David Shapiro (L/0) (@DaveShapi)

I keep trying to tell people that the METR simple exponential is incorrect. I fed METR's raw data to ChatGPT Pro and asked it to determine which model (type of regression) best fit the data. I had it compare simple exponential, super exponential, logarithmic, and more. Overall, it tested 10 differ...

History goes through loops and cycles. The AGRICULTURE economy has been in decline for 2 centuries, and has bottomed out at a tiny fraction of what it used to employ. In the meantime, the SERVICE and MANUFACTURING economies have taken off. But, manufacturing is following the same fat as agricultu...

<b>@DaveShapi:</b> I finally got around to reviewing this paper and it's as bad as I thought it would be. 1. Zero data or evidence. Just "we guessed right in the past, so trust me bro" even though they provide no evidence that they guessed right in the past. So, that's their grounding. 2. They u...

When people say they want to keep their job, they are actually saying they want a way to meet several underlying psychological needs: ECONOMIC AGENCY: Freedom is tied to your wallet, so what you really want is money. Money can come from multiple sources. But you want a sense of control, autonomy, ...

Here's my current working Post-Labor Economics timeline: 2026-27: this is when AI becomes unignorable in all Fortune 500 companies. Adoption will be slower than you think because they are risk averse. 2028: This is when humanoid robots will probably hit product/market fit for the first time (so ...

Post-Labor Economics in one nutshell: Post-Labor Economics addresses the looming economic instability caused by automation eroding wage-based aggregate demand, offering a market-compatible alternative to potentially distortive solutions like large-scale UBI. PLE proposes systematically shifting hou...

Guys I have bad news. Extraordinarily bad news. We have 30 to 50 years before we get to full Post-Labor Economics. The bottleneck isn't intelligence, or even robotics. It's economic scale. We ran all the numbers, and ran them again. The primary question: "how long does it take to build a...

How long until CUA (computer using agents) cause white collar workers to lose their jobs? Let's do the math! First, we have to define the scope of vulnerable workers, what I call "KVM jobs" - work that can be done entirely with a keyboard, video, and mouse (and maybe a webcam or headset). These j...

When a top researcher at OpenAI drops a tweet like this, you better believe it's worth unpacking. Jason's got the inside track on what's cooking in one of the world's premier AI labs, and he's telling us something fascinating here in pure nerd speak. Let's break this down for everyone who doesn't s...