1/9 russian Occupiers have entered the Eastern Perimeter of Chasiv...
Artur Rehi@ArturRehi
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Apr 10, 2024
~2 min read
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1/9 russian Occupiers have entered the Eastern Perimeter of Chasiv Yar: Cause for Concern? Rapid Assessment by @joni_askola
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2/9 After over a year of occupying Bakhmut, russian forces advanced to Chasiv Yar, located less than 15 km away. This delay was due to the strategic necessity of capturing Avdiivka, a lengthy and costly endeavor that resulted in over 200 visually confirmed main battle tank losses
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3/9 Chasiv Yar's elevated position makes it a crucial defensive bastion. It functioned as a vital supply artery to Bakhmut during Ukraine's defensive efforts. Additionally, the city acts as a protective buffer for Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, which are more significant strongholds.
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4/9 Defending Chasiv Yar will buy valuable time for Ukraine to reinforce its new defensive lines. @clement_molin's great work illustrates Ukraine's rapid construction of fortifications over the past few months, underscoring the nation's proactive efforts to bolster its defenses.
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5/9 Capturing Chasiv Yar would enable russian forces to endanger the nearby railway hub, Kostyantynivka, and potentially pose a threat to larger and more strategically significant cities further north, such as Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.
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6/9 russia is expected to suffer significant troop and material losses during the city's capture, diminishing their future offensive capabilities and affording Ukraine additional time to fortify defensive positions.
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7/9 There's no need for panic. russia has yet to capture a single regional capital or city with special status in this war, highlighting a significant failure that cannot be overshadowed by tactical successes.
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8/9 It is probable that russia will launch a significant offensive this year, as they are aware that 2024 represents their final opportunity. Ukraine is poised to mobilize additional manpower, while both Western and Ukrainian defense production capabilities are rapidly expanding.
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9/9 If Ukraine successfully navigates through 2024 without significant territorial losses, and achieves substantial mobilization, training, and secures additional aid while fortifying new defensive lines, the country's position will be considerably more secure in 2025.
