Systematic destruction of Russian oil refineries by Ukraine is not...
Artur Rehi@ArturRehi
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Aug 29, 2025
~4 min read
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Systematic destruction of Russian oil refineries by Ukraine is not only a response to Russia’s aggression, but also a signal to the Trump administration: Ukraine cannot be bent. With Trump’s return to power, the U.S. has been seeking a peace deal with Russia, pressuring
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Ukraine in the process. One of the first steps was a restriction on the use of American weapons against Russian territory, a policy approved by the previous administration. While not a formal ban, every ATACMS strike has to be cleared with the Pentagon, which simply does not
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authorize strikes on Russian soil. Most likely, under threat of cutting aid, Trump also demanded Ukraine halt strikes on refineries earlier, so as not to upset a “peace-seeking” Putin. But Putin made clear he is not ready for peace, sabotaging every negotiation, and Ukraine
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resumed its attacks. Kyiv has learned not to rely on America’s shaky support. Beyond its growing fleet of long-range drones, Ukraine has developed its own cruise missile, the Flamingo. It’s worth noting that Ukraine has never had enough U.S. missiles to truly change the war.
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Since October 2023, the Pentagon supplied Ukraine with about 500 ATACMS, and Kyiv has only around 50 left. Reports say the U.S. and Ukraine signed a deal for 3,350 long-range ERAM missiles with ranges from 240 to 450 km, part of an $850 million package largely funded by
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Europe. But Ukraine will still need Pentagon approval to use them — likely meaning no strikes inside Russia. Now Ukraine reminds the world this is its war, fought for its life, freedom, and independence, and will continue on its own terms. The EU keeps buying Russian oil?
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Ukraine blows up pipelines. The U.S. bans strikes inside Russia with its weapons? Ukraine builds and launches its own. Trump thinks Zelensky has no cards left? Ukraine seizes the Kursk region. The West cannot close the skies over Ukraine? Operation Spiderweb leaves Russian
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bombers burning on their runways. Last weekend, Ukraine struck the Ust-Luga refinery, launched only in 2013. Ust-Luga is the largest port under construction on the Baltic Sea and the second biggest in Russia after Novorossiysk—just 25 km from the Estonian border. One drone
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even fell into Lake Peipus. In recent weeks alone, refineries in Syzran, Tuapse, and Novoshakhtinsk, as well as oil depots in Dzhankoy, have been hit. Long-range strikes deep in Russia are the most effective way to cripple its war machine, alongside front-line operations.
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They deprive the Russian army of fuel, supplies, and weapons—everything. The fuel shortage paralyzes the Russian economy, already built on fake numbers and propaganda. This is a deadly strike, and Ukraine has planned it carefully. Washington may set conditions, but Trump
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doesn’t realize he has almost no leverage over Zelensky. Aid pauses already happened several times, causing the fall of Avdiivka and Bakhmut, but not the collapse of the whole front. The U.S. could have helped defeat Russia long ago, but refuses to push that far, forfeiting
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its influence over Ukraine. For Russia, things will only get worse. The economic situation is far more dire than reported. Oil and gas companies, once the backbone of the economy and main source of revenue, are now begging the state for financial support to “contain
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gasoline prices.” They are being propped up mainly through the “fuel damper” and “reverse excise tax” schemes. The fuel damper compensates companies from the state budget for the gap between market fuel prices and the lower domestic ones. The reverse excise provides tax
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rebates depending on production volumes and refinery specifications. In 2024 alone, companies received 1.815 trillion rubles (about $22.5 billion) through the damper. The government had planned to cut these payouts in 2025, but that plan collapsed. Fuel prices are at record
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highs despite these subsidies—and worse than high prices is the outright absence of fuel. Beyond the Russian-occupied territories, shortages have hit the Far East and southern regions of Russia, where supply is most difficult. For example, in the Kuril district of the
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Sakhalin region, the free sale of AI-92 gasoline was limited to 10 liters per person starting August 20, and by August 25 sales to private individuals were completely suspended. It’s very difficult to calculate the real damage from these attacks. Beyond repair costs, there
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is also all the lost profit. Just the shutdown of the Ust-Luga refinery alone amounts to about $12 million per day of downtime. So whether Putin or Trump like it or not, Ukraine has played—and will continue to play—its own game, one in which Russia cannot win.
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