To avoid "regret" in trading🧵 Let's trade without regrets. ↓Thread 1/5
Yumi🌸@samuraipips358
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Feb 25, 2025
~3 min read
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To avoid "regret" in trading🧵
Let's trade without regrets.
↓Thread 1/5
Let's trade without regrets.
↓Thread 1/5
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2/5
If you followed the rules, there is no need to regret the outcome.
However, many traders regret because they use the immediate result as feedback on whether the trade was good or not.
"I shouldn't have placed a stop-loss here"
"If I hadn't rushed to take profit, I could have made a big profit"
"If it was going to be a stop-loss, I shouldn't have traded ignoring the rules"
"If it was going to be profitable, I should have entered according to the rules"
And so on.
These are regrets based on short-term outcomes, and since short-term outcomes are strongly influenced by randomness, there is no point in regretting or obsessing over them.
Even if you think, "Okay, next time I'll enter according to the rules," those who regret based on short-term outcomes will, upon a stop-loss in the next trade, say, "Even following the rules, I lose!" and again judge based on short-term outcomes, losing consistency.
As long as you use short-term trade outcomes as feedback, you will "always regret."
If you followed the rules, there is no need to regret the outcome.
However, many traders regret because they use the immediate result as feedback on whether the trade was good or not.
"I shouldn't have placed a stop-loss here"
"If I hadn't rushed to take profit, I could have made a big profit"
"If it was going to be a stop-loss, I shouldn't have traded ignoring the rules"
"If it was going to be profitable, I should have entered according to the rules"
And so on.
These are regrets based on short-term outcomes, and since short-term outcomes are strongly influenced by randomness, there is no point in regretting or obsessing over them.
Even if you think, "Okay, next time I'll enter according to the rules," those who regret based on short-term outcomes will, upon a stop-loss in the next trade, say, "Even following the rules, I lose!" and again judge based on short-term outcomes, losing consistency.
As long as you use short-term trade outcomes as feedback, you will "always regret."
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3/5
You cannot do anything about short-term randomness.
As long as you keep focusing on the immediate outcome, you will never stop being tossed around.
Because the immediate outcome is absolutely unpredictable.
If you could predict it absolutely, your win rate would be 100%.
But that is impossible.
What you should focus on is not a small sample size but a large sample size.
You must judge the effectiveness of the strategy with a large sample size and emphasize whether you can take actions to build a large sample size "over a long period."
If you were able to act according to the rules of a strategy whose edge you confirmed through a large sample size, there is nothing to regret.
You cannot do anything about short-term randomness.
As long as you keep focusing on the immediate outcome, you will never stop being tossed around.
Because the immediate outcome is absolutely unpredictable.
If you could predict it absolutely, your win rate would be 100%.
But that is impossible.
What you should focus on is not a small sample size but a large sample size.
You must judge the effectiveness of the strategy with a large sample size and emphasize whether you can take actions to build a large sample size "over a long period."
If you were able to act according to the rules of a strategy whose edge you confirmed through a large sample size, there is nothing to regret.
4
4/5
From this perspective, the times you should truly regret are "using a strategy without thoroughly testing or practicing with a large sample size in advance" and "not acting according to the rules despite having tested thoroughly with a large sample size."
Using a strategy without testing with a large sample size and not knowing if there is an edge is the same as gambling.
Not following the rules despite having tested with a large sample size is the same as abandoning the use of probability.
What you should focus on is the large sample size and your own consistency.
From this perspective, the times you should truly regret are "using a strategy without thoroughly testing or practicing with a large sample size in advance" and "not acting according to the rules despite having tested thoroughly with a large sample size."
Using a strategy without testing with a large sample size and not knowing if there is an edge is the same as gambling.
Not following the rules despite having tested with a large sample size is the same as abandoning the use of probability.
What you should focus on is the large sample size and your own consistency.
5
5/5
The essence of this problem is that you do not yet truly understand what trading is.
Trading is a game of probability.
It is not a game of competing for immediate wins and losses, nor is it a game of predicting the future with 100% accuracy.
In a game of probability, edge and sample size are important.
And to achieve that, the role given to you is "consistent action."
Make sure to focus especially on whether you have rules with a probabilistic edge and whether you can consistently follow those rules.
Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, check out my books on trading.
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
E-book:payhip.com/b/H1ZBo
Paperback:a.co/d/fXmRhIa
【Trading Psychology】
E-book:payhip.com/b/SNnJC
Paperback:a.co/d/d0QJMxK
Hope these insights help your trading journey 😊
The essence of this problem is that you do not yet truly understand what trading is.
Trading is a game of probability.
It is not a game of competing for immediate wins and losses, nor is it a game of predicting the future with 100% accuracy.
In a game of probability, edge and sample size are important.
And to achieve that, the role given to you is "consistent action."
Make sure to focus especially on whether you have rules with a probabilistic edge and whether you can consistently follow those rules.
Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, check out my books on trading.
【THE PATH TO SUCCESS IN TRADING】
E-book:payhip.com/b/H1ZBo
Paperback:a.co/d/fXmRhIa
【Trading Psychology】
E-book:payhip.com/b/SNnJC
Paperback:a.co/d/d0QJMxK
Hope these insights help your trading journey 😊