The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)

The bond market situation is crazy. While everyone focuses on AI, US borrowing rates just hit the highest level since June 2007. Credit card "serious delinquencies" are at the highest since 2010 and mortgage rates could near 8%. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread) ...

What just happened? In just 27 minutes, the Nasdaq 100 just fell -1,000 points and the S&P 500 erased -$1 TRILLION without any major headlines. The Nasdaq opened +1% higher then fell -3% between 9:30 AM and 9:57 AM ET. What does it all mean? Let us explain. (a thread) ...

What just happened? The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread)...

Bond markets are flashing red. Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%. This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread) ...

What is happening in crypto? Since October 10th, crypto markets are now down -50%, erasing $2.2 TRILLION worth of market cap. Bitcoin has officially erased ALL of its post-election rally, now down -10% since Trump's election. Why is it crashing? Let us explain. (a thread) ...

The Venezuela plot thickens: While Venezuela holds 303 BILLION barrels of oil reserves, much of this is HEAVY crude oil. Texas and Louisiana also *happen* to have 6 of the LARGEST HEAVY crude oil refineries in the world. What does this mean? Let us explain. (a thread) ...

This is absolutely insane: Venezuela currently has 303 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, which Trump says the US now controls. Oil prices are trading at ~$57/barrel, making Venezuela's total reserves worth $17.3 TRILLION. Even if the US sells this oil for HALF of the market rate, that's stil...

The last 12 hours have been absolutely insane: 1. 10:30 PM ET: Chinese officials arrive in Venezuela to meet with President Maduro 2. 1:15 AM ET: Unexpected airstrikes in Venezuela begin 3. 2:40 AM ET: President Trump confirms he has ordered strikes 4. 4:20 AM ET: President Trump says the US has...

BREAKING: China will be imposing export restrictions on silver beginning in 5 days, on January 1st. These restrictions will require special government licenses for silver exports. Shanghai silver prices are now up to $85/oz, a ~$5 premium to spot prices in the US. <a target="_blank" href="https:/...