Federal Open Mess Contradictions 3d uff...the worts FOMC i have...
Gianluca c1 bis@gianlucac1bis
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Sep 19, 2025
~1 min read
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1
Federal Open Mess Contradictions 3d
uff...the worts FOMC i have ever seen in terms of decisions, communications, consequences
my takes
1) JP said the cut was "risk management exercise". But in the Q&A he said that for what concerns future meetings
1/n
uff...the worts FOMC i have ever seen in terms of decisions, communications, consequences
my takes
1) JP said the cut was "risk management exercise". But in the Q&A he said that for what concerns future meetings
1/n
2
the Fed is going to remain "data dependent"
Well i am sorry: but one excludes the other. If you risk manage, you are not data dependent
2) in the SEP growth was hiked, Unemp was lowered, PCE was highered for 26, Fed Fund target lowered
UHHHH???? rate cut?
2/n
Well i am sorry: but one excludes the other. If you risk manage, you are not data dependent
2) in the SEP growth was hiked, Unemp was lowered, PCE was highered for 26, Fed Fund target lowered
UHHHH???? rate cut?
2/n
3
3) JP repeated that the Fed is squarely focused on achieving 2%
Squarely in 2028
4) Jp talked about risks about employment. Strange...as the SEP showed unemployment being lower than the June projections
5) i posted the dot plot yesterday. The red one is Miran.
3/n
Squarely in 2028
4) Jp talked about risks about employment. Strange...as the SEP showed unemployment being lower than the June projections
5) i posted the dot plot yesterday. The red one is Miran.
3/n
4
Miran coherently dissented. But there was aslo one guy who wanted no cuts at all (green). Why on earth he didnt dissented? Mistery
6) Waller and Bowman dismissed 50bp cuts. and 7 members of the FOMC sees no cuts this year.
4/n
6) Waller and Bowman dismissed 50bp cuts. and 7 members of the FOMC sees no cuts this year.
4/n
5
Considering how SEP have been revised (acceleration), i tend to sympathize with the 7. So which risk is the rest of FOMC managing by cutting rates?
Re-upping my 3d, i think the Fed should focus on unemployment rate
5/n
x.com/gianlucac1bis/…
Re-upping my 3d, i think the Fed should focus on unemployment rate
5/n
x.com/gianlucac1bis/…
6
as job creation is impaired by Trump policies.
The big risk which went completely forgotten yesterday is that tariff are only now being passed through prices as the pre-buying allowed some FIFO shelter.
6/n
The big risk which went completely forgotten yesterday is that tariff are only now being passed through prices as the pre-buying allowed some FIFO shelter.
6/n
7
But inventories have been worn out, and as per 2Q conf calls, every company started to hike prices in August
Expect more Inflation ahead
If the FOMC keeps goin so shitty, the Fed will not need Trump to lose credibility
7/7
@ThManfredi @Phastidio @degiorgiod @INArteCarloDoss
Expect more Inflation ahead
If the FOMC keeps goin so shitty, the Fed will not need Trump to lose credibility
7/7
@ThManfredi @Phastidio @degiorgiod @INArteCarloDoss