Most people don't realize what just happened. Nvidia just posted...
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
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Aug 28, 2026
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Most people don't realize what just happened.
Nvidia just posted what we believe are the most impressive earnings in history, with market-wide implications.
This implies $670+ BILLION in revenue next year, up +2,390% from FY2023.
What's happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)
Nvidia just posted what we believe are the most impressive earnings in history, with market-wide implications.
This implies $670+ BILLION in revenue next year, up +2,390% from FY2023.
What's happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)
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In our view, Nvidia's, $NVDA, earnings are a clear confirmation that AI is not just growing.
The growth itself is rapidly accelerating.
And, this is the biggest sign yet that AI is not only valuable, but it is also useful.
We have never seen growth at this scale in history.
The growth itself is rapidly accelerating.
And, this is the biggest sign yet that AI is not only valuable, but it is also useful.
We have never seen growth at this scale in history.
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First, let's put this into perspective.
Nvidia, $NVDA, just guided $108 billion in revenue for next quarter alone.
This guidance assumes ZERO data center compute revenue from China.
This would mark +1,730% growth in 4 years, which is unprecedented for a company at this scale.
Nvidia, $NVDA, just guided $108 billion in revenue for next quarter alone.
This guidance assumes ZERO data center compute revenue from China.
This would mark +1,730% growth in 4 years, which is unprecedented for a company at this scale.
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But, it gets even crazier.
For the company's next fiscal year, Wall Street was expecting +44% growth, which is already historically high.
Instead, the company projected +70% growth which implies $673 BILLION in revenue.
This would mark +2,400% revenue growth since FY2022.
For the company's next fiscal year, Wall Street was expecting +44% growth, which is already historically high.
Instead, the company projected +70% growth which implies $673 BILLION in revenue.
This would mark +2,400% revenue growth since FY2022.
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In other words, Nvidia will be the 3rd largest company by revenue in the world.
Only Amazon and Walmart are larger, and these are retail names with much lower margins.
Nvidia's revenue will be almost ~$200 BILLION larger than Apple.
AI is much bigger than most people realize.
Only Amazon and Walmart are larger, and these are retail names with much lower margins.
Nvidia's revenue will be almost ~$200 BILLION larger than Apple.
AI is much bigger than most people realize.
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Even more incredible is revenue in China is only a fraction of what it could be.
Directly in Nvidia's 10-Q:
The company says they are "effectively foreclosed from competing in China’s data center market."
They even note that shipments of their H200 chip is heavily restricted.
Directly in Nvidia's 10-Q:
The company says they are "effectively foreclosed from competing in China’s data center market."
They even note that shipments of their H200 chip is heavily restricted.
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If China's AI market reopens to the US, this would mark transformative growth.
China's core artificial intelligence industry scale exceeded $170 billion in 2025.
By 2030, the country's AI market is set to exceed $1.5 trillion.
China is the world's second largest AI market.
China's core artificial intelligence industry scale exceeded $170 billion in 2025.
By 2030, the country's AI market is set to exceed $1.5 trillion.
China is the world's second largest AI market.
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We believe Nvidia's massive growth estimates will be beat.
The reality is that the Magnificent 7 companies alone are spending over $1 TRILLION in annual CapEx.
AI has prompted what we have called the biggest investment wave in modern history.
Nvidia just confirmed that.
The reality is that the Magnificent 7 companies alone are spending over $1 TRILLION in annual CapEx.
AI has prompted what we have called the biggest investment wave in modern history.
Nvidia just confirmed that.
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Meanwhile, US data center construction just hit a record $68 billion annualized.
This has now surpassed office construction by $25 billion, the widest gap on record.
By comparison, office construction exceeded data centers by $57 billion in 2022.
We see robust growth ahead.
This has now surpassed office construction by $25 billion, the widest gap on record.
By comparison, office construction exceeded data centers by $57 billion in 2022.
We see robust growth ahead.
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The reaction in the stock was very telling.
After an initial -4% drawdown, the stock is now up +8% today.
Dips in tech remain brief and capital is eager to enter these names.
Nvidia has now added +$400 billion in market cap today, on track for a potential new daily record.
After an initial -4% drawdown, the stock is now up +8% today.
Dips in tech remain brief and capital is eager to enter these names.
Nvidia has now added +$400 billion in market cap today, on track for a potential new daily record.
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And, as AI growth accelerates, the K-shaped economy is broadening.
Amid the record growth in tech stocks, PCE inflation in the US just hit 3.7%.
That's nearly DOUBLE the Fed's long-term target with oil prices back above $80/barrel.
Asset owners are the only winners.
Amid the record growth in tech stocks, PCE inflation in the US just hit 3.7%.
That's nearly DOUBLE the Fed's long-term target with oil prices back above $80/barrel.
Asset owners are the only winners.
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The combination of innovation and inflation have led to historic swings in the market.
Our research aims to anticipate these swings in advance.
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Our research aims to anticipate these swings in advance.
Want to access our premium research?
Subscribe at the link below to access our latest analysis and alerts:
thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe
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Lastly, we now have a market where almost all assets are moving higher.
When risky and safe haven assets rise simultaneously, you know disruption is here.
Asset owners are the only winners in this market.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
When risky and safe haven assets rise simultaneously, you know disruption is here.
Asset owners are the only winners in this market.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.