Gold is giving us a lesson in statistics. Today's −5.7% move is...
Alexander Stahel 🌻@BurggrabenH
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Oct 22, 2025
~1 min read
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Gold is giving us a lesson in statistics. Today's −5.7% move is rare; a 4.46-sigma move.
In a “normal” world, that’s once every 240,000 trading days. In reality −4.67% to −6.00% occurred 34 times since 1971, i.e. in 13,088 trading days (0.26% = 1 in 385 days).
Even bigger drawdowns happened 21 times since 1971. Message: Gold isn’t low-vol.
FOMO caused the latest leg up. Now, profit taking and weak hands got shaken out. Means? Statistically speaking, chances are that calmer days are ahead. Don't panic now.
In a “normal” world, that’s once every 240,000 trading days. In reality −4.67% to −6.00% occurred 34 times since 1971, i.e. in 13,088 trading days (0.26% = 1 in 385 days).
Even bigger drawdowns happened 21 times since 1971. Message: Gold isn’t low-vol.
FOMO caused the latest leg up. Now, profit taking and weak hands got shaken out. Means? Statistically speaking, chances are that calmer days are ahead. Don't panic now.