Long March 11 making a "comet"
From m.weibo.cn/detail/5230943…:

146

The 15th National Games of the PRC happens to be starting today across Guangdong (w/ some events in Hong Kong & Macau as well) so it's not surprising to see Guangdong-based CAS Space putting its logo on this Kinetica-1: m.weibo.cn/detail/5231045…

147

Additional launch preparation photos: m.weibo.cn/detail/5231040…

                            148
                        
Official launch mission overview video of the Kinetica-1 launch from @cas_space:

                        1:43

149

Feeling down after seeing New Glenn sitting out from launch this afternoon? No worries, the Chinese have the answer w/ *2* more launches tonight in the West, with 1 of them having a webcast! 🙃
live.bilibili.com/23118988

150

The one you can see is the 3rd Long March 12 rocket, already fueled and counting down for launch in ~5 hours, at Wenchang w/ probably another bunch of SatNet LEO comsats. No recoverable boosters here (solutions are well on the way though) unfortunately...

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Then what’s most likely another constellation-building (SatNet maybe) launch will go out of Wenchang (to SE again) w/ the LM-12 flying for the 3rd time on November 10 ~02:42 UTC. It was absent a lot compared w/ LM-8A (which has another 1 flying this month) but here’s it flying!

151

...but state institute SAST do hope the LM-12 - an early Falcon 9 class RP-1/LOX LV using parts of their rejected Chinese Moon rocket plans - can serve as stopgap for constellation launches until their reusable LM-12A & B (more on them later) come on line. m.weibo.cn/detail/5230031…

152

The LM-12 - unusually for Chinese rockets till very recently - is horizontally integrated and rolls to the clean designed pad (LC-2 at the Wenchang Commercial Space Launch Site). This one made its trip early on November 5th: m.weibo.cn/detail/5230114…

153

BTW in a sight pretty familiar to SpaceX fans looking at their McGregor, Texas testing facility, there are actually lots of cows (descendants of herds for farming, if not still being used as one) at Wenchang as well, and they do get close to rockets!

154

Hainan Island has a reputation of having just as unpredictable weather as in Florida, but it looks like it will be a clear morning for launch at ~02:42 UTC November 10, in about 5 hours from now.
And even in November flowers still blossom there: m.weibo.cn/detail/5231187…

155

Also, well, you can use photos of this Chinese launch pad and fool others not well versed with spaceflight to claim that this is Cape Canaveral's LC-39A Falcon launch pad... 😉

156

Just over an hour later at ~04:00 UTC, something's going to launch on the SSO polar orbit track from Jiuquan SLC, and it's likely to be another launch for Ceres-1 of Galactic Energy, currently China's most reliable private LSP.

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

...on November 10 ~04:00 UTC, just over an hour after the LM-12 launch above, what seems to be the next Galactic Energy Ceres 1 rocket (*finally* their 6th of the year, a far cry from Electron...) will launch towards SSO.

Or is it? I'm so bad at thinking through all this stuff!

157

This comes at a time where Galactic Energy is preparing to get 2 new launch vehicles on line very soon - the solid fuel powered but up to Vega class Ceres-2 and the kerosene/LOX powered Delta II class reusable LV Pallas-1 - in the coming months. Busy times at their factories!

158

Sun has risen in China and this LM-12 is being fueled for launch in roughly under 2 hours. Alternative webcast link: weibo.com/l/wblive/p/sho…

159

Probably ~1 hour to liftoff:

160

Alternative mirroring stream from @IntRocketLaunch: youtube.com/watch?v=RK1MBV…

161

T-20 minutes vent /s

162

Now minutes away from liftoff as venting has stopped:

163

Liftoff occurred as expected at 02:42 UTC:

164

Possibly the closest rocket to the good old Soviet-Ukrainian Zenit today:

165

Long March 12 passing through Max-Q behind the clouds:

166

2 photos of LM-12 in the fog while we wait for the 2nd stage to restart: m.weibo.cn/detail/5231247…

167

Still waiting for the outcome of the Long March 12 launch, but this (likely) Ceres-1 thousands of km away should now also be minutes away from launching:

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

...on November 10 ~04:00 UTC, just over an hour after the LM-12 launch above, what seems to be the next Galactic Energy Ceres 1 rocket (*finally* their 6th of the year, a far cry from Electron...) will launch towards SSO.

Or is it? I'm so bad at thinking through all this stuff!

168

In the end no surprises here for the LM-12 launch, a success after an official liftoff time of 02:41 UTC and brought the latest batch of LEO comsats for SatNet - SatNet LEO Group 13 - to orbit.

(1st photo from SpaceLens: m.weibo.cn/detail/5231413…)

169

It's definitely pretty easy to fool people with these photos that this is a Zenit-2 or 3 rocket lifting off, down to using oxygen-rich staged-combustion kerosene/LOX engines w/ 4 combustion chambers on the 1st stage!😉
m.weibo.cn/detail/5231412…

                            170
                        
Alternative angle of the launch - see the TEL arm dropping like the Falcon ones in the US do at liftoff?

                        0:29

                            171
                        
A bit closer to the pad:

                        0:25

172

Long March 12's liftoff from just off the shore:

                            173
                        
As for the Ceres-1...apparently it did launch at 04:02:53 UTC and, well, rumors seems to start spreading an hour later that this might have failed, but there's enough confusion (not the least of which is yesterday's LM-11 launch!) that I'm not saying this is reliable news yet.

                        0:51

174

So I was expecting any failure that happened to be quite late into the launch given it took some time for the rumor to spread...and so it was with the hypergolic fuel 4th (upper stage) failing 8.5 minutes into its burn (probably 10+ planned).

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Mission failed of the Ceres-1 Y 19. The 4th stage shut-down earlier than expected. via mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4BGFXW9BjBOd…

175

This puts Ceres-1 now at 2 failures in 22 launches - strangely Galactic Energy might be following the success of Rocket Lab's Electron too closely as even the failure rate is similar to Electron's of mid-2021, when both had similar no. of launches (3 failures in 20!).

176

It seems the Jilin-1 commercial Earth observation satellite constellation may have got the worst out of Ceres-1's troubles - apparently they lost their High Resolution-04C 0.5 m resolution class sat on this, after they lost HR-04B on the previous Ceres-1 failure in Sep. 2023!

177

OK the official manifest was released: Jilin-1 also had a 2nd sat on board, the flexible payload "Platform-02A-04", and there's a cubesat from North University of China of Taiyuan, Shanxi (that's the one mistakenly noted as launching on yesterday's LM-11).

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

🚀 GALACTIC-ENERGY launched CERES-1 Y19 from Jiuquan at 04:02UTC November 10, with 1-3 stages performing flawlessly. But the fourth stage shut down prematurely at 510s after ignition. Exact cause of failure TBD.

178

Back to Wenchang, pad and drone camera views of today's LM-12 launch:

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

🚀 Long March 12 Y3

179

And a rollback to somewhat earlier - something bigger will launch from right next to this pad pretty soon…

CAS Space@cas_space

Additional Y9 photos and behind-the-scenes 👏

180

Meanwhile here's long awaited news on Shenzhou 20's return: there's an official press release just out that avoids mentioning a concrete plan, but did say that they are "progressing" towards SZ-20 crew's return, including routine rehearsals on the ground. m.weibo.cn/detail/5231742…

                            181
                        
While the article steers completely clear of mentioning what's the plan, it seems to leans towards the Shenzhou 20 S/C is cleared for re-entry w/ crew on board after all. This actually aligns w/ some insider rumors on the +ve side of mood I have seen a day or two ago, so... 🙃

182

I guess this is why I don’t do tea leaves reading for a living…my own interpretation says the opposite, but who knows?

Anyway either way there are extensive guidelines in what to do I am sure.

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

So, when CCTV broadcasts this announcement with clips of Long March 2F launch facility, I tend to believe that Long March 2F Y22 and Shenzhou-22 will very likely be activated.

183

Tea leaves reading from a third angle…

Andrew Jones@AJ_FI

Update: "Shenzhou-20 crew's return mission is progressing smoothly," CMSEO says, without explicitly stating the plan. But "landing site is currently conducting comprehensive rehearsals for the Shenzhou-20 crew's return," suggesting SZ-20 is clear to land. cmse.gov.cn/xwzx/202511/t2…

184

And you can even try getting some sort of conclusions out of this! I certainly am inviting you to do it: 🤣

Andrew Jones@AJ_FI

Here's the full lack of clarity on the Shenzhou-20 situation from China's human spaceflight agency in English: english.news.cn/20251111/ff705…

185

Meanwhile another Chinese launch on the horizon: there were reports of another LM-8A launch @ the “commercial side” of Wenchang this month: it’s now confirmed for November 19 ~13:00 UTC. With so many Chinese LEO comsats waiting for a ride, there’s a lot of launch work yet to do!

186

The Long March 8A in question rolling out to the pad (“Commercial LC-1”) earlier today for stacking:

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

A Long March 8A is on the launch pad.

187

The whole rocket is transferred to the pad in 3 parts: m.weibo.cn/detail/5231787…

188

I think we can call it now - this is the SZ-20 coming back w/ crew in <48 hours. There's just not enough time to schedule SZ-22 launching, docking to CSS (BTW TZ-9 will have to leave 1st since CSS ports are full), then freed SZ-21 to leave w/ SZ-20's crew.

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

NOTAM has published for the return of a Shenzhou ship. Unclear it’s manned or not , Also SZ-20 or 21. At 1114 1620-1650 BJT. Pic via mapp.api.weibo.cn/fx/aaad54b2ea3…

                            189
                        
Only other possibility would be for the Shenzhou 20 and 21 crew to swap spacecraft while mission control continues to mull options, but that seems to be just kicking the can down the road and some crew effort would be needed to swap all 6 custom seats. I doubt this is happening.

190

State Television CCTV now shows they have a special coverage for the CSS, so it's almost certainly the Shenzhou 20 crew coming back within the next 10 hours (coverage starts 07:30 UTC for landing ~08:30 UTC). The minor problem of whether they will use SZ-20 itself remains.

191

Scratch out the "almost" in the sentence above - they are coming back.
The alternative of them using SZ-21 instead is there, but as discussed above that has no safety advantages over launching SZ-22 and dock to the CSS first (occupying Tianzhou 9's space).

192

Oh the least possible scenario is happening! It seems there wasn’t enough (ECLSS?) resources to have 6 people on the CSS for any much longer, so the Shenzhou 20 crew is riding launched-2-weeks-ago Shenzhou 21 back today!

They are indeed sending Shenzhou 22 empty up…later.

                            193
                        
There’s also possibility they don’t wanna use SZ-20 for nominal re-entry, but they can tolerate risk of using it in emergency, so they just send the old crew back first with SZ-21 & then proceed to launch SZ-22 in less haste. But I just can’t see how the risk assessment work out.

194

So while we were looking at the Atlas V launching, Shenzhou 21 has undocked from the CSS at 03:14 UTC and will re-enter after another 3.5 orbits in around 4 hours...
m.weibo.cn/detail/5232847…

195

...and CMSEO now reports what was the specific problem on Shenzhou 20: they found small cracks on the side hatch window of SZ-20's descent module that they determine to be consistent with an orbital debris colliding on it. Shenzhou 20 will stay in orbit for more testing.

196

(source: m.weibo.cn/detail/5232847…)

197

Structure of the porthole window:

WLR2678🌌@WLR_2678

The #Shenzhou porthole window consists of a heat-resistant outer panel and two pressure-bearing inner panels. The cracks found on SZ-20 pose a risk of the outer panel shattering during reentry, exposing the inner panels not designed to directly withstand the heat of the plasma.

                            198
                        
The unexpected early departure of Shenzhou 21 from the CSS after arrival less than 2 weeks ago:

                        0:35

199

Well I missed the actual landing of the crew last night (just couldn't resist sleep after watching Atlas V go) so for those who needed a full re-cap: youtube.com/watch?v=bSme1k…

200

Will be interesting to see answers to these:
* Will CMSEO decide to launch Shenzhou 22 up ASAP, or a bit later (2 months as in Soyuz MS-22 & Starliner)?
* Can they accelerate Shenzhou production? Soyuz MS-22's crew ended up spending 1 year in space because the Russians couldn't.

201

Thinking about it, a cracked-on-outer-layer porthole window on the DM is indeed a case where I would not dare fly on the damaged Shenzhou on regular return to Earth, but one that using it to escape CSS in an emergency would have a "tolerable risk".

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

There’s also possibility they don’t wanna use SZ-20 for nominal re-entry, but they can tolerate risk of using it in emergency, so they just send the old crew back first with SZ-21 & then proceed to launch SZ-22 in less haste. But I just can’t see how the risk assessment work out.

202

There will be quite a few Chinese launches to orbit over the few days w/ 3 more known, 1 of which has been the subject of much speculation lately. But this one has apparently been postponed from the 19th w/ people observing the payload section de-stacked.

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Meanwhile another Chinese launch on the horizon: there were reports of another LM-8A launch @ the “commercial side” of Wenchang this month: it’s now confirmed for November 19 ~13:00 UTC. With so many Chinese LEO comsats waiting for a ride, there’s a lot of launch work yet to do!

203

As for the 3 launches, the 1st one is in 7.5 hours as what seems ("seems" as there's 1 drop zone missing) to be a Long March 2C w/ YZ-1S upper stage launch towards SE from Jiuquan on November 19 ~04:00 UTC, perhaps w/ more SatNet (DTC?) test sats that are growing like mushrooms!

