🧵 Why I Think Kamala Wins 🥥🌴 (1) Biden left behind a solid legacy...
Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯@akarlin
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Jul 27, 2024
~2 min read
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🧵 Why I Think Kamala Wins 🥥🌴
(1) Biden left behind a solid legacy on economy, crime, and foreign policy.
(2) Framing: Policewoman vs. convicted felon.
(3) Trump is the old geezer now.
(4) Republicans alienate women with abortion and open misogyny.
Link to blog post 👇
(1) Biden left behind a solid legacy on economy, crime, and foreign policy.
(2) Framing: Policewoman vs. convicted felon.
(3) Trump is the old geezer now.
(4) Republicans alienate women with abortion and open misogyny.
Link to blog post 👇
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I explain my logic on why I think Kamala wins at my EHC Zone blog.
Read, like, subscribe, etc.: ehc.zone/p/why-i-think-…
I put my money where my mouth is.
I have a public $200 bet on Kamala and $5,000 in a Kamala-themed Solana shitcoin.
Read, like, subscribe, etc.: ehc.zone/p/why-i-think-…
I put my money where my mouth is.
I have a public $200 bet on Kamala and $5,000 in a Kamala-themed Solana shitcoin.
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Reason #1
Biden leaves a great economy (Nvidia = entire London Stock Exchange), falling crime rates, a Russia who's lash dash for empire was foiled, and even the retreat of Woke.
What does Trump have to show? The "J6 patriots" whom he was too cowardly to pardon in Jan 2021?
Biden leaves a great economy (Nvidia = entire London Stock Exchange), falling crime rates, a Russia who's lash dash for empire was foiled, and even the retreat of Woke.
What does Trump have to show? The "J6 patriots" whom he was too cowardly to pardon in Jan 2021?
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Reason #2
The Democratic elites successfully cooperated to persuade Biden to step down, a level of functionality unthinkable for a GOP in thrall to a personality cult.
It is now Trump who is the oldest Presidential candidate in US history.
The Democratic elites successfully cooperated to persuade Biden to step down, a level of functionality unthinkable for a GOP in thrall to a personality cult.
It is now Trump who is the oldest Presidential candidate in US history.
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Reason #3
Republicans believe opposing abortion rights, attacking Kamala for her childlessness (she has two adopted kids), and calling her a slut is a winning strategy when their party is headed by a guy who cheated on his pregnant wife with a porn star.
Bold strategy, Cotton.
Republicans believe opposing abortion rights, attacking Kamala for her childlessness (she has two adopted kids), and calling her a slut is a winning strategy when their party is headed by a guy who cheated on his pregnant wife with a porn star.
Bold strategy, Cotton.
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Reason #4
The Democrats scored a major own goal by catering to extremists such as Warren and pursuing an anti-tech, anti-crypto agenda that has won them the enmity of the "Tech Right".
However, the Tech Right is not Silicon Valley, and the problem remains surmountable.
The Democrats scored a major own goal by catering to extremists such as Warren and pursuing an anti-tech, anti-crypto agenda that has won them the enmity of the "Tech Right".
However, the Tech Right is not Silicon Valley, and the problem remains surmountable.
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Reason #5
Ultimate GOP meta-problem is its human capital crisis, which the alliance of convenience with the Tech Right can only partially remedy. Low IQ people are lower trust, and are less likely to turn up to vote as they assume elections will be decided without them anyway.
Ultimate GOP meta-problem is its human capital crisis, which the alliance of convenience with the Tech Right can only partially remedy. Low IQ people are lower trust, and are less likely to turn up to vote as they assume elections will be decided without them anyway.
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The second part of this problem reduces to the more general principle that when you ally with stupid and amoral people, they create sharp downside risk and consistently sabotage whatever victories you do eke out.
In Tolkien's words, "Oft evil will shall evil mar."
In Tolkien's words, "Oft evil will shall evil mar."
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Ofc politics is unpredictable; in the narrow sense, my claim only amounts to prediction markets (35%) understating Kamala's real odds (60%).
However, if I'm wrong, it will be the first time ever that I miscall a US Prez election since 2008.
Receipts: akarlin.com/predictions/#U…
However, if I'm wrong, it will be the first time ever that I miscall a US Prez election since 2008.
Receipts: akarlin.com/predictions/#U…
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Correction: On checking back, I predicted 2016 incorrectly. My apologies for that. akarlin.com/lets-maga-not-… (I did however see Trump performing much better than the blowout widely expected in the media).
My mind played an interesting trick on me. I was a fervent MAGA supporter in 2016, so I had somehow assumed I'd predicted a Trump victory.
My mind played an interesting trick on me. I was a fervent MAGA supporter in 2016, so I had somehow assumed I'd predicted a Trump victory.
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In 2020, I actually underestimated Biden's performance in the Electoral College (left: prediction; right: reality). akarlin.com/predictions-us…
And got the percentages scores to within 0.3% points for both candidates.
And got the percentages scores to within 0.3% points for both candidates.
