Profound insights from General Oleh Ivashchenko, Chief of Ukraine's...
Giorgi Revishvili@revishvilig
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Sep 09, 2026
~3 min read
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Profound insights from General Oleh Ivashchenko, Chief of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR):
Russia is significantly weaker economically today than it was at the beginning of the full-scale war. 1/14
Russia is significantly weaker economically today than it was at the beginning of the full-scale war. 1/14
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The main problems facing the Russian economy are a shortage of labor, a growing federal budget deficit, and a deteriorating situation in the banking system. At the same time, Russia still has sufficient resources to wage war against Ukraine. 2/14
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We cannot rule out the possibility that these resources will be enough to sustain the war through 2027 and even 2028.
We expect dissatisfaction to continue growing [in Russia]. 3/14
We expect dissatisfaction to continue growing [in Russia]. 3/14
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It is difficult to say whether this will develop into a sufficiently strong protest movement. But already, more than 60% of people are opposed to the war. This is a consequence of the economic situation and the enemy’s heavy human losses. 4/14
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We can say that Russia’s contract-based recruitment model has largely exhausted itself. We see that regional budgets in Russia are no longer capable of continuing to finance enlistment bonuses for contract soldiers. 5/14
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The average daily Russian losses range from 1,200 to 1,400 people, and sometimes reach 1,500. This refers to those killed and severely wounded. 6/14
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Russia needs to simultaneously replace those who are being lost and further expand its force grouping if it wants to carry out its future military objectives. 7/14
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Overall, the Russian command is considering the possibility of additionally mobilizing around 600,000 people over 2026–2027—approximately 300,000 this year and another 300,000 next year. 8/14
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Without additional mobilization, Russia is currently largely capable of replacing its losses and maintaining the size of its force grouping in the Ukrainian theater. 9/14
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But if the Kremlin wants not merely to maintain the current scale of the war but to carry out further military objectives, including the complete occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, it will need additional manpower. 10/14
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Difficult Fall-Winter for Ukraine: We are seeing a significant increase in the share of jet-powered “Shaheds” being used. The number could be 120, 300, or even 500 per day. New loitering munitions are also emerging. 11/14
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They are already something of a hybrid between a jet-powered drone and a cruise missile. They can reach speeds of 500–600 kms per hour, and sometimes as much as 700 kms per hour, and can be launched from airborne or ground-based platforms. 12/14
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They are precision-guided munitions that use AI and machine vision. The loitering munitions most extensively used by the adversary, namely the Banderol and Dan-T, have warheads several times heavier, more than 130 kg, than those of Geran-type UAVs, which weigh 50–90 kg. 13/14
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In other words, the adversary is making these systems more autonomous and less dependent on external control. This makes them more difficult to counter. The adversary is adapting. And our task is to adapt faster. 14/14
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Read detailed analysis here: shorturl.at/8sjBl
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Please remember to subscribe and support my Substack - Russia Analyzed - for the latest insights and analysis on Russian foreign and security policy and the war against Ukraine. tinyurl.com/y6tjazyb