204

Another puzzling launch will be @ Xichang on November 21 ~10:55 UTC, this time "apparently" a Long March 3B also towards SE. Medium inclination BLEO launches for LM-3B, other than Beidou, carries puzzling payloads like Shiyan 10 & MEO test comsats. Sorry, but this is scary to me!

205

The 3rd one? Why it's none other than hotly talked about Shenzhou 22 launching w/o crew to the CSS to replace window-broken Shenzhou 20 of course, now confirmed for launch on November 25 @ ~04:11 UTC. Looks like CMSEO will take this opportunity to fly it w/ extra cargo too!

                            206
                        
It's pretty tough already to deal w/ a S/C that you can't trust using it on the way down, it's even more so when you need to launch one from stand-by in 16 days from decision - apparently the exact plan pulled out here. But kudos for CMSEO to follow the books to make this happen!

                        2:32

207

And this one should be going up at the top of this hour. It can be hours before we hear about it though, if an upper stage is indeed involved:

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

As for the 3 launches, the 1st one is in 7.5 hours as what seems ("seems" as there's 1 drop zone missing) to be a Long March 2C w/ YZ-1S upper stage launch towards SE from Jiuquan on November 19 ~04:00 UTC, perhaps w/ more SatNet (DTC?) test sats that are growing like mushrooms!

208

In the end there was no upper stage & this plain old LM-2C was launched successfully at 04:01 UTC w/ a trio of latest Chinese "just practicing thingys", Shijian 30 A to C, described as for “Space Environment Measurements” purposes. I dunno what that really means haha. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

209

Given the orbit and maximum capability of the LM-2C, it's likely a trio of satellites of the same mass would have been sent up by a big Falcon 9 w/ booster coming back to launch site these days. But in China they are still lifted by the design of the half-century old DF-5 ICBM!

210

We may possibly never know for sure what the SJ-30 satellites do, but for something that uses the namesake of China's 2nd oldest satellites names series (starting w/ SJ-1 launched March 1971), it must be "putting something to practice". What is it though?

                            211
                        
The obligatory drone birds-eye views at JSLC:

                        0:25

212

Can the Long March 2C - now flying under the same name for 43 straight years since before the Space Shuttle was even "operational" - reach 50 straight years in service? With the Chinese finding it (& similar LM-2D) cheap to operate, never write them (or the LM-3/4 series) out!

213

Well that's a very quick investigation into the November 10 Ceres-1 launch failure by Galactic Energy - another power cable burnt through due to improper thermal protection, this time one that controls valves on the upper stage engine causing shut down: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OVTDUL4mm4DJ…

214

In a few hours' time, the newest Chinese orbital "thingy" is expected to launch into somewhere farther than LEO for whatever it is tasked with:

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Another puzzling launch will be @ Xichang on November 21 ~10:55 UTC, this time "apparently" a Long March 3B also towards SE. Medium inclination BLEO launches for LM-3B, other than Beidou, carries puzzling payloads like Shiyan 10 & MEO test comsats. Sorry, but this is scary to me!

215

In the end whatever is on board this LM-3B going to a ~5x° inclination orbit now belongs to probably China's "most scary" series of satellites, the group that you are wanted to call them "communication test sats". Yup, it's TJSW-21 that was successfully launched at 10:55 UTC.

                            216
                        
Another post-dusk liftoff for the venerable Long March 3B in the valleys of Xichang:

                        0:41

217

Rocket stacking and the mission (satellite, rocket)'s patches for your analysis:

218

BTW the LM-3B/C series is now up to 13 launches this year, a pretty high rate that puts it only behind Electron, that certain rocket that must not be named and ironically its (partially) replacements of the LM-6/7/8 series. There should be time to add in 2 more next month!

                            219
                        
The USSF @SpaceTrackOrg has found the satellite & LM-3B 3rd stage in an inclined super-GTO:

2025-269A/66586: 207 x 40084 km x 51.05°

2025-269B/66587: 186 x 40020 km x 51.36°

220

@SpaceTrackOrg Oops, not GTO/I but Molniya orbit instead:

Jonathan McDowell@planet4589

TJS 21 cataloged in 51 deg elliptical transfer orbit and
is likely heading to a Molniya orbit - it is apparently a successor to TJS 13.

221

Amid speculations that piled up & an “acceptable risk” period of weeks for the current CSS crew to use Shenzhou 20 w/ a broken porthole window as their lifeboat, the fresh Shenzhou 22 will finally launch in < 4 hours as the replacement, w/ some cargo of opportunity going up too.

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

The 3rd one? Why it's none other than hotly talked about Shenzhou 22 launching w/o crew to the CSS to replace window-broken Shenzhou 20 of course, now confirmed for launch on November 25 @ ~04:11 UTC. Looks like CMSEO will take this opportunity to fly it w/ extra cargo too!

222

What is interesting is that CMSEO either has a mission patch ready for just this, or quickly whipped up one, for this mission. “TGYJ1” here means “Tiangong Space Station(/CSS) Contingency (Mission) 1”. The bow and arrow theme is certainly apt for its purpose!

223

Even more surprisingly, it seems state television CCTV IS going to cover the launch, no doubt proudly showing how their CSS contingency plans prepared years ago are put into practice, especially in hastening S/C & rocket preparations.
Check back @ ~03:30 UTC for coverage details!

224

BTW here's the official CMSEO statement from half a day ago that the Long March 2F rocket for this launch has been fueled for launch:

225

State media Xinhua just confirmed the 04:11 UTC T-0 for the launch of Shenzhou 22.

226

And here's the official English coverage:
youtube.com/watch?v=3JldB3…

227

CCTV coverage has started - clear skies at JSLC:

228

It's less than T-30 minutes from the launch of what the Space Shuttle Program would have called a "Launch-On-Need" mission for a human spaceflight &...you have reporters reporting right next to the rocket?
That's China I guess LOL.

229

The stream confirms that Shenzhou 22 & its LM-2F rocket were prepared for launch in 16 days (1 of 2 contingency plans reported in the books, w/ an even faster 8.5 days plan available) - they were delivered to JSLC well before Shenzhou 21 launched just for cases like this.

230

It happens that Shenzhou 22 is the 1st of a new block of Shenzhou spacecraft, with improved control panels for astronauts and some weight trimming for more payload. Apparently 600 kg of upmass cargo will be carried on this unplanned opportunity.
Ignition time is 04:11:42 UTC.

231

On its way:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Lift-off

232

Something's different inside this Shenzhou spacecraft on the way up:

233

Spacecraft separation and solar panels deployment has been confirmed. As per Shenzhou missions lately, docking to the CSS is planned ~3.5 hours after launch.

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

🚀 Liftoff! At 04:11:45.459 UTC on November 25, Long March 2F Y22 launched Shenzhou-22 spacecraft from Jiuquan. This marks a historic first: the spacecraft is launching uncrewed to meet astronauts already waiting in orbit. In place of a crew, Shenzhou-22 is carrying essential resupplies to the space station."

234

And here comes the launch success "Big Red Screen" (TM).
Exact T-0 was 04:11:45.459 UTC.

235

I guess the LM-2F launch team really needs a cheer since unlike the multiple (read: Crew Dragon w/ its flexibility to carry 7) crew S/C choices on the ISS in the cases of Soyuz MS-22 & Starliner CFT, the Chinese HAS to launch SZ-22 ASAP as replacement & did this LON launch well!

236

Regarding Shenzhou 20, Shenzhou 22 is launching some "treatment device" (extra thermal protection panels?) for the broken SZ-20 descent module window for installation, after inspection during a future CSS spacewalk. Then SZ-20 will come back w/o crew a la Soyuz MS-22 & Starliner.

237

The short trip to the CSS was uneventful:

Andrew Jones@AJ_FI

Shenzhou-22 docked with the forward port at Tiangong space station at 0750 UTC. The Shenzhou-21 astronauts have their lifeboat, and China has successfully dealt with its first major human spaceflight emergency situation. cmse.gov.cn/xwzx/202511/t2…

238

Sorry for the long pause in reports - I have been working to update on various upcoming Chinese rockets and has finally made some progress - as you can see it’s updating various rocket/pad/launch info on databases I am helping out w/ today. Coming Soon (TM) here before Dec 1st!

239

Right, my plan has fallen behind again, but thankfully I might have just gained some time because literally this may have just happened ("may" since there's no direct evidence, but the buzz is just like this) that forced ZQ-3 from Monday's launch window. Absolutely extraordinary.

240

Anyway in the mean time other Chinese rockets aren't waiting either. Firstly a look back to Shenzhou 22's launch...

SegerYU@SegerYU

CZ-2F/G Y22 火箭。
（📷张斌）

241

And then in <10 hours from now @ Wenchang, a Long March 7A is planning to launch beyond LEO on November 30 ~12:20 UTC. Strangely the date's known beforehand because apparently a singer scheduled a concert there at the same time, perhaps to say things like this w/ launch as B/G!

242

(it's him BTW: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hua_Chenyu)

243

It's pretty likely someone will try to stream the launch later today in ~5 hours. Check back here for possible links!
In the mean time here's the LM-7A moving to the launch pad 2 days ago: m.weibo.cn/detail/5238055…

0:54

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

And then in <10 hours from now @ Wenchang, a Long March 7A is planning to launch beyond LEO on November 30 ~12:20 UTC. Strangely the date's known beforehand because apparently a singer scheduled a concert there at the same time, perhaps to say things like this w/ launch as B/G!

244

Oops I just woke up and...here it is: m.weibo.cn/detail/5238786…

0:18

245

And yup it was another classified "thingy" on this one, this time apparently experimental because it's named Shijian 28, i.e. being put into the "putting things into practice" series that has been China's 2nd oldest satellite name, since Shijian 1 of 1971.
T-0 was at 12:20 UTC.

                            246
                        
Another view of the launch with the deep rumble of the 6 YF-100 staged-combustion kerosene/LOX engines:

                        0:18

247

More close range photos:
m.weibo.cn/detail/5238792… / m.weibo.cn/detail/5238790… / m.weibo.cn/detail/5238795…

248

And I missed this fan livestream! Whoops.

ThatSpaceDogeGuy@TheSpaceDogeGuy

In a few hours time, Long March 7A will be launching from Wenchang, Hainan!!
We will be LIVE with our co-host @PhazzeeYeehaw..

Watch here: youtube.com/watch?v=_xskTT…

249

This thing is found in a standard GTO, as expected:

Jonathan McDowell@planet4589

LAUNCH at 1220 UTC Nov 30 of China's Shi Jian 28.
SJ-28 and the CZ-7A third stage have been tracked in a 204 x 35806 km x 14.4 deg geotransfer orbit.

250

A re-cap of a special documentary made for the discovery of the window crack on Shenzhou 20 and the activation/implementation of contingency plans up to launch of Shenzhou 22 (long thread):

Andrew Jones@AJ_FI

A tiny crack in a spacecraft window triggered China’s first-ever emergency launch to Tiangong space station. A CCTV article reveals what happened over 20 intense days, and why a piece of space debris smaller than 1 mm forced the emergency response.

                            251
                        
There's a lot of flux in the Chinese reusable rockets front, perhaps with at least 1 still flying in the next few days (more on that later), but putting that aside there's at least 2 more launches within the week from them (1 of which a delayed one)!

252

One is from Jiuquan on December 6 ~04:00 UTC, & it looks like yet another try by private LSP i-Space to get their Hyperbola-1 on track. With a dismal record of 4 successes & 4 failures out of 8, whatever the outcome, we can expect surprises out of it (not the least the payload)!

253

The other, also on December 6 but @ ~07:50 UTC, is the Long March 8A launch (almost certainly w/ more SatNet LEO comsats) at Wenchang that was once planned on November 19 but got delayed just several days before. Apparently CASC may launch another LM-8A *before December is out*!

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Meanwhile another Chinese launch on the horizon: there were reports of another LM-8A launch @ the “commercial side” of Wenchang this month: it’s now confirmed for November 19 ~13:00 UTC. With so many Chinese LEO comsats waiting for a ride, there’s a lot of launch work yet to do!

254

It would be very funny if this coincides with the Chinese recovering a rocket booster from an orbital-bound launch through propulsion right before this happens, barely weeks after @blueorigin finally nailed it down…

House Science Committee@housescience

🚨 This Thursday, December 4th, at 9:00 AM EST!

Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee Hearing: "Strategic Trajectories: Assessing China’s Space Rise and the Risks to U.S. Leadership"

📍 2318 Rayburn House Office Building

255

Wow.
After all these last minute hangouts, this is really happening???
And I literally have one day to finish writing on it???

Mark down December 3 @ 03:52-04:49 UTC, i.e. 26 hours from now. This might just be happening.

256

Yup, it looks like @LandSpace_Tech is launching ZQ-3 on December 3 after all. The brand new NOTAMs even has a more refined launch window!

(graphs by Domi207/space-notices.vercel.app)

257

@LandSpace_Tech Looks like there is NO real payload after all, just a mass simulator on top. But they will attempt both landing the booster AND doing a 2nd burn of the 2nd stage.

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

The sheet of ZQ-3 Y1 fight sequence.

258

Forget ZQ-3 for the moment, looks like yet another enigma launch's booked @ Jiuquan! Air/marine space closure notices seems to point to a launch there December 4 ~09:00 UTC, very similar to one used by the infamous Kuaizhou-1A that apparently blew up on pad March 1st this year.

