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My 3-year bear, base, and bull case for these 10 stocks assuming no...

@meeijer
Misunderstood Multibaggers@meeijer
20 views Jul 13, 2025 ~6 min read
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My 3-year bear, base, and bull case for these 10 stocks assuming no further dilution or buybacks are issued (A thread 🧵):

1) $HIMS | Hims&Hers

Base case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 30%
Expected revenue FY2025: $2.35B
Revenue FY2028: $5.16B
EBITDA margin FY2028: 22%
EBITDA FY2028: 1.135B
Multiple: 22
2028 Market cap: 24.98B
Share price: 24,980,000,000/222,000,000 = $112.56
Upside: 135%

Bear case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 25%
Expected revenue FY2025: $2.35B
Revenue FY2028: $4.58B
EBITDA margin FY2028: 20%
EBITDA FY2028: 916M
Multiple: 20
2028 Market cap: 18.32B
Share price: 18,320,000,000/222,000,000 = $82,52
Upside: 72%

Bull case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 35%
Expected revenue FY2025: $2.35B
Revenue FY2028: $5.78B
EBITDA margin FY2028: 24%
EBITDA FY2028: 1.39B
Multiple: 24
2028 Market cap: 33.30B
Share price: 33,300,000,000/222,000,000 = $150.02
Upside: 213%
2
2) $TMDX | Transmedics

Base case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 22%
Expected revenue FY2025: $575M (I believe this will be much higher based on flight data)
Revenue FY2028: $1.044B
EBITDA margin FY2028: 25%
EBITDA FY2028: 261M
Multiple: 25
2028 Market cap: 6.53B
Share price: 6,530,000,000/33,830,000 = $193.02

Upside: 72%

Bear case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 20%
Expected revenue FY2025: $575M (I believe this will be much higher based on flight data)
Revenue FY2028: $994M
EBITDA margin FY2028: 20%
EBITDA FY2028: 199M
Multiple: 22
2028 Market cap: 4.37B
Share price: 4,370,000,000/33,830,000 = $132.42
Upside: 18%

Bull case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 25%
Expected revenue FY2025: $575M (I believe this will be much higher based on flight data)
Revenue FY2028: $1.12B
EBITDA margin FY2028: 28%
EBITDA FY2028: 314M
Multiple: 28
2028 Market cap: 8.8B
Share price: 8,804,000,000/33,830,000 = $260.49
Upside: 132%
3
3) $GOOGL | Alphabet

Base case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 10%
Expected revenue FY2025: $388B
Revenue FY2028: $516B
Net margin FY2028: 30%
Net income FY2028: 155B
Multiple: 22
2028 Market cap: 3.408T
Share price: 3,408,000,000,000/12,135,000,000 = $280.88
Upside: 56%

Bear case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 8%
Expected revenue FY2025: $388B
Revenue FY2028: $489B
Net margin FY2028: 26%
Net income FY2028: 127B
Multiple: 19
2028 Market cap: 2.414T
Share price: 2,414,000,000,000/12,135,000,000 = $198.97
Upside: 10%

Bull case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 12%
Expected revenue FY2025: $388B
Revenue FY2028: $545B
Net margin FY2028: 32%
Net income FY2028: 174B
Multiple: 25
2028 Market cap: 4.36T
Share price: 4,360,000,000,000/12,135,000,000 = $359.37
Upside: 99%
4
4) $AMZN | Amazon

Base case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 10%
Expected revenue FY2025: $695B
Revenue FY2028: $925B
Net margin FY2028: 14%
Net income FY2028: 130B
Multiple: 23
2028 Market cap: 2.978T
Share price: 2,978,000,000,000/10,620,000,000 = $280.48
Upside: 25%

Bear case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 8%
Expected revenue FY2025: $695B
Revenue FY2028: $875B
Net margin FY2028: 13%
Net income FY2028: 114B
Multiple: 21
2028 Market cap: 2.39T
Share price: 2,390,000,000,000/10,620,000,000 = $225.05
Upside: 0%

Bull case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 12%
Expected revenue FY2025: $695B
Revenue FY2028: $976B
Net margin FY2028: 15%
Net income FY2028: 146B
Multiple: 25
2028 Market cap: 3.662T
Share price: 3,662,000,000,000/10,620,000,000 = $344.78
Upside: 53%
5
5) $CDLR | Cadeler

Base case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 35%
Expected revenue FY2025: $608M
Revenue FY2028: $1.5B
EBITDA margin FY2028: 50%
EBITDA FY2028: 750M
Multiple: 10
2028 Market cap: 7.5B
Share price: 7,500,000,000/87,719,000 = $85.50
Upside: 320%

Bear case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 30%
Expected revenue FY2025: $608M
Revenue FY2028: $1.34B
EBITDA margin FY2028: 40%
EBITDA FY2028: 536M
Multiple: 8
2028 Market cap: 4.288B
Share price: 4,288,000,000/87,719,000 = $48.88
Upside: 140%

Bull case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 40%
Expected revenue FY2025: $608M
Revenue FY2028: $1.668B
EBITDA margin FY2028: 55%
EBITDA FY2028: 918M
Multiple: 12
2028 Market cap: 11B
Share price: 11,000,000,000/87,719,000 = $125.50
Upside: 516%
6
6) $SOFI | Sofi tech

