Here's my current working Post-Labor Economics timeline: 2026-27:...
David Shapiro (L/0)@DaveShapi
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May 08, 2025
~1 min read
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Here's my current working Post-Labor Economics timeline:
2026-27: this is when AI becomes unignorable in all Fortune 500 companies. Adoption will be slower than you think because they are risk averse.
2028: This is when humanoid robots will probably hit product/market fit for the first time (so about 3 years behind chatbots, and a year or two behind agents)
2029-31: this is when AI becomes the next big thing in business. Like how cloud was taking off about ten years ago. During this time, robot production starts ramping. Knowledge work starts going the way of the dinosaurs. The writing is on the wall.
2033-35: this is when we're starting to see huge layoffs across many domains and it becomes a major political issue. AI and robots are now the defacto business policy, and it's just a matter of time before they reach saturation.
2038-40: by now, it's mostly said and done. Robot production will be in full swing, companies will have stopped hiring humans, and we'll either be in a Post-Labor paradigm or cyberpunk dystopia.
2026-27: this is when AI becomes unignorable in all Fortune 500 companies. Adoption will be slower than you think because they are risk averse.
2028: This is when humanoid robots will probably hit product/market fit for the first time (so about 3 years behind chatbots, and a year or two behind agents)
2029-31: this is when AI becomes the next big thing in business. Like how cloud was taking off about ten years ago. During this time, robot production starts ramping. Knowledge work starts going the way of the dinosaurs. The writing is on the wall.
2033-35: this is when we're starting to see huge layoffs across many domains and it becomes a major political issue. AI and robots are now the defacto business policy, and it's just a matter of time before they reach saturation.
2038-40: by now, it's mostly said and done. Robot production will be in full swing, companies will have stopped hiring humans, and we'll either be in a Post-Labor paradigm or cyberpunk dystopia.
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I will concede that it could happen significantly faster. However, business adoption cycles haven't budged even for the most compelling technologies.
The bottleneck will not be technical capability, but executive risk aversion. Shareholder pressure might change that.
The bottleneck will not be technical capability, but executive risk aversion. Shareholder pressure might change that.
