The market is one and only, therefore be consistent🧵 Thinking...
Yumi🌸@samuraipips358
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Apr 12, 2025
~4 min read
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The market is one and only, therefore be consistent🧵
Thinking "Because the exact same chart as the past never appears twice, the same trade cannot be made" is wrong.
↓Thread 1/5
Thinking "Because the exact same chart as the past never appears twice, the same trade cannot be made" is wrong.
↓Thread 1/5
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2/5
I have heard the assertion "Because the exact same chart never appears twice, the same trade cannot be made", but this is a complete lack of understanding of trading.
Rather, it is the opposite; it is precisely because the exact same chart never appears twice that we utilize probability.
Trading is not about predicting the future of the market and guessing it correctly.
And, the idea that "the exact same chart never appears twice = the same trade cannot be made" is fundamentally wrong.
What is important is not searching for the exact same chart as the past, but "continuing to act according to the same rules".
Through this, a large number of trades based on those rules accumulates, and the Law of Large Numbers works on that accumulated sample size, causing probability to converge.
I have heard the assertion "Because the exact same chart never appears twice, the same trade cannot be made", but this is a complete lack of understanding of trading.
Rather, it is the opposite; it is precisely because the exact same chart never appears twice that we utilize probability.
Trading is not about predicting the future of the market and guessing it correctly.
And, the idea that "the exact same chart never appears twice = the same trade cannot be made" is fundamentally wrong.
What is important is not searching for the exact same chart as the past, but "continuing to act according to the same rules".
Through this, a large number of trades based on those rules accumulates, and the Law of Large Numbers works on that accumulated sample size, causing probability to converge.
3
3/5
By following the same rules, you end up trading mostly on similar charts as a result, but it is not a problem that they are not exactly the same.
This is because, while it may seem at first glance that we are trading the chart pattern itself, more accurately, we are trading "based on the reason that formed the chart pattern", and we are betting on the probabilistic edge of that reason.
For example, if you use a double bottom at a specific level for trading, with a rule like: price makes a low twice at a specific support line, the recent low does not fall below the previous low, and you enter when the price exceeds the recent high, then even if each double bottom is not strictly identical, consistency based on this rule is maintained.
And the essence of this rule is that you are consistently repeating trades based on the rationale that "an upward edge was created" in a specific timeframe, due to three reasons: the "fact that other traders twice rejected trading at prices below the support line level that many people are watching", and based on that, when the price exceeded the recent high, the "fact that this triggers the stop-loss buy orders of traders who were selling in anticipation of breaking below the support line" and the "fact that new buy orders came in confirming the support line was not broken", causing buy orders to outweigh sell orders.
In this case, because you are basing your trade on the fact that the support line was not broken, you will set your stop loss just below the support line, but since this series of rules and actions is performed without contradiction based on one rationale, you can always repeat consistent trades.
You are trying to make the Law of Large Numbers work "for this consistent reason or rationale existing in the background of the chart pattern".
Understand this.
In other words, people who assert that the same trade cannot be made twice because the same chart never appears are only understanding the superficial pattern; precisely because they do not understand the reason or rationale, they misunderstand that the same trade cannot be made twice since the exact same chart never appears twice – meaning, their understanding is merely shallow.
By following the same rules, you end up trading mostly on similar charts as a result, but it is not a problem that they are not exactly the same.
This is because, while it may seem at first glance that we are trading the chart pattern itself, more accurately, we are trading "based on the reason that formed the chart pattern", and we are betting on the probabilistic edge of that reason.
For example, if you use a double bottom at a specific level for trading, with a rule like: price makes a low twice at a specific support line, the recent low does not fall below the previous low, and you enter when the price exceeds the recent high, then even if each double bottom is not strictly identical, consistency based on this rule is maintained.
And the essence of this rule is that you are consistently repeating trades based on the rationale that "an upward edge was created" in a specific timeframe, due to three reasons: the "fact that other traders twice rejected trading at prices below the support line level that many people are watching", and based on that, when the price exceeded the recent high, the "fact that this triggers the stop-loss buy orders of traders who were selling in anticipation of breaking below the support line" and the "fact that new buy orders came in confirming the support line was not broken", causing buy orders to outweigh sell orders.
In this case, because you are basing your trade on the fact that the support line was not broken, you will set your stop loss just below the support line, but since this series of rules and actions is performed without contradiction based on one rationale, you can always repeat consistent trades.
You are trying to make the Law of Large Numbers work "for this consistent reason or rationale existing in the background of the chart pattern".
Understand this.
In other words, people who assert that the same trade cannot be made twice because the same chart never appears are only understanding the superficial pattern; precisely because they do not understand the reason or rationale, they misunderstand that the same trade cannot be made twice since the exact same chart never appears twice – meaning, their understanding is merely shallow.
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4/5
Continuing to repeat the same trade does not mean searching for the exact same chart screen, identical to the past.
It means repeating trades based on the same rules, and more accurately, it means consistently repeating trades "for the same reason or rationale" behind the chart pattern.
As a result of continuing to follow the same rules, you will repeatedly trade on similar charts, but rather than understanding this superficially, it is better to understand the reason or rationale – why you trade that chart, why an edge exists there.
If you can truly understand that, essentially, you are continuously taking risks and betting on that reason or rationale, your consistency will likely become stronger.
Continuing to repeat the same trade does not mean searching for the exact same chart screen, identical to the past.
It means repeating trades based on the same rules, and more accurately, it means consistently repeating trades "for the same reason or rationale" behind the chart pattern.
As a result of continuing to follow the same rules, you will repeatedly trade on similar charts, but rather than understanding this superficially, it is better to understand the reason or rationale – why you trade that chart, why an edge exists there.
If you can truly understand that, essentially, you are continuously taking risks and betting on that reason or rationale, your consistency will likely become stronger.
5
5/5
This theme is a very subtle issue, and although I tried to write it in as much detail as possible, it might not get across to those who don't get it.
However, since it is also an important theme, I hope it helps those who need this now.
Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, check out my books on trading.
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
E-book:payhip.com/b/H1ZBo
Paperback:a.co/d/fXmRhIa
【Trading Psychology】
E-book:payhip.com/b/SNnJC
Paperback:a.co/d/d0QJMxK
Hope these insights help your trading journey 😊
This theme is a very subtle issue, and although I tried to write it in as much detail as possible, it might not get across to those who don't get it.
However, since it is also an important theme, I hope it helps those who need this now.
Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, check out my books on trading.
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
E-book:payhip.com/b/H1ZBo
Paperback:a.co/d/fXmRhIa
【Trading Psychology】
E-book:payhip.com/b/SNnJC
Paperback:a.co/d/d0QJMxK
Hope these insights help your trading journey 😊