Last night I stayed up late to write a mega-thread on the terrible...
Aidan Morrison@FootnotesGuy
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Oct 13, 2026
~2 min read
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1
Last night I stayed up late to write a mega-thread on the terrible mess that is NSW transmission planning.
But I forgot to add the chapter that turns farce into tragedy.
All was foretold.
By the Energy Security Board. But they were ignored. 1/
But I forgot to add the chapter that turns farce into tragedy.
All was foretold.
By the Energy Security Board. But they were ignored. 1/
Aidan Morrison@FootnotesGuy
When Jesus said "the first will be last and the last will be first" he wasn't giving instructions on how to build out transmission lines.
And yet... In NSW...
This is the story of Sydney Ring South.
Probably the most urgently needed transmission line. Approved to be... delayed??!
Until? Ummm... sometime... after 2033? We'll kick off the first stage of planning and approvals next year.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm firmly opposed to building excessive transmission to facilitate an enormous build-out of weather-dependent generation that has no hope of providing reliable electricity at anything the like the cost of centralised, thermal generation for baseload.
This isn't a giddyup.
This is exhibit A in an epic cluster....
As it happens, a large chunk of wind energy that is ALREADY BUILT in NSW is stuck in a pocket that often can't reach the Sydney load basin when needed most.
At times, we have gigawatts of electricity flowing in the WRONG DIRECTION, exporting electricity from NSW to Victoria, when their spot price is negative, and ours is very positive because we can't get enough power into Sydney, which drives up costs to consumers.
And, here's the kicker:
This project was specifically requested by Transgrid, @Transgrid_AU (the regulated NSW transmission company) to be made 'actionable' in the 2024 ISP framework, after the consultation draft was published without it, because... reasons... big rush.
The Market Operator, @AEMO_Energy, obliged.
And this year, when the process kicked off in the 2024 ISP was meant to deliver its first major regulatory milestone, Transgrid then asked the Regulator to push the deadline back almost a year.
Buckle up... 1/
And yet... In NSW...
This is the story of Sydney Ring South.
Probably the most urgently needed transmission line. Approved to be... delayed??!
Until? Ummm... sometime... after 2033? We'll kick off the first stage of planning and approvals next year.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm firmly opposed to building excessive transmission to facilitate an enormous build-out of weather-dependent generation that has no hope of providing reliable electricity at anything the like the cost of centralised, thermal generation for baseload.
This isn't a giddyup.
This is exhibit A in an epic cluster....
As it happens, a large chunk of wind energy that is ALREADY BUILT in NSW is stuck in a pocket that often can't reach the Sydney load basin when needed most.
At times, we have gigawatts of electricity flowing in the WRONG DIRECTION, exporting electricity from NSW to Victoria, when their spot price is negative, and ours is very positive because we can't get enough power into Sydney, which drives up costs to consumers.
And, here's the kicker:
This project was specifically requested by Transgrid, @Transgrid_AU (the regulated NSW transmission company) to be made 'actionable' in the 2024 ISP framework, after the consultation draft was published without it, because... reasons... big rush.
The Market Operator, @AEMO_Energy, obliged.
And this year, when the process kicked off in the 2024 ISP was meant to deliver its first major regulatory milestone, Transgrid then asked the Regulator to push the deadline back almost a year.
Buckle up... 1/
2
They wrote a major paper about these problems.
This was when the ESB was comprised just of the heads of AEMO, AER, and the AEMC. The CURRENT heads of these organisations.
They suggested systems that amounted to locational marginal pricing, or LMP. 2/
energy.gov.au/sites/default/…
This was when the ESB was comprised just of the heads of AEMO, AER, and the AEMC. The CURRENT heads of these organisations.
They suggested systems that amounted to locational marginal pricing, or LMP. 2/
energy.gov.au/sites/default/…
3
LMP, or some kind of price signal that exposes developers to the likely cost of congestion they might introduce onto the grid would an obvious way to avoid exactly what's happening. Being surprised by a pocket of generation springing up behind a weak link in the grid. 3/
4
So, what happened? The @SmartEnergyCncl led the charge to oppose any such move.
Here's an extract from their scathing, brazen submission to the ESB's consultation.
The renewables lobby hated the idea, so much they questioned the value of the ESB existing while they continued to persistently propose such a horrendous thing that might stifle new investment.
Turns out, of course, that the ESB really had a point. 4/
web.archive.org/web/2025040220…
Here's an extract from their scathing, brazen submission to the ESB's consultation.
The renewables lobby hated the idea, so much they questioned the value of the ESB existing while they continued to persistently propose such a horrendous thing that might stifle new investment.
Turns out, of course, that the ESB really had a point. 4/
web.archive.org/web/2025040220…
5
This is no secret of course. This is how @GilesParkinson in @renew_economy covered their success, when the government accepted the lobbying, and rejected the ESB's advice.
Crowing about the ESB's humiliation. 5/
reneweconomy.com.au/humiliated-esb…
Crowing about the ESB's humiliation. 5/
reneweconomy.com.au/humiliated-esb…
6
Here's the record of the current chair of the AER, Clare Savage warning that the grid will have to be "rebuilt twice" if congestion rules weren't managed.
And the renewables lobby's haughty response and derision.
Guess who was right? 6/
And the renewables lobby's haughty response and derision.
Guess who was right? 6/
7
The Smart Energy Council, got their way, with the ESB being basically disbanded. Or technically, 'refocussed' to become the Energy Advisory Panel, without any policy generation role.
Read the crowing in this piece. 7/
reneweconomy.com.au/after-coal-kee…
Read the crowing in this piece. 7/
reneweconomy.com.au/after-coal-kee…
8
It's been taken down now, but in archives you can find that the Smart Energy Council boasted that they:
"Oversaw the demise of the Energy Security Board" as one of their big 2023 achievements.
At least we know who to blame for the current mess. 8/
web.archive.org/web/2024120317…
"Oversaw the demise of the Energy Security Board" as one of their big 2023 achievements.
At least we know who to blame for the current mess. 8/
web.archive.org/web/2024120317…
9
In summary, the expert, the CURRENT experts who head our market bodies, saw this issue coming.
And they tried to warn the current governments to do something.
But they were shouted down by the renewables lobby.
And now we have the mess they foresaw. 9/9
And they tried to warn the current governments to do something.
But they were shouted down by the renewables lobby.
And now we have the mess they foresaw. 9/9