NEW: We are short Nvidia $NVDA. We believe Nvidia has a significant...
Culper@CulperResearch
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Nov 09, 2026
~3 min read
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NEW: We are short Nvidia $NVDA. We believe Nvidia has a significant China problem. Please see our full report and disclosures now available on our website, link in bio.
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2) $NVDA claims its China business went to "zero" after April 2025 U.S. trade restrictions. We believe that in reality, over 20% of Nvidia's FY 2026 compute revenues remained driven by China via illegal GPU diversion and Southeast Asian intermediaries.
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3) $NVDA vouches for Megaspeed - its largest SEA chip buyer, under U.S. and Singapore investigation - as having no Chinese ownership and free of diversion concerns. We uncovered documents, however, that suggest Megaspeed was financed by Alibaba through a Singapore shell company.
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4) Megaspeed's balance sheet exploded from $33M at year-end 2023 to $3.0B at year-end 2024, driven almost entirely by $2.9B in "refundable deposits received" from an un-named source. The same $2.9B was forwarded to subsidiaries like Speedmatrix. $NVDA
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5) In June 2024 - two months prior to commencing operations - Speedmatrix pledged its assets as collateral to Apex Enterprise Solutions (Singapore).
Singapore filings reveal Apex's parent is Alibaba, and that Apex had made $4.1B in prepayments by March 31, 2025. $NVDA
Singapore filings reveal Apex's parent is Alibaba, and that Apex had made $4.1B in prepayments by March 31, 2025. $NVDA
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6) Trade records reveal Speedmatrix imported $4.6B in product from December 2024 through January 2026, $4B of which originated from Aivres Systems, Inc., an $NVDA "Elite OEM" compute partner that assembles high-end Nvidia-equipped servers.
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7) Aivres rebranded after parent Inspur was placed on the U.S. Entity List. Today, Aivres remains one-third Chinese-owned. Aivres also supplied to Shanghai's INF Tech, whose founder is an ex-Alibaba VP, and will reportedly supply ByteDance with $2.5B in Blackwells. $NVDA
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8) Just last month, Bain's Bridge Data Centres (BDC) reportedly dropped Megaspeed as a tenant. BDC declined to explain why. One source told us BDC had caught Megaspeed using the facility as "a place...to install their dummy servers" and "divert the hardware." $NVDA
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9) $NVDA CEO Huang has walked alongside Megaspeed at every step, and seems to have a close relationship with Megaspeed's Alice Huang. They partied together in June 2024 - same month as the Apex/Alibaba pledge, then dined together in May 2025 - just after U.S. trade restrictions.
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10) Per a current Megaspeed employee, "every single time" $NVDA's CEO visits their facility, Alibaba reps come too. One former $NVDA employee told us that internally, Nvidia employees speculated as to the seemingly special nature of the relationship with Jensen.
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11) In March 2026, the DoJ indicted three individuals tied to Supermicro (SMCI), including co-founder Wally Liaw, for allegedly smuggling $2.5B of $NVDA servers to China via "Company-1." Bloomberg has since reported "Company-1" is OBON Corp. We agree, but there's more...
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12) We believe OBON is affiliated with Megaspeed, and, per one former high-level $NVDA employee, "Megaspeed is just the tip of the iceberg." The $2.5B indictment reflects one corridor of what we believe is a widespread operation across multiple $NVDA partners and intermediaries.
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13) In October 2025, $NVDA partner YTL AI Cloud opened a $4.3B data center in Johor housing Blackwell servers. A current Megaspeed employee told us Megaspeed is "one of the most important customers" for YTL, but the parties conceal it, fearing regulatory repercussions.
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14) $NVDA "Elite OEM" Giga Computing shipped over $500M in H200 & Blackwell servers to Speedmatrix and Novagate Cloud - another apparent Megaspeed offshoot. Novagate's Malaysian subsidiary was created two days after April 2025 restrictions announced.
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15) Multiple experts told us $NVDA has had the means to detect diversion both via pre-sale indicators - e.g., recently-incorporated customers placing large orders, sales without warranties - and post-sale indicators - e.g., IP data, mismatched latency, servers "going dark."
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16) $NVDA analysts treat China as potential upside to FY 27 numbers. We think the opposite - as Beijing cracks down, $NVDA is now actually losing the business it claimed it lost a year ago. Mainland operators tell us "very few orders", "a huge blow." We see a $30B+ air gap ahead.
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17/17) We think this also helps explain $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang's recent behavior on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast, especially when confronted with questions surrounding China. We are short and believe shares are headed lower. See full report & disclosures at culperresearch.com
