Washington’s threat to walk away from talks on Russia/Ukraine...
Sam Greene@samagreene
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Apr 21, 2025
~1 min read
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Washington’s threat to walk away from talks on Russia/Ukraine (typically) raises more questions than it answers.
Chief among them: Will Trump still pursue normalization with Russia even absent an end to the war?
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reuters.com/world/us-ready…
Chief among them: Will Trump still pursue normalization with Russia even absent an end to the war?
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reuters.com/world/us-ready…
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Most of the focus in the discussion out there now is whether the US will maintain intelligence support for Ukraine and possibly restart arms deliveries. Sanctions are also a hot-button question. But those are secondary to the normalization question.
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It has been clear for a couple of months now that Trump was pursuing “peace” as a means to normalize relations with Russia, rather than normalization as a route to peace. As a result, walking away from peace doesn’t inherently imply walking away from normalization.
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If the White House remains committed to the normalization agenda, we can expect sanctions rollback, reduced support for Kyiv, and distancing from European powers that continue to support Ukraine.
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This question, though, isn’t entirely up to Trump. If Putin makes it clear that he won’t normalize with the US without a deal on Ukraine, things could get sticky.
And Putin *will* pursue a deal if he thinks it will fatally undermine Europe’s ability to support Ukraine.
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And Putin *will* pursue a deal if he thinks it will fatally undermine Europe’s ability to support Ukraine.
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Europe, then, needs to do more than find ways to keep supporting Ukraine in the absence of (or against resistance from) the US. Europe may want to find ways to impose its own costs on Washington for walking away.
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