259

The zone isn't an exact match, but it's close, and is unusual enough (on a trajectory that would result in a ~70° inclination orbit) that maybe this launch will resolve the mystery of what was destroyed 9 months ago at the very same site, just up the road of the ZQ-3 pad...

260

And as for the launch we all are waiting for? Well there wasn't much news at all...until this photo came out:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

via 宇宙浪漫旅

261

It's probably not a surprise to some of you, but looking at Chinese social media the ones most anxious about this launch locally are...those tracking Chinese stock markets by the seconds. And so Tencent News is going to have a re-cap program post-launch.😅

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

lol, After-stream. T+30min of the launch. via view.inews.qq.com/k/RLV202512030…

                            262
                        
And unfortunately even this program is now gone so...yeah let's wait for news here.

263

Looks like my introduction of ZQ-3 will happen after it flies for its 1st time.
@LandSpace_Tech has already nailed the 1st ever use of methane rocket engines to orbit. Can they stun the West & even state institutions in China again today?

Graphics source: m.weibo.cn/detail/5239720…

                            264
                        
@LandSpace_Tech Unconfirmed reports that liftoff HAS occurred at the top of the hour!

265

@LandSpace_Tech

天宇追箭者@Skyfeather16

起飞！！！

                            266
                        
@LandSpace_Tech

                        1:24

                            267
                        
@LandSpace_Tech Well...apparently no landing of booster today. But they apparently got pretty close!

                        0:12

268

@LandSpace_Tech HOLY CRAP THEY AT LEAST HAVE BEATEN NEW GLENN ON FLIGHT 1!

269

@LandSpace_Tech And even more importantly...apparently ZQ-3 has reached orbit on the first try! Even in this nerfed initial configuration, this is almost close to a Neutron class rocket!

From a company that has launched just 7 times before since 2018 and touched orbit 4 times.

Extraordinary.

270

@LandSpace_Tech Suddenly this little known private Chinese company from Beijing, formed just a decade ago, may have gave the most powerful punch on rocket reusability & medium class LV development to even the likes of
@blueorigin. They came so close to equalize out of freaking nowhere!

271

@LandSpace_Tech @blueorigin I really think the likes of @rookisaacman, @davill, @Peter_J_Beck, @ericschmidt, @Jason_Lil_Kim, @AndyLapsa, even @elonmusk really needs to think about what this launch from a little known Chinese company means to rockets.
Sometimes, the biggest rival might be somewhere else.

                            272
                        
@LandSpace_Tech @blueorigin @rookisaacman @davill @Peter_J_Beck @ericschmidt @Jason_Lil_Kim @AndyLapsa @elonmusk Low-res drone view of the ZQ-3 launching:

                        0:29

273

@LandSpace_Tech @blueorigin @rookisaacman @davill @Peter_J_Beck @ericschmidt @Jason_Lil_Kim @AndyLapsa @elonmusk ...and the video you all are waiting for: birds-eye view of the ZQ-3 first stage's botched landing burn. It was *that* close you know, getting further than the first New Glenn booster did and around where SpaceX were for Falcon 9 in late 2014-early 2015!
m.weibo.cn/detail/5239754…

0:25

274

@LandSpace_Tech @blueorigin @rookisaacman @davill @Peter_J_Beck @ericschmidt @Jason_Lil_Kim @AndyLapsa @elonmusk State media has confirmed the outcomes as posted above (m.weibo.cn/detail/5239764…), though LandSpace themselves still hasn't posted their official update.

Meanwhile here's the launch from another spectator's angle: m.weibo.cn/detail/5239764…

0:46

275

@LandSpace_Tech @blueorigin @rookisaacman @davill @Peter_J_Beck @ericschmidt @Jason_Lil_Kim @AndyLapsa @elonmusk First official launch photos:

276

@LandSpace_Tech @blueorigin @rookisaacman @davill @Peter_J_Beck @ericschmidt @Jason_Lil_Kim @AndyLapsa @elonmusk Official LandSpace press release is here - they specifically confirmed that the 2nd stage successfully completed its re-ignition & 2nd burn: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/l0HitsBfMN1F…

277

@LandSpace_Tech @blueorigin @rookisaacman @davill @Peter_J_Beck @ericschmidt @Jason_Lil_Kim @AndyLapsa @elonmusk And finally, pad cameras from LandSpace!
m.weibo.cn/detail/5239778…

278

@LandSpace_Tech @blueorigin @rookisaacman @davill @Peter_J_Beck @ericschmidt @Jason_Lil_Kim @AndyLapsa @elonmusk ZQ-3 pre-launch:

279

BTW for the record of @planet4589 etc. it seems exact liftoff time was 04:02:20 UTC; unfortunately neither Xinhua nor LandSpace themselves' articles have listed a launch time.

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Confirmed lift off at 120220

280

@planet4589 Pre-launch processing and testing of the first ZQ-3 flight vehicle:

281

More photos:

282

More photos from SpaceLens, which got excellent front seats for their cameras: m.weibo.cn/detail/5239789…

283

Ignition:

284

ZQ-3 liftoff time sequence from m.weibo.cn/detail/5239790… :

285

9 methane/LOX powered gas-generator cycle TQ-12A engines thrusting this stainless steel rocket towards orbit:

286

Almost feels like the whole A-Team of rocket photographers across China are in Jiuquan SLC for this launch: m.weibo.cn/detail/5239788…

287

More twilight pad photos of "Site 96B", as this pad is apparently formally known as:

                            288
                        
Mission overview from LandSpace - some sharp-eyed Chinese spaceflight fan noticed the blurred out velocity-altitude diagram and has some interesting observations on the booster recovery trajectory, which I'm going to translate soon.

                        0:55

289

OK T-0 was 04:00 UTC after all:

LandSpace@LandSpace_Tech

ZhuQue-3 Y1 Reusable Launch Vehicle Successfully Completes Orbital Mission

On December 3, 2025, 12:00 p.m. (UTC+8), ZhuQue-3 (ZQ-3) Y1 launch vehicle lifted off from the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Pilot Zone, successfully completing its flight mission with successfully orbit insertion.

290

The planned launch timeline, now official:

LandSpace@LandSpace_Tech

Here is the ZQ-3 Y1 Flight Profile for Orbital Mission and First Stage Recovery System Verification Test

ZQ-3 Y1 Orbital Mission Flight Profile

T-0s, Lift-off
T+129s, S1 Main Engine Cutoff (MECO)
T+134s, S1/S2 Stage Separation
T+138s, S2 First Engine Start (SES-1)
T+324s, Fairing Jettison
T+499s, S2 First Engine Cutoff (SECO-1), Orbit Insertion
T+1899s S2 Second Engine Start (SES-2)
T+1916s, S2 Second Engine Engine Cutoff (SECO-2)
T+1980s, Terminal Velocity Correction End
T+2010s, Passivation Start
T+3025s, Passivation End

For ZQ-3 Y1 First Stage Recovery System Verification Test

T+134s, S1/S2 Stage Separation
T+371s, Re-entry Burn Start
T+417s, Re-entry Burn CutOff
T+480s, Landing Burn Start
T+491s, Landing Burn End, Outer Landing Engines Cutoff
T+510s, Tounchdown, Center Landing Engine Cutoff

291

LOL @DJIGlobal is using this launch to advertise their latest UAV... m.weibo.cn/detail/5239856…

0:17

                            292
                        
USSF @SpaceTrackOrg has now found the ZQ-3 2nd stage - it looks like the 2nd burn moved it to an eccentric orbit that has a high apogee, but has a low enough perigee for it to re-enter soon:

2025-282A/66877: 142 x 1402 km x 56.95°

293

View from the pad tower:

Selesha@thebestkirin87

Another stunning footage of the Zhuque-3 launch, captured by a DJI OSMO

294

Conveniently located debris field:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Looks like a minor damage of the landing pad & road. It seems the impact point is just located between the pad and road.

295

ZQ-3 seen from satellite passing over JSLC a day before launch:
bsky.app/profile/spacef…

296

Fish-eye view of the ZQ-3 launch from the pad tower:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Close-up footage when ZQ-3' lift-off. Clipped from bilibili.com/video/BV1c124B…. Via SpaceLens

297

All interest have been put on ZQ-3 the past day, but don't forget there might be more than a dozen more from China before 2025 is off! Firstly though, this KZ-1A launch next door to the ZQ-3 pad has slipped 1 day to December 5 ~09:00 UTC...

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Forget ZQ-3 for the moment, looks like yet another enigma launch's booked @ Jiuquan! Air/marine space closure notices seems to point to a launch there December 4 ~09:00 UTC, very similar to one used by the infamous Kuaizhou-1A that apparently blew up on pad March 1st this year.

298

...and while we wait for the "dark horse Chinese reusable rocket" Long March 12A to launch (rumored Dec. 12), its sibling-on-paper-also-by-SAST Long March 12 is also hanging out for a launch from Wenchang w/ maybe yet more SatNet LEO comsats on December 11 ~23:00 UTC! Messy huh?

299

So on the analysis of the ZQ-3 booster recovery profile, you can find it here - based on a single second scene in the LCC in the video below: m.weibo.cn/detail/5239819…
Firstly LandSpace shares the same telemetry display graphs with other Chinese rockets...

LandSpace@LandSpace_Tech

The ZhuQue-3 launch vehicle completed its maiden flight with all primary mission events performed nominally. The first stage flight was normal, stage separation performed as planned, and the fairing jettison and first stage landed precisely within the designated area. The second stage performed normally and achieved the target orbit, marking a complete success of the orbital launch mission.

During the first stage recovery system verification test, engines thrust throttling operated normally, attitude control remained stable, and the down range recovery trajectory was nominal. An anomaly occurred as the first stage approached the designated recovery zone. No personnel safety issues occurred. China’s first rocket recovery attempt achieved its expected technical objectives.

300

...which has the altitude (green line) & velocity (yellow line) usually on scales of 50 km & 500 m/s per marking on the left. The author notes that this means MECO was at ~1650 m/s, way lower than the usual 2200-2700 for Falcon 9 & ~2000 for New Glenn's 2 launches; yet...

                            301
                        
...after 134s of powered flight the 1st stage would cruise up to ~120 km high, even higher than F9 boosters after thrusting for ~155s. This shows ZQ-3 adapted to the closer down range pad than usual Falcon ASDS locations (390 km vs ~600) by flying a really lofted trajectory.

                            302
                        
This however means the booster would have a steeper re-entry & requires longer entry burns. On the ZQ-3 this time entry burn slows it down from ~1600 m/s to ~850, then it temporarily accelerated to around 920 before air resistance takes over (similar profile also seen on F9/NG).

                            303
                        
This author speculates that the steep ballistic trajectory + heavy 1st stage meant longer entry burn w/ high fuel usage, & thinks only 3 engines were used in this entry burn per deceleration calculations, not 5 as previously expected.
The landing burn part had patchy telemetry...

                            304
                        
...though if that "blip" could be believed, the author put the landing burn start at ~350 m/s w/ loss of data at ~340. It seems due to the booster being heavier, the burn seems to have started in the transonic phase, not Mach 0.7 as Falcons do. The quick deceleration means...

                            305
                        
...a quick deceleration is required, with the author speculating a "1-5-1" landing burn profile where the center engine starts first, then 4 nozzle-movable engines on the outer ring joins in for a period before shutting down for the center engine to finish the landing job.

                            306
                        
Did I just said the long queue of Chinese launches - not just ones using reusable boosters - is getting messy? Don’t worry, it is just getting even messier with 4 more confirmed early next week within 30 hours of each other! That also makes it 8 more over the next week.

307

In the N mountains of China, what’s probably their latest workhorse Long March 6A is gearing up for its 10th launch of 2025 (19th in total!) south from Taiyuan SLC on December 8~22:10 UTC. It’s nerve-racking to guess what’s on top though - SatNet? Qianfan? “Thingys”? You bet…

308

Meanwhile, as all eyes looking NW onto Jiuquan SLC would be interested in seeing rockets w/ legs, one other - “apparently” good old Long March 2D - will simply greet others with a polar orbit launch on December 9 ~03:40 UTC. No don’t ask me what’s on top because I have 0 idea!

309

Moving S to Xichang SLC, 1 of 2 Long March 3B launches to close out ‘25 will be launching on December 9 ~15:10 UTC. This seems to be for yet another highly classified “thingy” TJSW-22, but the GEO weather sat FY-4C is also possible. I can ask around but don’t expect any answers!

310

Then there’s @cas_space, working hard to get their Kinetica 2 off the ground @ Jiuquan (seems unlikely in ‘25 now but who knows), yet also ramping up flight rates of Kinetica 1 next door, & it seems their next will be on December 10 ~04:00 UTC w/ apparently 11 satellites. Hmm?

311

Speaking of LEO comsats, the Chinese are finally taking steps to offer their solutions (with Qianfan/SpaceSail/G60) to aircraft, and no surprises here that @Airbus is helping out with the deployment:

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

Airbus signed a cooperation agreement with Yuanxin Satellite to bring the G60/Spacesail LEO constellation to its aircraft. The deal will see Airbus integrate Yuanxin’s high-speed, low-latency LEO broadband into its onboard connectivity systems. The partnership aims to upgrade the passenger experience with better inflight Wi-Fi and improve fleet operational efficiency through real-time data.

