Stop endlessly learning from losses 🧵 The "game of probability"...
Yumi🌸@samuraipips358
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May 06, 2025
~3 min read
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Stop endlessly learning from losses 🧵
The "game of probability" involves an attitude of accepting randomness, adopted by "those who have already completed their learning", in order to bring reproducibility to that learning.
🧵1/5
The "game of probability" involves an attitude of accepting randomness, adopted by "those who have already completed their learning", in order to bring reproducibility to that learning.
🧵1/5
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2/5
When I say, "Stop learning from losses," I invariably encounter the pushback, "Learning from losses is important."
This happens because you still perceive "loss = failure" and are trading for the sake of immediate wins and losses.
Traders employing probabilistic thinking do not trade for the sake of immediate wins and losses; rather, they act with consistency precisely because they know that profits will eventually outweigh losses in the aggregate sum of wins and losses that naturally arise from continuously repeating actions according to their rules.
In other words, it is precisely because they have "already determined the answer regarding those wins and losses" and fully accept them all that it becomes possible to consistently adhere to the rules.
Traders applying probabilistic thinking do not judge the quality of their trading based on immediate trade results; they always think in terms of a large sample size.
To them, a loss is not a failure; true failure means deviating from the rules and losing consistency.
In this sense, what truly needs to be learned from are the times you lack consistency yourself, or instances where inadequate preparation leads to a lack of confidence in your rules.
When I say, "Stop learning from losses," I invariably encounter the pushback, "Learning from losses is important."
This happens because you still perceive "loss = failure" and are trading for the sake of immediate wins and losses.
Traders employing probabilistic thinking do not trade for the sake of immediate wins and losses; rather, they act with consistency precisely because they know that profits will eventually outweigh losses in the aggregate sum of wins and losses that naturally arise from continuously repeating actions according to their rules.
In other words, it is precisely because they have "already determined the answer regarding those wins and losses" and fully accept them all that it becomes possible to consistently adhere to the rules.
Traders applying probabilistic thinking do not judge the quality of their trading based on immediate trade results; they always think in terms of a large sample size.
To them, a loss is not a failure; true failure means deviating from the rules and losing consistency.
In this sense, what truly needs to be learned from are the times you lack consistency yourself, or instances where inadequate preparation leads to a lack of confidence in your rules.
3
3/5
If you are trying to learn something from a single loss, you are not yet at the stage to practice probabilistic thinking.
Please, continue to learn thoroughly and engage in daily trial and error regarding how to construct consistent rules that have positive expectancy.
Probabilistic thinking involves an attitude of accepting a degree of randomness, adopted by "those who have completed their learning", in order to bring reproducibility to that learning.
In other words, for traders at this stage, an immediate, isolated loss is merely one outcome of randomness.
Overthinking a single outcome at this stage merely elevates the risk of losing consistency.
It is as pointless as pondering the reason for the outcome of a dice roll.
It is crucial to reflect only on instances where you did not adhere to your rules, and forget the rest.
When you sublimate the necessary learning into rules through thorough preparation and begin utilizing the law of large numbers to overcome randomness, you will likely understand the meaning of what I am saying.
If you are trying to learn something from a single loss, you are not yet at the stage to practice probabilistic thinking.
Please, continue to learn thoroughly and engage in daily trial and error regarding how to construct consistent rules that have positive expectancy.
Probabilistic thinking involves an attitude of accepting a degree of randomness, adopted by "those who have completed their learning", in order to bring reproducibility to that learning.
In other words, for traders at this stage, an immediate, isolated loss is merely one outcome of randomness.
Overthinking a single outcome at this stage merely elevates the risk of losing consistency.
It is as pointless as pondering the reason for the outcome of a dice roll.
It is crucial to reflect only on instances where you did not adhere to your rules, and forget the rest.
When you sublimate the necessary learning into rules through thorough preparation and begin utilizing the law of large numbers to overcome randomness, you will likely understand the meaning of what I am saying.
4
4/5
Consider this carefully.
"Utilizing probability" is predicated on accepting all individual outcomes, including those unfavorable to you.
While the win rate is not the only crucial factor in trading, using it as a simple example, a 45% win rate necessitates tolerating the remaining 55% of losses.
It is essential to have prepared in advance to operate under the assumption that profits will remain over the long term by repeating the same trades, based on the balance between win rate and risk-reward, and it is critically important that these rules possess positive expectancy.
In this case, the sample size you are considering must be much larger.
Consider this carefully.
"Utilizing probability" is predicated on accepting all individual outcomes, including those unfavorable to you.
While the win rate is not the only crucial factor in trading, using it as a simple example, a 45% win rate necessitates tolerating the remaining 55% of losses.
It is essential to have prepared in advance to operate under the assumption that profits will remain over the long term by repeating the same trades, based on the balance between win rate and risk-reward, and it is critically important that these rules possess positive expectancy.
In this case, the sample size you are considering must be much larger.
5
5/5
Adhering strictly to the rules is the trader's responsibility; relinquishing responsibility for individual trade outcomes is not laziness.
Rather, it represents a mature state of accepting probability; this is extremely difficult and not a state one can reach "lazily".
If you can genuinely say from the heart, "There is nothing to learn from a single immediate loss," it is likely proof that you have already completed the necessary preparations to utilize probability, fully understand and accept its nature, and are concentrating on the consistency and process for which you are truly responsible.
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
E-book:payhip.com/b/H1ZBo
Paperback:a.co/d/fXmRhIa
【Trading Psychology】
E-book:payhip.com/b/SNnJC
Paperback:a.co/d/d0QJMxK
Hope these insights help your trading journey 😊
Adhering strictly to the rules is the trader's responsibility; relinquishing responsibility for individual trade outcomes is not laziness.
Rather, it represents a mature state of accepting probability; this is extremely difficult and not a state one can reach "lazily".
If you can genuinely say from the heart, "There is nothing to learn from a single immediate loss," it is likely proof that you have already completed the necessary preparations to utilize probability, fully understand and accept its nature, and are concentrating on the consistency and process for which you are truly responsible.
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
E-book:payhip.com/b/H1ZBo
Paperback:a.co/d/fXmRhIa
【Trading Psychology】
E-book:payhip.com/b/SNnJC
Paperback:a.co/d/d0QJMxK
Hope these insights help your trading journey 😊