“Win/Lose” → “Exit”🧵 “I had 3 wins and 2 losses today.” “I took a...
Yumi🌸@samuraipips358
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Apr 08, 2025
~4 min read
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1
“Win/Lose” → “Exit”🧵
“I had 3 wins and 2 losses today.” “I took a huge loss yesterday.”
If you sense the nuance that “you personally fought against the market and won or lost” from these expressions, your self-esteem is dangerously tied to winning and losing.
↓Thread 1/5
“I had 3 wins and 2 losses today.” “I took a huge loss yesterday.”
If you sense the nuance that “you personally fought against the market and won or lost” from these expressions, your self-esteem is dangerously tied to winning and losing.
↓Thread 1/5
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2/5
For traders who tie their self-esteem to the outcome of winning and losing, every time you use the words “win” or “lose,” you continually swing dramatically between feeling insulted or feeling superior, based on the result.
Since results are heavily influenced by randomness and beyond your control, these randomly assigned sensations of pleasure and humiliation create an addiction-like effect similar to gambling.
The more you trade, the stronger your obsession with winning and losing becomes, eventually making it absolutely impossible for you to succeed in trading.
In this state, you will never achieve consistency, and probability will no longer function effectively in relation to your strategy.
The more you value winning or losing and seek it strongly, the more inevitable actions and decisions based on this mindset become.
Repeating such behaviors traps you permanently in a cycle that ensures absolute failure.
Examples of these “actions and decisions strongly motivated by placing value on winning and losing” include:
・Delaying stop-losses to avoid losses,
・Exiting trades prematurely due to fear of losing unrealized gains,
・Frequently averaging down to increase your win rate at the cost of higher risk,
・Taking reckless position sizes or revenge trading in hopes of achieving a big turnaround,
…and so on.
These behaviors are essentially equivalent to repeatedly taking actions with extremely poor risk-reward ratios.
This generates a large sample size of highly disadvantageous methods, against which the law of large numbers inevitably works, making it impossible to succeed no matter what you do.
For traders who tie their self-esteem to the outcome of winning and losing, every time you use the words “win” or “lose,” you continually swing dramatically between feeling insulted or feeling superior, based on the result.
Since results are heavily influenced by randomness and beyond your control, these randomly assigned sensations of pleasure and humiliation create an addiction-like effect similar to gambling.
The more you trade, the stronger your obsession with winning and losing becomes, eventually making it absolutely impossible for you to succeed in trading.
In this state, you will never achieve consistency, and probability will no longer function effectively in relation to your strategy.
The more you value winning or losing and seek it strongly, the more inevitable actions and decisions based on this mindset become.
Repeating such behaviors traps you permanently in a cycle that ensures absolute failure.
Examples of these “actions and decisions strongly motivated by placing value on winning and losing” include:
・Delaying stop-losses to avoid losses,
・Exiting trades prematurely due to fear of losing unrealized gains,
・Frequently averaging down to increase your win rate at the cost of higher risk,
・Taking reckless position sizes or revenge trading in hopes of achieving a big turnaround,
…and so on.
These behaviors are essentially equivalent to repeatedly taking actions with extremely poor risk-reward ratios.
This generates a large sample size of highly disadvantageous methods, against which the law of large numbers inevitably works, making it impossible to succeed no matter what you do.
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3/5
In reality, the words “win” and “lose” are merely labels, completely unrelated to your self-esteem.
The reality is simple:
① You have just completed one trade according to your rules.
② The only fact that exists is whether the trade’s exit price is above or below the entry price.
③ This outcome is not your personal victory or defeat, but a result brought about by short-term randomness.
As long as you act according to your rules, the outcome is left to probability.
That probability does not reveal itself through one or a few trades, but only appears in the future as you continuously repeat rule-based actions.
The criterion for measuring your performance is not the immediate trade’s “result” but the “process.”
If you entered according to your rules and exited according to your rules, that is a perfect trade.
You cannot control the market, but you can control your actions.
If you have decided to enter and exit according to your rules and act accordingly, everything else is left to the market.
All you can control is “whether you follow your rules or not”; the result is irrelevant.
In reality, the words “win” and “lose” are merely labels, completely unrelated to your self-esteem.
The reality is simple:
① You have just completed one trade according to your rules.
② The only fact that exists is whether the trade’s exit price is above or below the entry price.
③ This outcome is not your personal victory or defeat, but a result brought about by short-term randomness.
As long as you act according to your rules, the outcome is left to probability.
That probability does not reveal itself through one or a few trades, but only appears in the future as you continuously repeat rule-based actions.
The criterion for measuring your performance is not the immediate trade’s “result” but the “process.”
If you entered according to your rules and exited according to your rules, that is a perfect trade.
You cannot control the market, but you can control your actions.
If you have decided to enter and exit according to your rules and act accordingly, everything else is left to the market.
All you can control is “whether you follow your rules or not”; the result is irrelevant.
4
4/5
The words “win” or “lose” can easily drag you back into a short-term mindset.
If you want to label the end of a trade, simply calling it a “rule-based exit” or just “exit” is enough.
By slightly changing your labeling in this way, the following changes occur:
・Reducing the risk of triggering unnecessary emotional reactions by fantasizing stories that link results to your self-esteem
・Your self-esteem becomes fulfilled by a different value criterion: “I followed my rules”
・Allowing you to focus clearly on the next trade without becoming overly excited or depressed by the results
Labeling as “win” or “lose” inherently carries the risk of blurring the fundamental premise required for understanding probability: “short-term results are random.”
The words “win” or “lose” can easily drag you back into a short-term mindset.
If you want to label the end of a trade, simply calling it a “rule-based exit” or just “exit” is enough.
By slightly changing your labeling in this way, the following changes occur:
・Reducing the risk of triggering unnecessary emotional reactions by fantasizing stories that link results to your self-esteem
・Your self-esteem becomes fulfilled by a different value criterion: “I followed my rules”
・Allowing you to focus clearly on the next trade without becoming overly excited or depressed by the results
Labeling as “win” or “lose” inherently carries the risk of blurring the fundamental premise required for understanding probability: “short-term results are random.”
5
5/5
Probability does not function within a single trade, but rather “through the law of large numbers.”
Individual labels such as “win” or “lose” have no meaning to the law of large numbers.
The only meaningful individual label is whether the trade was “rule-based” or not, which represents the correct criterion for the consistency you must pursue.
If labeling trades as “win” or “lose” unconsciously creates unnecessary value criteria that hinder the consistency required for probability to function, you must change that labeling.
Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, check out my books on trading.
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
E-book:payhip.com/b/H1ZBo
Paperback:a.co/d/fXmRhIa
【Trading Psychology】
E-book:payhip.com/b/SNnJC
Paperback:a.co/d/d0QJMxK
Hope these insights help your trading journey 😊
Probability does not function within a single trade, but rather “through the law of large numbers.”
Individual labels such as “win” or “lose” have no meaning to the law of large numbers.
The only meaningful individual label is whether the trade was “rule-based” or not, which represents the correct criterion for the consistency you must pursue.
If labeling trades as “win” or “lose” unconsciously creates unnecessary value criteria that hinder the consistency required for probability to function, you must change that labeling.
Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, check out my books on trading.
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
E-book:payhip.com/b/H1ZBo
Paperback:a.co/d/fXmRhIa
【Trading Psychology】
E-book:payhip.com/b/SNnJC
Paperback:a.co/d/d0QJMxK
Hope these insights help your trading journey 😊