Base case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 16%
Expected adjusted net revenue FY2025: $3.27B
Adjusted net revenue FY2028: $5.1B
EBITDA margin FY2028: 30%
EBITDA FY2028: 1.53B
Multiple: 20
2028 Market cap: 30.6B
Share price: 30,600,000,000/1,110,000,000 = $27.57
Upside: 30%

Bear case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 13%
Expected adjusted net revenue FY2025: $3.27B
Adjusted net revenue FY2028: $4.72B
EBITDA margin FY2028: 27%
EBITDA FY2028: 1.27B
Multiple: 18
2028 Market cap: 22.93B
Share price: 22,930,000,000/1,110,000,000 = $20.65
Upside: -3%

Bull case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 19%
Expected adjusted net revenue FY2025: $3.27B
Adjusted net revenue FY2028: $5.51B
EBITDA margin FY2028: 33%
EBITDA FY2028: 1.82B
Multiple: 22
2028 Market cap: 30.6B
Share price: 40,000,000,000/1,110,000,000 = $36.04
Upside: 70%
7
7) $DLO | Dlocal

Base case:

TPV CAGR through 2028: 35%
Expected TPV FY2025: $36B
TPV FY2028: $88.6B
Take rate FY2028: 2.5%
Revenue FY2028: 2.21B
Net margin FY2028: 21%
Net income FY2028: 465M
Multiple: 20
2028 Market cap: 9.3B
Share price: 9,300,000,000/300,000,000 = $31.00
Upside: 182%

Bear case:

TPV CAGR through 2028: 30%
Expected TPV FY2025: $36B
TPV FY2028: $79.1B
Take rate FY2028: 2.25%
Revenue FY2028: 1.78B
Net margin FY2028: 18%
Net income FY2028: 320M
Multiple: 16
2028 Market cap: 5.13B
Share price: 5,130,000,000/300,000,000 = $17.08
Upside: 56%

Bull case:

TPV CAGR through 2028: 40%
Expected TPV FY2025: $36B
TPV FY2028: $98.8B
Take rate FY2028: 2.5%
Revenue FY2028: 2.47B
Net margin FY2028: 23%
Net income FY2028: 568M
Multiple: 23
2028 Market cap: 13.06B
Share price: 13,060,000,000/300,000,000 = $43.55
Upside: 297%
8
8) $OSCR | Oscar Health

Base case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 15%
Expected revenue FY2025: $11.25B
Revenue FY2028: $17.1B
Operating margin FY2028: 5%
Operating income FY2028: 855M
Multiple: 10
2028 Market cap: 8.55B
Share price: 8,550,000,000/250,000,000 = $34.20
Upside: 138%

Bear case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 13%
Expected revenue FY2025: $11.25B
Revenue FY2028: $16.23B
Operating margin FY2028: 4%
Operating income FY2028: 649M
Multiple: 8
2028 Market cap: 5.19B
Share price: 5,190,000,000/250,000,000 = $20.78
Upside: 45%

Bull case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 17%
Expected revenue FY2025: $11.25B
Revenue FY2028: $18.02B
Operating margin FY2028: 6%
Operating income FY2028: 1.08B
Multiple: 12
2028 Market cap: 12.97B
Share price: 12,970,000,000/250,000,000 = $51.89
Upside: 261%
9
9) $ASML | Asml

Base case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 10%
Expected revenue FY2025: €32.5B
Revenue FY2028: €43.26B
Net margin FY2028: 30%
Net income FY2028: €13B
Multiple: 30
2028 Market cap: €390B
Share price: 390,000,000,000/392,000,000 = €994.90
Upside: 45%

Bear case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 8%
Expected revenue FY2025: €32.5B
Revenue FY2028: €40.94B
Net margin FY2028: 26%
Net income FY2028: €10.64B
Multiple: 24
2028 Market cap: €255.47B
Share price: 255,470,000,000/392,000,000 = €651.71
Upside: -6%

Bull case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 12%
Expected revenue FY2025: €32.5B
Revenue FY2028: €45.66B
Net margin FY2028: 34%
Net income FY2028: €15.52B
Multiple: 32
2028 Market cap: €496.78B
Share price: 496,780,000,000/392,000,000 = €1267.30
Upside: 83%
10
10) $MELI | Mercado Libre

Base case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 23%
Expected revenue FY2025: $27.36B
Revenue FY2028: $50.91B
Net margin FY2028: 10%
Net income FY2028: $5.09B
Multiple: 30
2028 Market cap: $152.7B
Share price: 152,700,000,000/50,700,000 = $3011.83
Upside: 26%

Bear case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 19%
Expected revenue FY2025: $27.36B
Revenue FY2028: $47.28B
Net margin FY2028: 9%
Net income FY2028: $4.26B
Multiple: 25
2028 Market cap: $106.38B
Share price: 106,380,000,000/50,700,000 = $2098.14
Upside: -12%

Bull case:

Revenue CAGR through 2028: 26%
Expected revenue FY2025: $27.36B
Revenue FY2028: $54.73B
Net margin FY2028: 11%
Net income FY2028: $6.02B
Multiple: 35
2028 Market cap: $210.71B
Share price: 210,710,000,000/50,700,000 = $4156.05
Upside: 74%

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