312

Meanwhile on the CSS, the astronauts are finally going to inspect the cracked Shenzhou 20 descent module porthole window from the outside pretty soon:

Andrew Jones@AJ_FI

The Shenzhou-21 crew will be embarking on their first EVA in the coming days (quite possibly tomorrow), according to China's human spaceflight agency. Let's see if they go patch that crack in the Shenzhou-20 window. cmse.gov.cn/xwzx/202512/t2…

313

This launch's so elusive it escaped being listed on a extraordinarily exhaustive & (so far) accurate list of Chinese launches this month I have seen that lists 20+ (!) potential ones before 2025's out. And we should know what this is in the next few hours.

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Forget ZQ-3 for the moment, looks like yet another enigma launch's booked @ Jiuquan! Air/marine space closure notices seems to point to a launch there December 4 ~09:00 UTC, very similar to one used by the infamous Kuaizhou-1A that apparently blew up on pad March 1st this year.

314

It's really Kuaizhou-1A & the launch at 09:00 UTC successful, launching a pair of "Traffic VDES" satellites (A & B) that will test satellite transmissions of the VHF Data Exchange System (VDES) for ships/vessels, an upgrade to the current Automatic Identification Systems (AIS).

                            315
                        
VDES uses the VHF band to increase the bandwidth of AIS to allow for more ships to use it, as well as providing better messaging options for this now-indispensable traffic management system at sea.
A similar demo sat actually launched from the same spot in Dec 2022 on the KZ-11.

                        0:13

                            316
                        
This is BTW a Chinese government lead project with satellites built by the China Ministry of Transport's China Transport Telecommunications Information Center (CTTIC) & SpaceSail, operator of the Qianfan/G60 LEO comsat constellation.
Did 2 of these got destroyed on March 1st?

                        0:07

317

It looks like CASIC/ExPace got a new TEL truck for Kuaizhou-1A at Jiuquan (perhaps the old one really got written off?) and they finally got it shown off this time:

318

Updated list of successful launches of the Kuaizhou-1A since its debut in January 2017: m.weibo.cn/detail/5240560…

319

BTW the (almost certainly) Hyperbola-1 launch that should have been launched from this very same pad barely 19 hours after this KZ-1A has been delayed with NOTAMs cancelled, let's see if it's just a 1-for-1 day delay due to KZ-1A slipping from yesterday.

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

One is from Jiuquan on December 6 ~04:00 UTC, & it looks like yet another try by private LSP i-Space to get their Hyperbola-1 on track. With a dismal record of 4 successes & 4 failures out of 8, whatever the outcome, we can expect surprises out of it (not the least the payload)!

                            320
                        
Rocket camera from Zhuque-3!

                        1:19

                            321
                        
@LandSpace_Tech And the liftoff part:

                        0:31

322

@LandSpace_Tech There are reports that the real losers were the cameras placed next to the landing pad for attempting to capture the probable historic moment that very nearly happened here…

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Pad win , road lost

323

BTW LandSpace has the full mission overview video posted:

LandSpace@LandSpace_Tech

ZhuQue-3 Y1 Reusable Launch Vehicle Launch Mission Recap

324

It won’t be for long, but the ZQ-3 2nd stage is still in orbit:

s2a systems@s2a_systems

The one object catalogued so far from the ZhuQue-3 launch 2025-282, recorded on 2025-12-05 01:52:24 UTC.

325

After delayed for 2.5 weeks, this Long March 8A launch from Wenchang with most likely some LEO constellation comsats - not sure for which one - will finally occur in ~2 hours at ~07:50 UTC.
Someone's already streaming from on site: weibo.com/l/wblive/p/sho…

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Meanwhile another Chinese launch on the horizon: there were reports of another LM-8A launch @ the “commercial side” of Wenchang this month: it’s now confirmed for November 19 ~13:00 UTC. With so many Chinese LEO comsats waiting for a ride, there’s a lot of launch work yet to do!

326

Mirroring stream: youtube.com/watch?v=asQrUp…

327

You can see from here that the conventionally designed Launch Complex 1 at Wenchang's Commercial Space Launch Site is slowing opening up with servicing platforms slowly rotating to show the LM-8A rocket out in the open:

328

5th Long March 8A rocket - very much not a shabby flight rate since debuting on February 11 this year (!) - clearly now out in the open:

329

Just above ~20 minutes till launch:

330

T-0 is apparently pointing at 07:52 UTC:

331

Actual T-0 seems to be closer to 07:53 UTC:

332

LM-8A going downrange:

333

Well, no surprises from this Long March 8A launch either, as the newest group of LEO comsats (with perhaps "additional functions" for the Chinese government, SatNet LEO Group 14, got successfully deployed in orbit after lift off at 07:53 UTC.

                            334
                        
And that means 5 launches for the LM-8A since debuting less than 10 months ago, all in support of SatNet deployment. Actually it now flew more times than the baseline LM-8! Not bad for a rocket that can lift as much as the trusted single stick Atlas V 401/501...

                        0:44

                            335
                        
There wasn't any surprise for this Long March with an "A"...but 1500 miles away, another Long March rocket that has the same letter suffix, one that has literally flown under the radar for years, just provided another stunning news. And that means I have homework to crunch AGAIN!

336

Yes, it's *the* rocket that has suddenly come out of nowhere from the depths of Chinese state institutions, promising making spaceflight news headlines w/ high confidence.
The reusable Long March 12A apparently just successfully did a static fire on its launch pad at Jiuquan SLC.

337

Back to the LM-8A, here are the pad and drone camera views:

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

🚀 Liftoff at 07:53UTC on December 06, Long March 8A Y5 launched SatNet LEO Group 14 from Hainan commercial launch pad #1

338

Panorama views:

天宇追箭者@Skyfeather16

今天下午，长八甲火箭伴着南海的波涛和云朵飞向天空😃
摄影师：Alex青草青水鸟

339

Rocket processing and mission patch:

340

After disappearing for the weekend, this launch probably from i-Space has resurfaced for NET December 15 @ 04:00-06:00 UTC:

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

One is from Jiuquan on December 6 ~04:00 UTC, & it looks like yet another try by private LSP i-Space to get their Hyperbola-1 on track. With a dismal record of 4 successes & 4 failures out of 8, whatever the outcome, we can expect surprises out of it (not the least the payload)!

341

It's a huge dump of confusions inbound as at least several Chinese satellite launches are coming within days, with this one now launching just before sunrise in China and minutes before yet another Starlink launch:

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

In the N mountains of China, what’s probably their latest workhorse Long March 6A is gearing up for its 10th launch of 2025 (19th in total!) south from Taiyuan SLC on December 8~22:10 UTC. It’s nerve-racking to guess what’s on top though - SatNet? Qianfan? “Thingys”? You bet…

342

Someone with contacts in N China will attempt to pick out a bright spot in the pre-dawn night skies from this launch again... youtube.com/watch?v=KUN9VW…

                            343
                        
And apparently liftoff did occur with a bright reddish spot streaking the skies in the stream above.

344

Photographed from Taiyuan city center (which is actually >100 km from the launch site): m.weibo.cn/detail/5241827…

0:21

345

The rocket was also easily seen way downrange, like here in Guangzhou: m.weibo.cn/detail/5241837…

                            346
                        
In the end it's the state owned constellation sending more satellites on this LM-6A, which successfully launched SatNet LEO Group 15 after lift off at 22:11 UTC. Just hear those Chinese SRBs rumbling:

                        0:23

347

BTW those 4 SRBs do make out a cross when they separate: m.weibo.cn/detail/5241856…

348

That makes it 14 different batches of SatNet/Guowang satellites launched in 2025 so far and 108 satellites launched - not a big number but these satellites are apparently bigger than the Western ones, and serves more like the @NRO Starshields & @SemperCitiusSDA PWSA counterparts.

349

Trail of gold of solid rocket fuel:

350

The next Chinese launch to orbit is barely 1.5 hours away & there are already pre-launch surprises: an extra drop zone was ID-ed & thus this is NOT an LM-2D launch, but probably 1 w/ extra stage, the Long March 4 series (probably LM-4C but 4B is possible).

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Meanwhile, as all eyes looking NW onto Jiuquan SLC would be interested in seeing rockets w/ legs, one other - “apparently” good old Long March 2D - will simply greet others with a polar orbit launch on December 9 ~03:40 UTC. No don’t ask me what’s on top because I have 0 idea!

351

...nice to meet you? I would have never guessed the rocket & payload combo for this, even if it was kinda an old classic pairing!
This Long March 4*B* successfully launched the latest Chinese spysat, Yaogan 47, into (almost certainly Sun-synchronous) orbit at 03:41 UTC.

                            352
                        
There was a long period over the past 20 years when the Delta II-class Long March 4 series were one of the main backbones in lifting Chinese reconnaissance & other classified assets to orbit. Yet new rockets have mostly supplanted them and so this launch's definitely a surprise!

                        0:34

353

It's a sign of usage tapering off when the LM-4 series only has 5 launches in 2025 so far, a far cry from its peak. But it still does have jobs & there may be a 6th next week!

As for what's on top...no idea, YG-47 was given the most boring "generic spysat description" possible.

354

Eerie photo of the LM-4B rocket shooting past the noontime Moon and an equally eerie mission logo (highly decorated snowflakes?):

                            355
                        
Another video of the launch:

                        0:59

356

On to the next launch, which is happening right as I speak...

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Moving S to Xichang SLC, 1 of 2 Long March 3B launches to close out ‘25 will be launching on December 9 ~15:10 UTC. This seems to be for yet another highly classified “thingy” TJSW-22, but the GEO weather sat FY-4C is also possible. I can ask around but don’t expect any answers!

357

These guys are at it again and caught the (most likely) LM-3B gliding across the camera as a bright spot:
youtube.com/watch?v=1mH8oN…

358

Meanwhile some news about the CSS - the "Chinese Cygnus" by @CAS_Space is coming along nicely:

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

A first look of Qingzhou-1 cargo spacecraft

                            359
                        
@cas_space It seems it will be quite a while before this will really fly though (like maybe half a year?).
I wonder if a certain winged spacecraft under the same program will fly first...

360

Speaking of the CSS, the long-talked-about Shenzhou 21 crew's 1st EVA is complete (~02:45-10:45 UTC Dec. 9), w/ Zhang Lu & Wu Fei taking photos of the broken porthole window of Shenzhou 20 from the outside, plus extra MMOD shield installation & thermal MLI blankets replacement.

361

As for the Long March 3B launch, it was indeed the latest of the "so-highly-classified-that-you-are-wanted-to-call-it-a-GEO-communication-technology-testing-satellite" series, TJSW-22, that was launched successfully after liftoff at 15:08 UTC.

                            362
                        
That makes it 3 launches for the Chinese state enterprise for spaceflight inside 17 hours, not bad for the one organization on planet Earth that can do it outside of a-certain-Southern-California-now-Southern-Texas-space-company-that-must-not-be-named...

                        0:25

363

There are rumors for one more LM-3B launch before 2025 is out (apparently December 27) and that one is very likely to be for the geostationary weather satellite Fengyun-4C (FY-4C). Busy days all around Chinese launch sites (A LOT more coming very soon...)!

364

And "Monkey King" Sun Wukong is featured in yet another Chinese satellite launch mission logo this time...spare some thoughts for his 3 team mates who haven't make it to one yet...

365

Meanwhile, short video showing the Shenzhou 21 crew 1st EVA earlier today:

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

Shenzhou-21 have completed their first EVA. Astronauts ZHANG Lu and WU Fei worked together to inspect Shenzhou-20 spacecraft, install debris shields, et al

                            366
                        
BTW CMSEO reported after this spacewalk (where Wu Fei became the youngest Chinese to do one) the Shenzhou 21 crew will patch the broken porthole window on Shenzhou 20's descent module prior to its empty trip back (w/ thermal shields apparently from the interior so no EVA needed).

367

Within the next 2 hours the 4th Chinese launch to orbit inside 30 hours' time will happen. And luckily this time we don't need to guess on what rocket it's launching at least...

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Then there’s @cas_space, working hard to get their Kinetica 2 off the ground @ Jiuquan (seems unlikely in ‘25 now but who knows), yet also ramping up flight rates of Kinetica 1 next door, & it seems their next will be on December 10 ~04:00 UTC w/ apparently 11 satellites. Hmm?

368

...thanks to launch service provider CAS Space reminding us explicitly:

CAS Space@cas_space

As we approach T-24 h for Mission Y11, we present you with a nozzle POV from the Y10 recap. Enjoy the raw, unedited roar of Kinetica-1!

369

There are apparently 11 satellites flying on this Kinetica-1 launch, and there's at least one foreign passenger (that's great, SpaceX & Rocket Lab etc. are hands full for SSO bound launches so good to see the Chinese picking up some of the lift shortfall!)

Andrew Jones@AJ_FI

Relentless. China's 83rd launch of the year is scheduled for ~0400 UTC Wednesday, this time a Kinetica-1 solid rocket from CAS Space. A nano satellite developed by Nepali students to be among the payloads.

370

And here comes the launch success official report. Satellites from the UAE and Egypt in addition to Nepal? Whoa!
x.com/cas_space/stat…

371

Liftoff of this 5th Kinetica-1 launch of 2025 (of 11 overall!) was at 04:03 UTC:

372

@cas_space This Kinetica-1 has managed to graze over the Sun and the Moon in one go - whoa!

