AI are we in a bubble?? yeah you bet 3d Let me do some reverse...
Gianluca c1 bis@gianlucac1bis
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Aug 29, 2025
~1 min read
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1
AI are we in a bubble?? yeah you bet 3d
Let me do some reverse engineering
Investment of hyperscalers only: lets say 400bn
What is the P&L to have an unlevered 15% IRR?? (and im prudent i just say 15%) so 60bn net
ok lets work it
1/n
Let me do some reverse engineering
Investment of hyperscalers only: lets say 400bn
What is the P&L to have an unlevered 15% IRR?? (and im prudent i just say 15%) so 60bn net
ok lets work it
1/n
2
out of generosity lets depreciate I=400 in 5 years (should be 3)
80bn a year in depreciation
I am assuming depreciation=capex to defend the perimeter
80bn depreciation
60bn net
Taxes at 25% 20bn circa
so net of financing, the P&L of that investment should be
2/n
80bn a year in depreciation
I am assuming depreciation=capex to defend the perimeter
80bn depreciation
60bn net
Taxes at 25% 20bn circa
so net of financing, the P&L of that investment should be
2/n
3
EBitda 180bn (80+60+20)
NB :in this theorethical case EBIT will not be burdened by financial interests so all equity financing what
Ebitda/sales? lets say AI is gonna be commoditised, so lets assume EBITDA at 30% (generous but ok)
3/n
NB :in this theorethical case EBIT will not be burdened by financial interests so all equity financing what
Ebitda/sales? lets say AI is gonna be commoditised, so lets assume EBITDA at 30% (generous but ok)
3/n
4
So revenues needed to support 400bn Investments under these metrics, and 15% unlevered IRR are
550bn circa a year
Google revenues in 2024: 350bn
Ciao, goodbye
4/4
@ThManfredi @INArteCarloDoss @Phastidio @gbponz @degiorgiod
550bn circa a year
Google revenues in 2024: 350bn
Ciao, goodbye
4/4
@ThManfredi @INArteCarloDoss @Phastidio @gbponz @degiorgiod
