Don't prioritize "intuition" 🧵 What you need are rules with a...
Yumi🌸@samuraipips358
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Apr 13, 2025
~3 min read
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1
Don't prioritize "intuition" 🧵
What you need are rules with a statistical edge, and the rules don't exist for you to win the single trade right in front of you.
↓ Thread 1/5
What you need are rules with a statistical edge, and the rules don't exist for you to win the single trade right in front of you.
↓ Thread 1/5
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2/5
Only traders backed by the sample size of extensive experience can utilize intuition.
Even for gaining that intuition, consistency is necessary, and haphazard "discretionary judgment" is simply a lack of consistency.
An excellent jazz player's improvisation, no matter how much they say they are "doing it by intuition," isn't random finger movements but is based on extensive experience.
Excellent discretionary traders are also based on the large sample size of extensive experience.
However, many "discretionary" traders are simply inconsistent traders who have never even continued the same consistent trades for "just" one year.
The "intuition" they use is mostly rooted not in the sample size of extensive experience, but in emotions like anxiety, fear, and greed.
Only traders backed by the sample size of extensive experience can utilize intuition.
Even for gaining that intuition, consistency is necessary, and haphazard "discretionary judgment" is simply a lack of consistency.
An excellent jazz player's improvisation, no matter how much they say they are "doing it by intuition," isn't random finger movements but is based on extensive experience.
Excellent discretionary traders are also based on the large sample size of extensive experience.
However, many "discretionary" traders are simply inconsistent traders who have never even continued the same consistent trades for "just" one year.
The "intuition" they use is mostly rooted not in the sample size of extensive experience, but in emotions like anxiety, fear, and greed.
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3/5
Rules with a statistical edge are those that leave a profit over a large sample size after experiencing wins and losses according to those rules.
The rules do not exist for you to win the single trade right in front of you.
Therefore, you must always continue to follow the rules and continue to generate wins and losses according to those rules.
You must not act based on thoughts driven by greed or anxiety like, "It's not according to the rules yet, but I should trade now," "The rules say I must cut losses, but it looks like it might come back, so let's not," or "I lost last time, so let's wait and see and skip the trade this time."
Since the outcome of a single trade is strongly influenced by randomness, it's natural that you might sometimes think, "It was good to follow my intuition."
However, if you start doing that, you will constantly be swayed by randomness, and your focus will shift to short-term results.
The rules set for aiming at long-term results will gradually start to seem like "something unusable" as you begin to judge them as good or bad based on immediate wins and losses according to your shifting perspective.
Then, you will lose consistency.
Rules with a statistical edge are those that leave a profit over a large sample size after experiencing wins and losses according to those rules.
The rules do not exist for you to win the single trade right in front of you.
Therefore, you must always continue to follow the rules and continue to generate wins and losses according to those rules.
You must not act based on thoughts driven by greed or anxiety like, "It's not according to the rules yet, but I should trade now," "The rules say I must cut losses, but it looks like it might come back, so let's not," or "I lost last time, so let's wait and see and skip the trade this time."
Since the outcome of a single trade is strongly influenced by randomness, it's natural that you might sometimes think, "It was good to follow my intuition."
However, if you start doing that, you will constantly be swayed by randomness, and your focus will shift to short-term results.
The rules set for aiming at long-term results will gradually start to seem like "something unusable" as you begin to judge them as good or bad based on immediate wins and losses according to your shifting perspective.
Then, you will lose consistency.
4
4/5
It might feel contradictory, but consistency is necessary even to use "intuition."
This is because what we traders should aim for is long-term success, not winning the trade right in front of us.
In this world where short-term results are strongly influenced by randomness, utilizing probability is essential.
This means thinking in terms of a large sample size becomes essential.
What's important is to think in terms of a large sample size.
As long as this is at the core, you won't go in the wrong direction.
If you truly understand why you need to prioritize rules "from the perspective of a large sample size," you will likely stop prioritizing emotional "intuition" over the rules.
It might feel contradictory, but consistency is necessary even to use "intuition."
This is because what we traders should aim for is long-term success, not winning the trade right in front of us.
In this world where short-term results are strongly influenced by randomness, utilizing probability is essential.
This means thinking in terms of a large sample size becomes essential.
What's important is to think in terms of a large sample size.
As long as this is at the core, you won't go in the wrong direction.
If you truly understand why you need to prioritize rules "from the perspective of a large sample size," you will likely stop prioritizing emotional "intuition" over the rules.
5
5/5
I want you to think carefully about the meaning of "rules with a statistical edge."
This doesn't mean using the rules to "win" the trade right in front of you.
Unless you use them correctly for the correct purpose, even rules with an edge will not be effective.
Don't make a "special exception."
Don't think, "This time is different."
Don't mix "exceptions" into the sample size you are building.
Think with a long-term perspective.
Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, check out my books on trading.
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
E-book:payhip.com/b/H1ZBo
Paperback:a.co/d/fXmRhIa
【Trading Psychology】
E-book:payhip.com/b/SNnJC
Paperback:a.co/d/d0QJMxK
Hope these insights help your trading journey 😊
I want you to think carefully about the meaning of "rules with a statistical edge."
This doesn't mean using the rules to "win" the trade right in front of you.
Unless you use them correctly for the correct purpose, even rules with an edge will not be effective.
Don't make a "special exception."
Don't think, "This time is different."
Don't mix "exceptions" into the sample size you are building.
Think with a long-term perspective.
Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, check out my books on trading.
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
E-book:payhip.com/b/H1ZBo
Paperback:a.co/d/fXmRhIa
【Trading Psychology】
E-book:payhip.com/b/SNnJC
Paperback:a.co/d/d0QJMxK
Hope these insights help your trading journey 😊