                            373
                        
@cas_space Notice the roll control thrusters in work at the base of the first stage solid rocket fuel motor!

                        0:21

374

@cas_space "Create The Future" huh?
(some photos courtesy of m.weibo.cn/detail/5242289…)

375

@cas_space Here are some more good photos of the launch from @cas_space themselves:

376

@cas_space And right as I type this I am trying to figure out at least 2 more Chinese launches to orbit over the next few days. Man that's a task full of headaches!

377

@cas_space Cool view of the rocket integration facility at JSLC:

CAS Space@cas_space

This ain't our conclusion to 2025. Two more CAS Space projects are still in the works!

378

@cas_space "Cooked" indeed!

CAS Space@cas_space

The ride-sharing flight of Y11, "Create the Future", sets Kinetica-1's launch record with 84 satellites delivered, totaling over 11 tonnes. Our space pros are thrilled to bring together industry leaders, new startups, and young talent from around the globe.

Our photography team really cooked this time!

379

@cas_space W

CAS Space@cas_space

Kudos to the brilliant drone operators and photographers for this magnificent launch recap video. Massive W for the team!

                            380
                        
@cas_space Full mission review video:

                        1:37

                            381
                        
So I finally figured out the deal w/ 2 more Chinese launches to orbit over the next week, and the less be said about the headaches to identify them with anything concrete, the better. But my own conclusions for both are really surprising in themselves!

                            382
                        
A drop zone at sea right on the doorsteps of the Haiyang spaceport at Shandong on December 13 ~01:05 UTC has caused huge headaches for me because I’ve seen nothing like it! Others suggested exotic solutions including even fitting the long-awaited LM-12A launch to it…

                            383
                        
…which can be safely excluded due to the resulting track way too far from its booster landing zone. It can also be a Haiyang launch (in particular related to faint rumors of the stock LM-12 going for sea launch soon), but lack of down range drop zones & local rumors’ bothersome.

384

Ultimately my highly non-confident conclusion is a rocket we have met the other day - a LM-6 launch from Taiyuan SLC to mid-incl. orbit Dec. 13 ~01:05 UTC. At least the single zone ~900 km downrange more or less fits w/ several LM-6 launches (w/ zones just to this one’s south).

                            385
                        
The other is a launch from Jiuquan SLC towards SSO that I have been attributing to i-Space’s Hyperbola-1 for weeks (see thread above), supported by location of the 1 drop zone in Indian Ocean, yet I have seen persistent rumors suggesting sth else lately.
Then 2 more turned up.

386

Since previous Hyperbola-1 launches never had identified drop zones within China borders, this ID must have been wrong! The zones’ locations make up a combo not seen before, which means…huh?

Yup, Galactic Energy’s Ceres-2 rocket is likely debuting on December 15 ~04:05 UTC.

387

While far less “inspiring” than the many new Chinese rockets debuted or about to at JSLC lately (even Galactic Energy didn’t write on it much compared w/ their upcoming Pallas-1!), the Vega-class Ceres-2 still represents a leap in lift capability for China’s busiest private LSP.

388

I’ll write about it separately later (even if it will be brief - Ceres-2 isn’t even on their website!), but Galactic Energy certainly believes the Electron-class Ceres-1 may be too small to fight against the likes of state-owned Smart Dragon-3 & CAS Space’s Kinetica-1…

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

GALACTIC-ENERGY released the mission patch of CERES-2's debut launch

389

…so they came out something that looks pretty similar (by virtue of state-developed Chinese SRMs being sold everywhere) that can lift 1.3 tonnes to SSO. They are planning sea launches for it too & even exotic ideas of launching it on a EM railgun-sled to double its payload (!!!)

390

What’s in Galactic Energy’s mind when they decide to build Ceres-2, the Antares-class 1st-stage reusable kerosene/LOX based Pallas-1 & the Falcon 9/H class Pallas-2 at the same time? I’ve no idea, but this Ceres-2 launch w/ 6 satellites may well be an underrated step forward.

391

Another EVA re-cap - BTW brand new EVA suits were used by both astronauts this time around:

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

Recap of Shenzhou-21's first EVA, 8 hours and 17 minutes from 02:28UTC to 10:45UTC

392

While the Falcon 9 w/ Starlink sats at the Cape is currently stuck on the ground for 2 more hours, on the other side of planet Earth, there's also a Falcon 9-like-looking rocket also counting down to launch w/ (almost certainly) LEO comsats in ~3 hours.

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

...and while we wait for the "dark horse Chinese reusable rocket" Long March 12A to launch (rumored Dec. 12), its sibling-on-paper-also-by-SAST Long March 12 is also hanging out for a launch from Wenchang w/ maybe yet more SatNet LEO comsats on December 11 ~23:00 UTC! Messy huh?

393

It even almost has reusable features...well "almost", for this is NOT the illusive Long March 12A we all are waiting to see, but its distant sibling LM-12, which perhaps only shares a common tank diameter & some system components from the same state organization developer.

394

Even at that, the Long March 12 with its staged combustion kerosene/LOX engines - on its 4th launch - will support a hefty portion of Chinese satellite constellation deployments for now, until reusable rockets can really take over most of the efforts. m.weibo.cn/detail/5242815…

395

The roll out to the pad, several days ago:

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

Long March 12 on 12/12

396

@Space_Alioth It's a 12/12 launch right around sunrise for the Long March 12 in Wenchang in southern China in ~45 minutes from now.
SpaceLens is covering the launch live: live.bilibili.com/23118988

397

Fueling underway - this looks pretty like SLC-40 at the Cape (which just set a pad turn-around record of 50 hours, 44 minutes, 55 seconds BTW!) isn't it? 🙃

398

T-~15 minutes, as the sun is about to rise over the skies of Hainan Island in southern China:

399

Strongback retracting:

400

Liftoff of Long March 12 under the first rays of sunshine at the top of the hour, 23:00 UTC:

401

LM-12 waiting for launch around sunrise at Wenchang. Photos by @Space_Alioth: m.weibo.cn/detail/5242788…

402

Deep rumble from the LM-12's 4 YF-100 engines at liftoff: m.weibo.cn/detail/5242927…

1:38

403

It's 3.5 hours since launch and we are still waiting for official launch confirmation (lately quite a few Chinese launches took hours before that come so not indication of anything yet).
Meanwhile here's another launch view: m.weibo.cn/detail/5242939…

1:04

404

It almost looks like a launch of the good old Zenit (RIP)...
m.weibo.cn/detail/5242940…

405

Well complaining on the web worked! Official launch success confirmation has just come and, yup no surprises here, the Chinese state owned LEO comsat constellation SatNet/Guowang just got more satellites, as this 23:00 UTC launch successfully deployed SatNet LEO Group 16.

                            406
                        
Pad cameras!

                        0:14

407

The golden trail at Max-Q - photos by @Space_Alioth: m.weibo.cn/detail/5242979…

408

This guy managed to capture the moments of MECO and 1st stage separation: m.weibo.cn/detail/5242981…

1:04

409

While I am typing these, I got NOTAMs that confirm 2 more Chinese launches to orbit within the next week. One is a boring one. The other...well wait till you hear about it.
But before that, more lovely photos of this sunrise launch: m.weibo.cn/detail/5242985…

410

The trail of color brought along by high-performance rocket engines burning kerosene and liquid oxygen never gets old:

411

As for the 2 new Chinese launches? Well let's get the "boring" one out 1st. A NOTAM appeared days ago off Vietnam that shows a Long March 4 (B/C) rocket might be launching from Taiyuan SLC to SSO soon. This is now confirmed on December 16 ~03:15 UTC, for only the 6th time in '25.

                            412
                        
I have absolutely zero idea what that could be launching (as w/ a lot of payloads on the LM-4 series) BTW.

Now for the other one...well...

...it's coming.

IT'S REALLY COMING NOW.

413

Wherever & whenever you are, on bed or at work, be sure to keep your phone ready for text (almost surely, alas) updates. For you probably really don't wanna miss this one.

Mark your calendar for December 17, 02:00 UTC (or rather, 01:54 - 04:14 UTC).

THE LONG MARCH 12A IS HERE.

414

I usually am hesitant to assign a single NOTAM to a Chinese launch, much less eyes popping ones like this, but the drop zone (for fairings?)'s location/direction from Jiuquan SLC is way too fitting w/ the track almost directly crossing the LM-12A Landing Zone. It had to be it!

415

And that means I am now back in a hurry to write about Chinese reusable launchers again, although this LM-12A is difficult to talk about, with it literally flying under the radar for years, to the point airshow models & vague Powerpoint slides are what we know about its details!

416

A methane/LOX rocket that we only had a few blurry photos of its full existence, had a precursor that made a 75 km hop next to the sea in January & never heard of since, and had a state enterprise going to a private company to buy its 1st stage engines.

And it's going to land.

                            417
                        
It's 1 thing for a Chinese private company try returning a rocket stage on power boldly, it's another for risk-adverse Chinese state enterprises to try it. And when they do, you really wanna take a look - especially this coming barely 5 weeks after @blueorigin finally nailed it!

                        0:11

418

Can this coming-from-nowhere-or-out-from-the-blue Chinese rocket leave its name loudly in the exclusive club where only Falcon 9/H, Starship, New Glenn & Space Shuttle SRBs (+) were at, sending more shockwaves to the industry? 🤔

(+) Partial credit to Electron for parts reuse

                            419
                        
BTW I was actually hesitant to call it for LM-12A initially, but the most likely other Chinese rockets that could also fit w/ this drop zone - the LM-2C/D/4B/C - is ruled out due to their Jiuquan pad just being used 3 days ago. The LM-2F (unlikely anyway) stages even further.

                            420
                        
I've also considered LandSpace's Zhuque-2E (there's one waiting for launch at JSLC!), but it used 2 drop zones & the LZ-fairing drop zone combo here is closer to JSLC than what ZQ-2E used for its last 3 launches. SRB based LVs are ruled out w/ 1st drop zone much closer to pad.

421

We temporary move from the Long March 12A back to the Long March 12, which shares the same rocket builder, the same stage diameter, maybe other system components...and not much else: m.weibo.cn/detail/5243004…

422

The skies was just bright and dim enough at the same time for a twilight jellyfish to appear right at sunrise:

423

Full camera tracking from liftoff to fairing separation! That certainly took some skill...
bilibili.com/video/BV1bjmLB…

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Launch tracking from lift-off to firings sep. via bilibili/大火星际航行

424

Another note of things that should attract even more eyebrows on it: apparently the LM-12A pad at Jiuquan - described as a pad for testing - was built from desert in just 5 months (!!!) & exists because mods to support methane at the very pad we saw a launch 15h ago was delayed!

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Paint On, Good to go😄

425

A rocket launch that I don't even know if it's aimed at orbit (at least CCTV's military channel did tweet about notices on this yesterday so take that as a hint), much less the launch site& rocket & what's on top, should happen in just over an hour. This is so déjà vu...

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Ultimately my highly non-confident conclusion is a rocket we have met the other day - a LM-6 launch from Taiyuan SLC to mid-incl. orbit Dec. 13 ~01:05 UTC. At least the single zone ~900 km downrange more or less fits w/ several LM-6 launches (w/ zones just to this one’s south).

426

And this is from the probably easiest-to-find-contact launch service provider in China right now already...imagine trying to find a contact point for others!

Michael Nicolls@michaelnicollsx

When satellite operators do not share ephemeris for their satellites, dangerously close approaches can occur in space. A few days ago, 9 satellites were deployed from a launch from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Northwestern China. As far as we know, no coordination or deconfliction with existing satellites operating in space was performed, resulting in a 200 meter close approach between one of the deployed satellites and STARLINK-6079 (56120) at 560 km altitude. Most of the risk of operating in space comes from the lack of coordination between satellite operators - this needs to change.

427

Muhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha I got everything wrong except the fact that there's a launch!

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Turns out today's launch may be a KZ-11 from JSLC. via weibo.com/6065432153/Qib…

                            428
                        
"Didn't we meet the other day?" is the word for today, because it turns out I actually have heard of the payload before - but would have never guessed it for today's launch!
Today's result:
❎Launch site & pad
❎Launch vehicle
❎Launch service provider
❎Possible payload guesses

429

The correct answer is this small experiment hosting S/C from AZSPACE launching on CASIC/ExPace's Kuaizhou-11 from Jiuquan SLC, successfully deployed into orbit w/ another small sat after liftoff at 01:08 UTC.

Andrew Jones@AJ_FI

The final assembly, integration and testing of the payload module of Azspace's Di'er-5 (B300-L02) small cargo spacecraft is underway. mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Uv_kwZiB8yPN…

430

I guess given this KZ-11 is using a brand new larger fairing to fit this DEAR-5 experiments hosting S/C in, going to lower inclination orbit which small sat launchers at Jiuquan never tried before, this launch would have always been tough to guess LMAO.

Andrew Jones@AJ_FI

Di'er-5 ready for launch. mp.weixin.qq.com/s/YUXQFPKQLRNa…

                            431
                        
This Kuaizhou 11 - only the 4th ever to launch and the 3rd successful one after its failed debut in 2020 - can probably win the 2025 most sus-looking orbital launch vehicle award:

                        0:22

432

The DEAR-5 spacecraft, including a detailed description of it in English from AZSPACE themselves

                            433
                        
The thing that the initial roll control of the KZ-11 is provided by thrusters on that cone-shaped tip at the top of its fairing makes this one of the most unusual looking way to get to orbit these days:

                        0:32

434

Meanwhile schools & companies at Wuxi in Jiangsu Province, where AZSPACE is, got the opportunity to send some of their artwork and mascots on board DEAR-5. Alas this one isn't going to return to Earth intact though (unlike future AZSPACE S/Cs)...

