A mass homebuyer exodus is hitting Miami. Transactions have fallen...
Nick Gerli@nickgerli1
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Sep 22, 2026
~3 min read
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A mass homebuyer exodus is hitting Miami.
Transactions have fallen 47% from their pandemic peak.
From 3,600 in August 2021.
To only 1,900 in August 2026.
This represents the lowest sales activity Miami-Dade has seen since the end of the last housing crash.
In fact, sales today are about 25% below pre-pandemic norms.
The reason this is happening is because locals in Miami cannot afford the prices.
The typical mortgage payment in Miami-Dade, inclusive of taxes and insurance, is $5,000/month.
While the local median income is only $80,000.
The math simply doesn't make sense, and buyers are locked out as a result.
Zoom in to your ZIP to see sales and price data at reventure.app/map?geo=county…
Transactions have fallen 47% from their pandemic peak.
From 3,600 in August 2021.
To only 1,900 in August 2026.
This represents the lowest sales activity Miami-Dade has seen since the end of the last housing crash.
In fact, sales today are about 25% below pre-pandemic norms.
The reason this is happening is because locals in Miami cannot afford the prices.
The typical mortgage payment in Miami-Dade, inclusive of taxes and insurance, is $5,000/month.
While the local median income is only $80,000.
The math simply doesn't make sense, and buyers are locked out as a result.
Zoom in to your ZIP to see sales and price data at reventure.app/map?geo=county…
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1) This chart on sales represents a very different reality to Miami's housing market than you hear in the headlines.
With many local realtors and mortgage brokers pumping up the market as 'booming', especially in the luxury segment.
However, the reailty for most Miami buyers is they can't afford it.
And as a result, sales are at their lowest level on record.
With many local realtors and mortgage brokers pumping up the market as 'booming', especially in the luxury segment.
However, the reailty for most Miami buyers is they can't afford it.
And as a result, sales are at their lowest level on record.
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2) Despite this collapse in sales and demand, values have held reasonably well.
Over the last year, home values are flat, and since 2022 they are actually up 13.1% while the rest of Florida is down.
Over the last year, home values are flat, and since 2022 they are actually up 13.1% while the rest of Florida is down.
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3) One has to wonder how much longer that home value resilience will last.
With demand so low, sellers are running out of options (and time).
And those tax/insurance bills are stacking up.
With demand so low, sellers are running out of options (and time).
And those tax/insurance bills are stacking up.
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4) When accounting for tax, insurance, and mortgage, Miami has become ridiculously expensive.
Reventure is showing the typical monthly mortgage payment at $5,000.
which is now comparable to places like California.
Reventure is showing the typical monthly mortgage payment at $5,000.
which is now comparable to places like California.
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5) These sky-high costs are keeping buyers locked out, and actually causing people to leave Miami.
Domestic migration figures are heavily negative, and Bank of America is now reporting Miami as one of the worst areas in the U.S. for migration outflows.
Domestic migration figures are heavily negative, and Bank of America is now reporting Miami as one of the worst areas in the U.S. for migration outflows.
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6) In % terms, Miami had more net moveouts than Baltimore, New York, St. Louis and Seattle in the 2nd quarter of 2026.
The reason this is happening is due to the lack of affordability.
Miami is being priced like LA, when the incomes and jobs aren't even close to the same level.
Source: Bank of America internal migration data
The reason this is happening is due to the lack of affordability.
Miami is being priced like LA, when the incomes and jobs aren't even close to the same level.
Source: Bank of America internal migration data
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7) Those outbound migration statistics, coupled with 47% drop in home sales from 2021-2026, are shocking in combination.
They reflect a market that is deeply struggling, and losing people.
A narrative that few people in the Miami real estate world and economy are willing to accept.
They reflect a market that is deeply struggling, and losing people.
A narrative that few people in the Miami real estate world and economy are willing to accept.
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8) And values have actually started dropping in some pockets of Miami-Dade.
These areas in blue are regions where values are dropping, in and around downtown and Brickell.
However, values are still gaining 10% YoY near Coral Gables.
Very bifurcated market.
Check your ZIP for the update metrics: reventure.app/map?geo=zip&da…
These areas in blue are regions where values are dropping, in and around downtown and Brickell.
However, values are still gaining 10% YoY near Coral Gables.
Very bifurcated market.
Check your ZIP for the update metrics: reventure.app/map?geo=zip&da…
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9) Check the data for your area at reventure.app.
Home sales surplus/deficit is a key leading indicator of where your market is heading.
Pair that with our 1-year price forecast and get ahead of the market before buying or selling.
Home sales surplus/deficit is a key leading indicator of where your market is heading.
Pair that with our 1-year price forecast and get ahead of the market before buying or selling.
