What we learned yesterday: nothing we didn’t know, if we were...
Sam Greene@samagreene
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Mar 04, 2025
~2 min read
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What we learned yesterday: nothing we didn’t know, if we were paying attention.
What we’ll learn this weekend: whether European leaders have been paying attention.
(A 🧵)
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What we’ll learn this weekend: whether European leaders have been paying attention.
(A 🧵)
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It was abundantly clear that the US administration would be guided by the following “principles” (I use the word hesitantly):
1️⃣🇺🇸 transactional interests trump all others
2️⃣ The velocity of exit from 🇺🇦 trumps the quality of exit
3️⃣ Normalization with🇷🇺 is a priority
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1️⃣🇺🇸 transactional interests trump all others
2️⃣ The velocity of exit from 🇺🇦 trumps the quality of exit
3️⃣ Normalization with🇷🇺 is a priority
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Following from these “principles” are 3 logical conclusions:
1️⃣ 🇺🇸 is unperturbed by the geo-strategic consequences of its exit from 🇺🇦
2️⃣ 🇺🇸 feels it has greater leverage over 🇺🇦 than 🇷🇺
3️⃣ the only route to a rapid exit is thus for 🇺🇦 to make maximum concessions
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1️⃣ 🇺🇸 is unperturbed by the geo-strategic consequences of its exit from 🇺🇦
2️⃣ 🇺🇸 feels it has greater leverage over 🇺🇦 than 🇷🇺
3️⃣ the only route to a rapid exit is thus for 🇺🇦 to make maximum concessions
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Again, none of this is new. Leaders in 🇺🇦, 🇬🇧 and🇪🇺have been hoping that they could construct an outcome that would align transatlantic interests, but they have always been hoping against hope.
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American analysts tend to underestimate the degree of anger over here in Europe. Seen from here, 🇺🇸 isn’t behaving like an angry ally — it’s behaving like an adversary, willing to undermine gov’ts in order to achieve zero-sum aims.
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But the idea that Europe depends on America for security is entrenched and will die hard. American power is real, and European leaders do not know the extent of Trump’s willingness to wield it. (Neither do US leaders, for that matter.)
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Leaders gathering in London this weekend will thus be unwilling to risk full confrontation with Washington if it can be avoided, even while seeking to implement a way forward that defends Ukraine and Europe itself.
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The problem is, 🇪🇺+🇬🇧 do not know how 🇺🇸 will respond to attempts to keep 🇺🇦 afloat, if those get in the way of 🇺🇸 normalization with 🇷🇺. As a result, 🇪🇺+🇬🇧 face trying to manage escalation on two fronts simultaneously.
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As ever since 2014, and more so since 2022, the cost of this escalation management will fall to 🇺🇦, unless 🇪🇺+🇬🇧 can impose a solution that captures the initiative from 🇺🇸.
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That doesn’t have to mean picking a fight with 🇺🇸, but it will require 🇪🇺+🇬🇧 to build their own format with 🇺🇦, which 🇺🇸 is free to join, rather than seeking seats at the 🇺🇸/🇷🇺 table.
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The question this weekend, then, is whether European leaders focus on a Europe-led process, or whether the discussion remains one of the imperative of working with Washington. None of this is a foregone conclusion.
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