WLR2678🌌@WLR_2678

Apparently a pair of Xiaolongbao will serve as the zero-g indicator on this launch

435

Come to think of it, this large fairing KZ-11 actually kinda looks like the infamous Ares I (RIP)...

436

BTW do note that this is actually the 2nd time AZSPACE try to fly their B300-L class experiment hosting spacecraft to orbit - the 1st was DEAR-3 that was lost in CAS Space's Kinetica-1 launch failure almost 1 year ago:

WLR2678🌌@WLR_2678

@Fifongirmfo @AJ_FI The B300-Ls can sustain for much longer, up to a year and more. Di'er-3 (B300-L01) launched on Kinetica-1 Y06 last December but unfortunately was lost to the launch failure. Di'er-5 is B300-L02, the second one in the series.

437

BTW regarding the Starlink satellite close call with hitting one of the satellites from the latest Kinetica-1 launch reported by @michaelnicollsx, CAS Space has officially replied:

CAS Space@cas_space

Our team is currently in contact for more details. All CAS Space launches select their launch windows using the ground-based space awareness system to avoid collisions with known satellites/debris. This is a mandatory procedure. We will work on identifying the exact details and provide assistance as the LSP.

438

Meanwhile, as another Chinese reusable rocket is about to launch for its 1st time, @LandSpace_Tech's ZQ-3 project manager Zhang Xiaodong reflects on the booster recovery attempt:

WLR2678🌌@WLR_2678

#Zhuque3's chief engineer Zhang Xiaodong: the Y1 flight was extremely valuable and collected data through downlink and FDR. Team learned more about HF dynamics and where the redundancy was too much/design was inadequate. We estimated 80% chance of a successful flight prior to Y1.

439

Details of the Starlink - Kinetica-1-launched payload close encounter:

Jonathan McDowell@planet4589

Looks like 56120 and 67001 came close around 0642:04 UTC Dec 12, 1600 km SW of Baja, based on the TLEs. We don't know which sat of the 9 launched by LJ-1 is the one the US is tracking as 67001. @michaelnicollsx

440

Yeah over 2 days since launch falls into a period where currently USSF @SpaceTrackOrg is unfortunately of little help given they are struggling to keep up with so many newish objects in orbit lately:

CAS Space@cas_space

If confirmed, this incident occurred nearly 48 hours after payload separation, by which time the launch mission had long concluded. CAS Space will coordinate with satellite operators to proceed. This calls for re-establishing collaborations between the two New Space ecosystems.

441

Another angle at the situation:

Jonathan McDowell@planet4589

The response by @cas_space which seems reasonable. Launch coordination can't account for satellite positions two days after launch. SpaceX's normal position is "we avoid automatically using the TLEs". So is the real problem that the TLEs don't come out soon enough?

442

This will be hard to implement alas (various classified payloads: you called me?)

Michael Nicolls@michaelnicollsx

@cas_space We appreciate the responsiveness and look forward to engaging in coordination for future launches. Establishing data sharing between all satellite operators is critical.

443

Speaking of LEO constellations, here are photos from SpaceLens (who made the live webcast) of the latest Chinese launch for these, 2 days ago: m.weibo.cn/detail/5243135…

444

It really looks like the Zenit (or the upcoming Soyuz-5 *cough*) with 4 combustion chambers firing:

445

Another video of the LM-12 launch, from roll-out to 2nd stage ignition, from @Space_Alioth: m.weibo.cn/detail/5243360…

3:15

446

As for similarly named LM-12A, there's no official confirmation still but there ARE quite a bit of domestic interest too.
Except it's the Chinese stock market watchers most actively speculating (when it's a non-publicly traded state enterprise launching!)

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

T-3 days of CZ-12A's maiden launch.
Render of Longxing-2 VTVL vehicle & CZ-12A. via bilibili / Lekword

447

They were actually planning to reuse it by the 1st half of 2026! It would at least be right on the heels of New Glenn if they pulled the landing off…

(I wonder if the more risk averse state enterprises would plan like this…)

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Walk through of the ZQ-3 landing site & debris field. They were prepare to reuse the stage in 6 months if a good recovery. Via 空天逐梦

448

Well I certainly would hope that any delays like these will be reflected in official sources ASAP... (namely the one NOTAM that I am basing the December 17 date on, in addition to vague "rumors")

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

According to the credible travel agency, The CZ-12A's launch date may be postponed.

449

...because I really have little spare time. Like, there's probably a *Vega-class* (just slightly smaller, larger than Firefly Alpha & Terran-1) rocket debuting in ~2 hours from now by a private company & all I base on are a set of 3 drop zones & "rumors".

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Since previous Hyperbola-1 launches never had identified drop zones within China borders, this ID must have been wrong! The zones’ locations make up a combo not seen before, which means…huh?

Yup, Galactic Energy’s Ceres-2 rocket is likely debuting on December 15 ~04:05 UTC.

450

And yes, I am still very much not certain this (these are BTW almost the full collection of few photos we have really seen of Ceres-2 integrated flight hardware from Galactic Energy) is really a Ceres-2 launch. The KZ-11 "incident" 2 days ago is still giving me PTSD!

                            451
                        
Ah...Huh? Sounds like the 2 Chinese rocket debuts of this week now probably both are delayed, this apparently Ceres-2 launch being scrubbed in the final minutes. Alas there's no way to really be sure until NOTAMs change...
(for LM-12A it apparently has rolled back to its HIF)

452

Finally get confirmation for the Long March 12A in that the fairing drop zone NOTAM for December 17 has been cancelled, so yeah it's delayed. Not sure about the Ceres-2, but I guess it really didn't flew.
So before their next launch attempts, be sure to:

453

Hmm, that aligns with some rumors that I saw elsewhere that this might be just a several days' delay. We shall see...

And also I heard interesting rumors of what caused Ceres-2 launch to scrub yesterday. Maybe I'll say about it later...

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

The CZ-12A is likely still on the pad. Pic 1 via v.douyin.com/sbCXc5C0z7Y/. Pic 2 via Sentinel-2 of 15 Dec

454

While eyes will be aroused for a selection of very small number of Chinese launches, these absolutely aren't the only ones happening. This one for example should occur in about an hour from now:

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

As for the 2 new Chinese launches? Well let's get the "boring" one out 1st. A NOTAM appeared days ago off Vietnam that shows a Long March 4 (B/C) rocket might be launching from Taiyuan SLC to SSO soon. This is now confirmed on December 16 ~03:15 UTC, for only the 6th time in '25.

455

"I thought I heard ye, for you are an old satellite series. Heck I didn't know you still have new satellites..."
So what turns up today is...the successful launch of a LM-4*B* at TSLC at 03:17 UTC w/ the 4th & newest member of China's high res, stereoscopic mapping sats, ZY-3-04.

                            456
                        
First launched in January 2012 w/ new satellites in 2016 & 2020, the Ziyuan-3 ("Resources-3") series are civilian Earth observation satellites tailored for cartography mapping, using 3 panchromatic cameras & a multispectral imager to acquire stereo images.

                        0:24

457

It was a cold day for launch - incidentally the first time this LM-2/4 series pad ("Launch Complex 9") at Taiyuan SLC was used since just 1/2 of a day shy of a full year! This really shows the trend of decreasing importance of the old hypergolic fuel Long March series of rockets.

458

A re-cap of the near term plans of the Long March 10(A) launch vehicles and the Mengzhou spacecraft for China's future human spaceflight plans to LEO and to the Moon:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

CZ-10A will test flight in 2026 with Mengzhou Space Ship (unmanned). Unclear it refers to the MaxQ abort test or an obital test. The configuration will be No 1 of the right. via

                            459
                        
One more camera view of the LM-4B/ZY-3-04 launch some hours ago - I really start to think we may be finally starting to see the old hypergolic fueled Long March rockets steadily & slowly receding into retirement, given newer Chinese rockets are used >60% of their launches in '25.

                        0:54

460

Not surprisingly the issue of LEO comsat constellation usage's very sensitive in China. Here's a news of Zhejiang Province MSA finding an intl. registered ship "illegally using foreign LEO comsat receivers in PRC waters" - evidently @Starlink.

@elonmusk

tidenews.com.cn/news.html?id=3…

461

For those losing their minds on Chinese rockets names, the LM-10B is apparently "just" a fairing-equipped LM-10A, China's next gen LEO crew launcher flying in '26. Using 1 core of the lunar-bound LM-10, the LM-10B provides Falcon 9-class lift capability.

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

According to China rocket. The 5m diameter reusable rocket will maiden launch in first half year of 2026. Likely the CZ-10B.

462

Laika Mice in 2025 huh

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

There are two mice in AZSPACE's DEAR-5 cargo spacecraft. They won't be back as the ship will stay in orbit. 👇 Video taken before launch.

463

That would be a really busy rate…except for that outlier SoCal aerospace company where their operational rocket series has launched 74, 64 and 27 times so far from its 3 pads in 2025 LOL.

Andrew Jones@AJ_FI

Hainan commercial spaceport aims to host 20-30 launches in 2026. A quick count shows 8 so far this year. news.cctv.com/2025/12/17/ART…

464

It's almost end of '25 & even @SpaceX's applying brakes to their launch schedule. But no, in China New Year is still 2 months away & they are having a literal new world of launches!
The mighty Long March 5 is up next @ Wenchang launching "something" big on December 20 ~12:30 UTC.

465

The LM-5 - still China's most powerful rocket to beyond LEO - has launched 3 big classified "thingys" in addition to flagship planetary missions & test comsats. This looks like another & this 10th LM-5 will go east, probably geostationary orbit bound for yet another "dark sat".

466

The Long March 5 rolled out to its launch pad at Wenchang on December 15. BTW people are expecting *another 2* launches out of there before 2025 is over...and God knows what the other Chinese launch sites still have for these 2 weeks!
m.weibo.cn/detail/5244254…

0:27

467

If that's true...this will be exactly 10 years & 1 day to the fateful day of Falcon 9 1st stage booster s/n B1019's landmark landing. What's better to mark that anniversary w/ "21st Century's other independent spaceflight nation" nailing it the 1st time?

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

May further delay to the 23 Dec. According to the travel agencies.

468

The TEL truck looks familiar...

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Footage of the CZ-12A's mobile TE rehearsal with the mock-up. The uploader says the rocket is vertical & ready. via v.douyin.com/SWPVdZBU3lc/

469

I said there may be 2 more launches after LM-5 tmr & before 2025 is out @ Wenchang alone - here's one for Christmas/Boxing Day! It's yet another Long March 8A heading out SE w/ yet more LEO comsats (very likely SatNet) on December 25 ~23:25 UTC, just after sunrise LT on the 26th.

470

The LM-8A in question rolling to its pad "Commercial LC-1" at Wenchang on December 15, in front of its predecessor's model (BTW the "stock" LM-8 should still have some more launches left): m.weibo.cn/detail/5244464…

471

Meanwhile in the Chinese reusable rockets front, it's heading towards a stunning contest w/ more players than even in the US trying in 2026 alone, promising jaw-opening progress to all of you.
There's LandSpace coming back for attempt #2, good turn-around!

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

According to the guy went to the Land Space's exhibition room. Land Space may plan the ZQ-3 Y2's launch at Apr 2026.

472

There's struggling but still standing iSpace, trying to get their methane powered Hyperbola-3 to fly - now they said they aims to launch it from Wenchang in the 1st half of 2026...AND plans for a booster barge landing/recovery on the 1st attempt!

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

iSpace‘s TE rehearsal on the Pad-2 at Wenchang commercial. The pad-2 finally met a new pal.

473

I forgot to post these new photos of their own "ASDS", named "Xing Ji Gui Hang" in Chinese - meaning "Interstellar Homing". An apt name since iSpace's company Chinese name actually means "Interstellar Glory"!

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Some new pics of the iSpace's recovery ship.

474

And then there's Space Pioneer's Tianlong-3, with the 1st flight vehicle already delivered to JSLC! The company however wanted to "prove its payload launch capability 1st" & thus won't attempt booster landing till 2nd half of 2026: baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=185185196…

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

TL-3 vertical at JSLC. Via mapp.api.weibo.cn/fx/ac3cab2121c…

475

Rumor is that Space Pioneer seems to have been handed a contract from the budding Chinese civilian, Shanghai-lead LEO comsat constellation SpaceSail/Qianfan/G60 w/ several TL-3 launches ASAP to deploy satellites, perhaps even including flight 1 (!!!).

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

Tianlong-3 was spotted vertical on the launch pad

476

These are just private LSPs. State enterprises are literally in another world - besides the upcoming LM-12A, there's the crew-rated LM-10A & its satellite launch variant LM-10B. I forgot to post this photo of its future landing barge named "Ling Hang Zhe":

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

The CZ-10A’s recovery ship “Navigator” / 领航者 is delivered. Via CALT

477

A reminder that this is not its final configuration, as "Net Recovery" for LM-10A/B boosters is still planned:

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

Ling Hang Zhe (Navigator)

478

OK, you might have heard of the LM-10 & 10A & now 10B & 12 & 12A, now here's the story of an even darker horse than the darkhorse LM-12A.

The LM-12B (drumrolls).

And it might fly AND land early next year.

                            479
                        
In a most confusing fight among state enterprise CASC's branches that seems even more confusing than WWII warplanes, besides Shanghai's SAST's LM-12A & Beijing's CALT's LM-10B, there's apparently a new 3rd off-shoot lead by some management @ SAST but w/ some shares by CALT etc.

480

This project is placed under this new subsidiary under CASC, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Commercial Launch Vehicle Group Co. Ltd. (CACL, distinct from old commercial rocket intl. seller @CGWIC & CALT-lead China Rocket managing Smart Dragon series - what a mess!)

                            481
                        
You might remember LM-10(/A/B) w/ upgrades of tried-n-true staged combustion RP-1/LOX engine YF-100 & the LM-12A going w/ methane gas generator cycle engines, buying the LY-70 from private company JZYJ for 1st stage & using state engine developer AALPT's YF-209 for 2nd stage...

482

...now the interesting thing is this LM-12B's following closer in general form to "The Launcher" from a certain SoCal now SoTex aerospace company, using AALPT's another commercialized engine the YF-102 (9 -102Rs on 1st stage, 1 -102V on 2nd), the "Chinese gov. stamped Merlin-1D".

483

Interestingly you may have heard of the YF-102 already, as 3 of its older variant powered Space Pioneer's Tianlong-2 in its stunning successful 1st launch in April 2023! The 102R/V will also be used by @cas_space’s Kinetica-2 very soon, though in a quite different configuration.

CAS Space@cas_space

CAS Space's second dedicated launch pad at JSLC has been completed. The new launch pad and facilities will be dedicated to Kinetica-2 launches. CAS Space now stands out as the only commercial player in the country with both solid- and liquid-propellant launch capabilities.

                            484
                        
And while previous rumors was for LM-12B to fly by late 2026, there has been faint murmurs that it might be much closer to launch and a *Q1 2026* (!!!) first launch of this 12 tonnes to LEO w/ booster recovery (15 tonnes to SSO expendable) kerosene/LOX launcher may be possible.

                            485
                        
So yeah, be prepared for the Chinese reusable rockets armada in 2026, which also likely includes Galactic Energy's Delta II class Pallas-1 (& maybe F9 class Pallas-2), OrienSpace's also F9 class Gravity-2 & the small Nebula-1 from Deep Blue Aerospace, if not even more... 😉

486

Another day, another Chinese launch in 5 hours from now, and this time it's their biggest rocket (for now).

There should be quite a few tourists watching this night launch so check back later for potential unofficial streams!

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

It's almost end of '25 & even @SpaceX's applying brakes to their launch schedule. But no, in China New Year is still 2 months away & they are having a literal new world of launches!
The mighty Long March 5 is up next @ Wenchang launching "something" big on December 20 ~12:30 UTC.

487

Well then I overslept...but there wasn't much to see anyway as the LM-5 lifted off on time and disappeared into low clouds almost immediately: m.weibo.cn/detail/5246031…

488

The rumble was still loud though: m.weibo.cn/detail/5246031…

1:20

489

And @TheSpaceDogeGuy did a live with commentary:
youtube.com/watch?v=d0Up72…

490

@TheSpaceDogeGuy This is a new world where China finally launches big "thingys" on their current flagship rocket as frequently as the Delta IV Heavy did.
This LM-5 successfully launched their newest so-classified-we-call-it-an-experimental-communication-satellite payload, TJSW-23, at 12:30 UTC.

491

It barely has beaten low clouds:

492

That long fairing is, BTW, 18.5 m long & 5.2 m in diameter - as big as Delta IV Heavy's standard long fairing and that still-yet-to-be-used customized long fairing on the Falcon Heavy:

493

Will the Chinese need something even bigger than the Long March 5 for classified payloads in the future? Who knows, but they should keep the LM-5 in use for a pretty long time for sure:

                            494
                        
Short liftoff clip:

                        0:14

495

Photos collection from @Space_Alioth: m.weibo.cn/detail/5246049…

496

@Space_Alioth Liftoff:

497

@Space_Alioth The rumble came gradually: m.weibo.cn/detail/5246051…

0:23

498

Another view from someone who actually have local contacts in China!

ThatSpaceDogeGuy@TheSpaceDogeGuy

Earlier today, Long March 5 successfully launched TJSW-23 from the Wenchang Satellite Launch Center

Launch Video brought to you by our team 👇

499

Well...I am looking at Chinese reports of this presentation. If the Long March 12 series plans from Shanghai's SAST is blowing up my and our minds, then it seems Beijing's CALT's plans are far more Galaxy Brain.jpg than I ever expected. More info later.

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Render of CZ-10B, plan to launch at first half year of 2026. Payload to 900km orbit 11t. Pic via weibo.com/2780279265/Qjy…

500

NEWS FLASH

OMG...the Chinese are really planning to celebrate SpaceX's 10th anniversary of landing a 1st stage booster w/...their own 1 day later???
Mark you calendars for TOMORROW December 23 ~02:00 UTC. New NOTAM just hit showing Long March 12A 1st launch happening finally!!!

501

If you want the source of this, here it is:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Possible NOTAM has published for the CZ-12A start from 1223 0154 UTC / 0954 BJT

502

Well I guess if there were any doubts as to this being for the LM-12A, I guess this really removes it:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

New pic of the CZ-12A. The slogan is "must succeed of the maiden launch"

503

I don't think we have ever seen this rocket in such resolution:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

via weibo.com/5616492130/Qjz…

504

These are the days where we get news of brand new reusable rockets via TikTok. Only in China!

kelvin@kelvin61942434

CZ-12A ready for maiden flight tomorrow.

Via Douyin

                            505
                        
Before that though, let's talk about 2 more Chinese launches just getting confirmed, both on Boxing Day (in UTC). I hope you warmed yourselves up for a bunch of Chinese launches before even 2025 closes!

506

One is @ Xichang on December 26 ~16:05 UTC & for once it's a confirmed payload! Hints came from its satellite manufacturer SAST, but its operator has already explicitly confirmed this is China's next geostationary weather satellite Fengyun-4C/FY-4C launching on an LM-3B.

507

This is the mission page from China's National Satellite Meteorological Center (it's not linked to their main site yet) - you can see this sat w/ a suite of terrestrial & space weather instruments is indeed planning a launch on the 26th. nsmc.org.cn/nsmc/cn/satell…

508

Details of the FY-4C satellite can be found at space.oscar.wmo.int/satellites/vie… & eoportal.org/satellite-miss…

509

Half a day before that, also on December 26 ~06:30 UTC, there's a Smart Dragon-3 launch out over the South China Sea from just offshore of W Guangdong towards SSO, from the now-frequently used DFHTG/"Oriental Spaceport" ship. Usually I would need to wait to see what's on top...

510

...but someone caught the Smart Dragon-3 rocket rolling to the port on China's E coast at the Haiyang Oriental Spaceport in Shandong, and it has a Pakistan flag on it. This means it's an Earth Observation satellite launch for Pakistan gov.'s SUPARCO! weibo.com/tv/show/1034:5…

0:18

511

This is confirmed by Pakistani news media, and that means SUPARCO's 4th Chinese-launched EO satellite within 2025 alone, previously launching on an LM-2D, a Kinetica-1 and a KZ-1A. It seems it's a replacement for the optical PRSS-1 launched in 2018. 24newshd.tv/26-Nov-2025/su…

512

Can the Chinese mark their determination into the turn to reusable rockets by landing a 1st stage booster barely 40 days after @blueorigin & 10 years+1 day to the day @SpaceX did it? One that even passed the golden seal of approval from a state enterprise?
Check back here soon!

513

@blueorigin @SpaceX THEY ARE GOING

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

T-30 min, propellant loading started around 1h ago

514

@blueorigin @SpaceX The Sun's up at Jiuquan SLC for what the Chinese are confident that it will be a historic rocketry day today: m.weibo.cn/detail/5246949…

515

@blueorigin @SpaceX Can this be the 4th ever rocket designed to reach orbit and with the 1st stage coming back on engine power? Can the Chinese send the sharpest words on the viability of reusable rockets once and for all to mark the 10th anniversary of @SpaceX nailing it?

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

T-1H of the CZ-12A's maiden launch & t stage landing attemp. via Douyin/Tommy

516

@blueorigin @SpaceX *drumrolls*

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Lift-off, according to travel agency

517

@blueorigin @SpaceX Pad cleared: m.weibo.cn/detail/5246956…

518

@blueorigin @SpaceX The launch: m.weibo.cn/detail/5246957…

1:04

519

@blueorigin @SpaceX Hmm, maybe next time then
But I would be interested to see how close they get:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

Stage Landing failed

520

@blueorigin @SpaceX Hmm did the 1st stage flipped over...
Similar outcome to New Glenn NG-1's 1st stage?

                            521
                        
@blueorigin @SpaceX First stage outcome:

                        0:15

522

@blueorigin @SpaceX Well there are reports that the 2nd stage (also brand new with a new methane rocket engine, this one en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YF-209) worked well and it has entered orbit. Waiting for official confirmation.

Brie 🛸🍿☭@BanhmiBrieoche

523

@blueorigin @SpaceX (to re-cap, this is the 1st stage engine, 7 of them: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longyun_(…)

524

@blueorigin @SpaceX Still waiting for official reports, but per rumors one of the 3 engines that was supposed to re-ignite during the re-entry burn didn't, & the stage came in faster than planned. Something that @SpaceX experienced several times w/ Falcon 9 & Starship SH...
m.weibo.cn/detail/5246965…

525

@blueorigin @SpaceX This video shows the whole first stage completely on fire while wheezing down towards ground, only managing to extinguish way down in the troposphere. I wonder if it ever tried the landing burn...
m.weibo.cn/detail/5246967…

2:27

526

@blueorigin @SpaceX Definitely not a bad outcome if the entry burn was abnormal - SpaceX had two similar case even well into their Block 5 era (B1048 in 2020, B1059 in 2021):

TheSpaceEngineer@mcrs987

CZ-12a landing attempt/RUD within ~2km of the LZ

527

@blueorigin @SpaceX Still waiting for official words for the launch (doesn't mean anything wrong w/ 2nd stage, I am sure this is because Chinese government institution is scratching heads on how to say about the booster landing part), but here's the launch from SpaceLens: m.weibo.cn/detail/5246975…

528

@blueorigin @SpaceX Another view of the liftoff: m.weibo.cn/detail/5246964…

0:26

529

@blueorigin @SpaceX Official statement is still pending.
Meanwhile here are some good photos of the LM-12A before launch: m.weibo.cn/detail/5246984… (photographer m.weibo.cn/u/7739260413)

530

@blueorigin @SpaceX State media Xinhua has an official statement finally out: "Long March 12A first flight test was basically successful" with 2nd stage confirmed in orbit and 1st stage failed to land. Liftoff was at 02:00 UTC as per estimations.
m.weibo.cn/detail/5246987…

531

All in all, not a bad day for the Chinese as they get another early Falcon 9-Neutron class rocket to orbit within a single month and coming fairly close to landing boosters twice. I think they WILL nail it in 2026, the bigger question is which Chinese player will do it.

532

While this launch didn't quite made the news that we all wanted to see (as with Zhuque-3 on December 3), this may still mark another milestone in the one-way process conversion to reusable orbital transportation, as another nation after the US fully embraces this technology.

533

Reusable launchers are here to stay, once and for all.
m.weibo.cn/detail/5246989… / m.weibo.cn/detail/5247030…

534

More photos of this previously poorly documented launcher are coming in: m.weibo.cn/detail/5247136…

535

It's interesting to see this methane/LOX powered rocket giving out Delta IV like fireballs...

536

An overview of this actually-make-shift-built launch site: m.weibo.cn/detail/5247166…

537

This new photo of booster coming back is indeed interesting w/ both ends on fire while coming back. I've been told the LM-12A booster actually has a return profile closer to Starship SH w/ combined entry-landing burns so it seems 2 engines were indeed on. m.weibo.cn/detail/5247087…

538

Maybe SAST will have to beef up thermal protection on both ends next time - after all what they did was essentially converting F9R-dev into a flight booster (not so strange given hopping to 100 km isn't too far from going orbital, ≈130 km max for S1!)

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

The CZ-12A launched today was originally the 100km hopper + newly built second stage. That's the reason why the color is different with the first & second stage. via SpaceLens

539

Is this conversion something for future large reusable rocket builders elsewhere to ponder with I wonder?🤔

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

540

So now we have:
* LM-12
* LM-12A (7x1)
* LM-12A (9x1)
* LM-12B (w/ 2 different rumored diameters)
* LM-10 & 10A
* LM-10B that's much more than just a cargo converted 10A
* LM-10C w/ rumors of various engine fits
......I'm close to giving up LMAO......

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

The CZ-12A also have a full version like the ZQ-3 , with 9 LY-70s of the first stage with 4.2 diameter body. The CZ-12B plan to launch within first half year of 2026. via SpaceLens

541

At least we know these 2 shares pad installation fittings with different fuel on a shared pad:

Ace of Razgriz@raz_liu

The TE towers at Wenchang & JSLC could support CZ-12 & 12A. via SpaceLens

542

I have the feeling the Chinese are finding tweaking orbital rocket designs as easy as tweaking warplane designs in the WWI-WWII days, contradictory to traditional wisdom from the Cold War, and so we are getting so many confusing rocket designs being built.

TheRathalos@TAbusnardo

CASC will keep Conjuring new bespoke rockets every few months until they finally land one on its first attempt

2028 and CASC will finally land the CZ-15F (no relation to the previous 6 variants of CZ-15) on its maiden launch

x.com/raz_liu/status…

543

SpaceLens has made a long video introducing the LM-12A - try watching it before I have time to type up the whole thing as tweets: bilibili.com/video/BV1hkBKB…

544

And here's their introduction of the ZQ-3 for comparison: bilibili.com/video/BV1CZ2xB…

545

OK so this initial version of LM-12A is also nowhere near the earlier reported capability, it's closer to an Antares when being used with booster recovery: 9 tonnes to 200 km LEO w/ booster expended & 6 tonnes w/ recovery (3 t to 500 km), w/ 5215 kN liftoff thrust & 437 t mass.

546

Actual miss distance was closer to 5 km. In hindsight this should have been expected of a booster that didn't have enough engines firing on the way down.

TheSpaceEngineer@mcrs987

Maxar image. 4.91KM southeast of the LZ, further than I had initially projected

                            547
                        
Looks like USSF @SpaceTrackOrg has found the LM-12A 2nd stage (2025-308A/67231) in a 203 x 241 km x 69.71° LEO.

548

Thinking 2 brand new Chinese launchers debuting this December is not enough? Well there apparently WILL be a 3rd one! After a scrub on launch day on December 15th, Galactic Energy's 1st Ceres-2 is back for launch on December 27 ~04:05 UTC per new NOTAMs.

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Since previous Hyperbola-1 launches never had identified drop zones within China borders, this ID must have been wrong! The zones’ locations make up a combo not seen before, which means…huh?

Yup, Galactic Energy’s Ceres-2 rocket is likely debuting on December 15 ~04:05 UTC.

549

Rumors circulating was the Ceres-2's 1st stage motor nozzle bumping on something while rotating to vertical on the 15th (see diagram below), but given it's back within 2 weeks it seems it wasn't seriously damaged.
We still don't know what's (6 sats apparently) flying on it though

550

...or maybe not yet. All these NOTAMs were cancelled just a day after they were released.

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Thinking 2 brand new Chinese launchers debuting this December is not enough? Well there apparently WILL be a 3rd one! After a scrub on launch day on December 15th, Galactic Energy's 1st Ceres-2 is back for launch on December 27 ~04:05 UTC per new NOTAMs.
x.com/Cosmic_Penguin…

551

And that wasn't the only delayed Chinese launch lately, this one has also just slipped to December 29 ~06:30 UTC - probably because the launch ship has only just arrived in southern China for final preparations of launch at Yangjiang port in W Guangdong.

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Half a day before that, also on December 26 ~06:30 UTC, there's a Smart Dragon-3 launch out over the South China Sea from just offshore of W Guangdong towards SSO, from the now-frequently used DFHTG/"Oriental Spaceport" ship. Usually I would need to wait to see what's on top...

552

There are lots of schedule changes, but still there's a long queue of Chinese launches that may happen before the year is out. This Long March 8A is scheduled to launch after sunrise at Wenchang in < 3 hours from now (fan live stream links coming soon):

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

I said there may be 2 more launches after LM-5 tmr & before 2025 is out @ Wenchang alone - here's one for Christmas/Boxing Day! It's yet another Long March 8A heading out SE w/ yet more LEO comsats (very likely SatNet) on December 25 ~23:25 UTC, just after sunrise LT on the 26th.

553

Long March 8A in pre-dawn darkness: weibo.com/l/wblive/p/sho…

554

Liquid oxygen venting from the top of the boosters and the 1st stage:

555

Into final minutes of countdown as the skies start to brighten up:

556

Liftoff occurred at ~23:26 UTC:

                            557
                        
Another view:

                        0:23

558

Lots of phones & selfie-sticks out there in the morning: m.weibo.cn/detail/5248007…

1:24

559

Photo from @Skyfeather16: m.weibo.cn/detail/5248007…

560

In the end, no surprises here as this LM-8A lifted off @ 23:26 UTC successfully deployed (probably 9 satellites) SatNet LEO Group 17 to orbit to close out a good 6-launches pace in its 1st 10 months of existence + 9 launches between the 2 new "Commercial" launch pads at Wenchang.

                            561
                        
Next year there might be 3 times as many launches between these 2 pads as in 2025...

                        0:29

562

All 10 launches that happened from the 2 "Commercial launch pads" operated by CASC-and-local-interests-owned HICAL since the site entered operations in November 2024:

563

SpaceLens brought their "big guns" out for this launch: m.weibo.cn/detail/5248064…

564

Up and away:

565

I don't think I can make these shots well if I am the one doing it, even if I get the same Nikon set-up as they do and after getting intensive photography training! m.weibo.cn/detail/5248058…

1:02

566

From close range:

天宇追箭者@Skyfeather16

冒着阴冷的蒙蒙细雨，第6发长征八号甲火箭飞向文昌清晨的天空 🚀

567

I hope you all get warmed up because there are at least 4 (perhaps >4) Chinese launches yet to happen before 2025 is out! Next one is just over an hour away as the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) previews their next GEO weather satellite, FY-4C:

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

One is @ Xichang on December 26 ~16:05 UTC & for once it's a confirmed payload! Hints came from its satellite manufacturer SAST, but its operator has already explicitly confirmed this is China's next geostationary weather satellite Fengyun-4C/FY-4C launching on an LM-3B.

568

And @TheSpaceDogeGuy's team is out trying to catch a Chinese launch again!
youtube.com/watch?v=Ym2Fkc…

569

@TheSpaceDogeGuy Haha they have people on site at Xichang too!

570

@TheSpaceDogeGuy Liftoff occurred at ~16:09 UTC:

571

@TheSpaceDogeGuy Launch success has been confirmed - actual T-0 was a bit earlier at 16:07 UTC.

Note the disappearance of the detailed red and blue markings on the LM-3B - something we have seen before on the LM-7A and now the veteran rocket now also takes the plain white livery!

                            572
                        
@TheSpaceDogeGuy This marks the 15th LM-3 series launch in 2025, a new record for the 40+ years old rocket series (30+ if you start with the LM-3A which is closer in design):

                        0:23

573

Blue and red colors trail the Long March 3B rocket into the midnight skies:

                            574
                        
I think it will be a long time before I get used to this plain white livery on the Long March 3 series...

                        0:24

575

2025 in Chinese spaceflight is still NOT over, but 1 launch that’s apparently going to miss out is this. Already delayed to the 29th, the launch ship DFHTG was found leaving its launch spot off coastal South China Sea heading East, a sign of long delays.

marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details…

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Half a day before that, also on December 26 ~06:30 UTC, there's a Smart Dragon-3 launch out over the South China Sea from just offshore of W Guangdong towards SSO, from the now-frequently used DFHTG/"Oriental Spaceport" ship. Usually I would need to wait to see what's on top...

576

Yet that's not the final note for the Chinese, there's One More Thing...no Two! I was wondering if there's another at Jiuquan SLC for '25, now NOTAMs just confirm a Long March 4 series (probably 4B but can be 4C) launch towards SSO on December 30 ~04:10 UTC w/, uh, something!

577

Then, as the Sun will about to rise over China for the final time in 2025 @ ~22:40 UTC on December 30, the 93rd '25 Chinese launch towards orbit will occur as residents of Wenchang gets another early sunrise w/ one Long March 7A rocket launches towards E, again w/ who knows what!

                            578
                        
The sheer no. of Chinese launches "rumored" to happen in the extreme last days of 2025 is just staggering. In addition to those launched/confirmed, plus 2 that got pulled at the very last moments (SD-3 I just mentioned, plus Galactic Energy's Ceres-2), there's apparently also:

                            579
                        
* a LM-6A @ TSLC (last reported NET 29th, STILL possible in '25 w/ NOTAMs sometimes coming very late there!)
* a Galactic Energy Ceres-1 sea launch off Shandong mentioned by company staff last week
* a LandSpace ZQ-2E (rocket already in JSLC & launch once rumored for the 31st!)

                            580
                        
* a CAS Space Kinetica-1 (apparently slipped into January, their previous tweets say it will be a dedicated launch)
* also from CAS Space, their 1st Kinetica-2 launch (they are at least close w/ hardware at JSLC)
* Space Pioneer's 1st Tianlong-3 (rocket also at JSLC, Soon (TM)?)

                            581
                        
With the Year Of The Horse still 1.5 months away (February 17) maybe we'll see a lot of Chinese Spaceflight surprises in January alone. I for one is losing the track & readers of my tweets are advised to find a few more info sources to avoid missing on more Galaxy Brain Moments.

582

Quite a few geostationary and interplanetary spacecraft have adopted this electric thrusters placement method AFAIK:

WLR2678🌌@WLR_2678

Fengyun-4C employs the "thruster on stick" design with electric propulsion for stationkeeping.

583

Press X 4 times to doubt 4 times…

CNSPACE@CNSpaceflight

👀 AZSPACE releases plans for 2026, including reusable suborbital space travel system, commercial space station, larger orbital spacecraft and re-entry capsule.

584

2025 is almost closing out, and while poor crews at @SpaceX might need to launch between 2025 and 2026 this year, the Chinese hasn't closed shop either w/ 2 last launches (finally can say this relatively safely) lining up, including this in the next hour:

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Yet that's not the final note for the Chinese, there's One More Thing...no Two! I was wondering if there's another at Jiuquan SLC for '25, now NOTAMs just confirm a Long March 4 series (probably 4B but can be 4C) launch towards SSO on December 30 ~04:10 UTC w/, uh, something!

585

Hmm a satellite series that I didn't expect to be featured today gets a new satellite in orbit! This LM-4B successfully launched at 04:12 UTC w/ the newest satellite named into the Chinese cartography-use series, Tianhui 7, the 16th "sky-drawing" satellite launched since 2010.

                            586
                        
This semi-classified sat launch makes it 7 total launches of the Long March 4 series in 2025, not too shabby for an old hypergolic-fueled rocket series with full replacements already available (though it took a very late surge with 3 December launches to reach that!)

                        0:32

                            587
                        
One more drone angle of a launch from Jiuquan SLC this year - there might be a lot more of these in 2026 from the NW China desert alone!

                        0:22

588

The Delta-II class Long March 4B & C have been really useful for China since a quarter of century ago (especially for polar-orbit satellites looking back at Earth), but w/ a huge assortment of new LVs from the government & private companies, will they still be around by 2030?

589

BTW the mission logo for this launch is a Chinese lantern, but I initially has mistaken it for a single-engine-equipped rocket upper stage LOL (which may well be the creators' intention!)

CAST is the manufacturer BTW: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xxE4LmMGY5yk…

590

Mmm...I can smell the hypergolic fuel from the nitrogen dioxide orange fumes...

591

Also I guess the falling thermal blanketing foam will forever lead to questions from those unfamiliar with Chinese rockets until they all retire...

592

It's that time of year to finally mark the full stop for a year in spaceflight, & 2025's (+) going to be done by the Chinese w/ a final sunrise launch on New Year's Eve at Wenchang w/ this Long March 7A going to somewhere w/ something ~1.5 hours from now:

Cosmic Penguin@Cosmic_Penguin

Then, as the Sun will about to rise over China for the final time in 2025 @ ~22:40 UTC on December 30, the 93rd '25 Chinese launch towards orbit will occur as residents of Wenchang gets another early sunrise w/ one Long March 7A rocket launches towards E, again w/ who knows what!

593

(+) Falcon 9/CSG-3 has apparently just slipped to January 2nd PST/3rd UTC, no surprises there given stormy SoCal weather lately:

594

Back to Wenchang, yet another all-white LM-7A was rolled out to the pad on December 28. All 13 previous launches of China's new main-stay beyond-LEO launcher have carried really classified payloads, I doubt it would be different here. m.weibo.cn/detail/5248927…

595

Note however that 2 recent launches of it with Yaogan-45 & 46 didn't go to a geosynchronous/geostationary orbit as we usually expect, but rather an interesting 7500 km high MEO w/ low 20° inclination - intriguing for "remote sensing" satellites. Can this be another such launch?

596

The Long March 7 MLP making its turn on the crawler-way: m.weibo.cn/detail/5248885…

1:20

597

And here's the live-stream: weibo.com/l/wblive/p/sho…

598

Expect this launch to cause a visible "jellyfish" across at least the S China Coast:

Mickey@mickeywzx

Twilight Jellyfish Alert!
Long March 7A (CZ-7A) launches from Wenchang LC-201 on 2025-12-30 (early morning local).
In the first minutes of ascent, the 1st stage may catch sunlight before separation—perfect for “space jellyfish”.
Best view: Hainan and parts of Guangdong/Guangxi.

599

~5 minutes to launch, the 323rd (+-1 or 2 depending on how you count) launch towards orbit of 2025:

600

That person lost their camera at like T-2 minutes (probably being told by someone else to "lose it" 🤐), whoops
Anyway liftoff confirmed and jellyfish confirmed seen: m.weibo.cn/detail/5249806…

0:02

601

Loud and clear: m.weibo.cn/detail/5249808…

0:34

What Is Happening In Chinese Spaceflight, Quarter 4 2025 Issue -...

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