FROM MAGA TO CHINA Here are four things MAGA is getting wrong, and...
Balaji@balajis
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Mar 11, 2025
~4 min read
1
FROM MAGA TO CHINA
Here are four things MAGA is getting wrong, and why it's handing over the world to China.
(1) First, MAGA correctly understands that America’s economic position is in decline but thinks this is due to economic competition itself, rather than lack of competitiveness.
(2) Second, MAGA also understands that the US has wasted trillions abroad in foreign wars, but thinks the problem is global leadership itself rather than poor leadership.
(3) Third, MAGA knows that their Blue American enemies have allies abroad, but has incorrectly overreacted to this by treating every non-Red-American as an enemy.
(4) Fourth, MAGA sees the billions of dollars flowing from the US to foreign recipients, but isn't grasping that the US can only print those dollars in the first place so long as it's the hub of a global empire.
When you put these together you can both understand MAGA's actions and understand why they will not lead to the intended result.
Basically: MAGA is hyperfocused on cutting off any apparent flow of funds from Red Americans to Blue Americans and non-Americans. And they only have ~500 days in power. So they're trying to quickly shut off imports, close down institutions, and exit all wars.
OK.
Except the reason the imports exist in the first place is because US products aren't competitive relative to Chinese products (or Fed printing). The reason those institutions exist is because the US set them up to run the world. And the reason those wars are happening is not because of American leadership per se, but because of the absence of good leadership.
If you shut all of that down at once — if you abandon global competition and global leadership — you shut down American Empire, and with it the ability to print money. And then everyone in that empire has a very bad time.
Here are four things MAGA is getting wrong, and why it's handing over the world to China.
(1) First, MAGA correctly understands that America’s economic position is in decline but thinks this is due to economic competition itself, rather than lack of competitiveness.
(2) Second, MAGA also understands that the US has wasted trillions abroad in foreign wars, but thinks the problem is global leadership itself rather than poor leadership.
(3) Third, MAGA knows that their Blue American enemies have allies abroad, but has incorrectly overreacted to this by treating every non-Red-American as an enemy.
(4) Fourth, MAGA sees the billions of dollars flowing from the US to foreign recipients, but isn't grasping that the US can only print those dollars in the first place so long as it's the hub of a global empire.
When you put these together you can both understand MAGA's actions and understand why they will not lead to the intended result.
Basically: MAGA is hyperfocused on cutting off any apparent flow of funds from Red Americans to Blue Americans and non-Americans. And they only have ~500 days in power. So they're trying to quickly shut off imports, close down institutions, and exit all wars.
OK.
Except the reason the imports exist in the first place is because US products aren't competitive relative to Chinese products (or Fed printing). The reason those institutions exist is because the US set them up to run the world. And the reason those wars are happening is not because of American leadership per se, but because of the absence of good leadership.
If you shut all of that down at once — if you abandon global competition and global leadership — you shut down American Empire, and with it the ability to print money. And then everyone in that empire has a very bad time.
2
With all that said, we should have a lot of sympathy for the turnaround attempt, because this is the Flight 93 Administration. They've bravely rushed the cockpit and taken control from the terrorists, but the ship of state might just be irreversibly vectored into the ground.
We are after all talking about decades of accumulated problems, from Social Security to lack of competitive industry. These problems may well be unsolvable. To mix metaphors, it's easy to Monday morning quarterback and extremely hard to quarterback.
Nevertheless, sometimes an outside perspective is helpful. So, let's go through the points above:
(1) The issue is lack of competitiveness, not competition itself. You'd know the US was successful if American cars were outcompeting Chinese cars in neutral third party markets. Tariffs won't do that, but maybe deregulation could. Otherwise you get this map, with China moving into Canada/Mexico/Western Europe now that they've been cut off by US tariffs:
(2) The issue is lack of leadership, not leadership itself. Yes, Biden blew up Nord Stream 2. But think about what that means — the US is in such control of Germany that it can blow up a key pipeline within the country with no consequence! So, obviously, you can't blame Germans for their domestic situation. Red America should simply assume control of the country and reform it rather than cutting it loose and having it fend for itself, with Blue-selected politicians in charge and China waiting in the wings. They should reprogram the Terminator. Basically, success doesn't look like cutting Germany loose. That will just result in a neutral or even hostile Germany down the line.
(3) The issue is the far left, not non-Red. It's extremely dumb for Red America to turn even Canadian conservatives like Pierre Poilievre into reluctant enemies. They just revived the left in Canada for no reason and now there is a hostile blue power on their border.
(4) The issue is mismanaged empire, not empire itself. Perhaps the deepest point is that MAGA really thinks American power comes from the 77M Red Americans and their muscle, as opposed to the 1B+ in the global American Empire. Even if you grant that they have a higher percentage of soldiers — the economic heft of Red America is far less than the 1B+, their political control over the other 200M+ Americans is fragile, and they're facing the 1.4B Chinese. It's just foolish to attack all allies and trade partners — that is how you lose trade wars, and wars.
CITATIONS
A few links you might find interesting, from previous posts, supporting various subparts of the thesis above.
[0]: Seymour Hersh on how the US blew up Nord Stream in Germany without consequence: seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-…
[1]: Rather than cutting the EU lose, reprogram the Terminator: x.com/balajis/status…
[2]: Ten Points on why tariffs are bad: x.com/balajis/status…
[3]: Ukraine may actually be the climactic battle of the Thucydides Trap. Even if it shouldn't have been started in the first place, a precipitous surrender there changes the world order: x.com/balajis/status…
[4]: There are only 77M MAGA, but 1B+ in the Golden Billion / American Empire: x.com/balajis/status…
[5]: The fundamental strategic constraint is the decline in G7 share of world GDP relative to BRICS: x.com/balajis/status…
[6]: Rise in Chinese free trade agreements: x.com/balajis/status…
[7]: Why deregulation is better than tariffs: x.com/balajis/status…
[8]: How the West lost Suez to the Houthis: x.com/balajis/status…
[9]: Why exiting institutions means losing them to China: x.com/balajis/status…
We are after all talking about decades of accumulated problems, from Social Security to lack of competitive industry. These problems may well be unsolvable. To mix metaphors, it's easy to Monday morning quarterback and extremely hard to quarterback.
Nevertheless, sometimes an outside perspective is helpful. So, let's go through the points above:
(1) The issue is lack of competitiveness, not competition itself. You'd know the US was successful if American cars were outcompeting Chinese cars in neutral third party markets. Tariffs won't do that, but maybe deregulation could. Otherwise you get this map, with China moving into Canada/Mexico/Western Europe now that they've been cut off by US tariffs:
(2) The issue is lack of leadership, not leadership itself. Yes, Biden blew up Nord Stream 2. But think about what that means — the US is in such control of Germany that it can blow up a key pipeline within the country with no consequence! So, obviously, you can't blame Germans for their domestic situation. Red America should simply assume control of the country and reform it rather than cutting it loose and having it fend for itself, with Blue-selected politicians in charge and China waiting in the wings. They should reprogram the Terminator. Basically, success doesn't look like cutting Germany loose. That will just result in a neutral or even hostile Germany down the line.
(3) The issue is the far left, not non-Red. It's extremely dumb for Red America to turn even Canadian conservatives like Pierre Poilievre into reluctant enemies. They just revived the left in Canada for no reason and now there is a hostile blue power on their border.
(4) The issue is mismanaged empire, not empire itself. Perhaps the deepest point is that MAGA really thinks American power comes from the 77M Red Americans and their muscle, as opposed to the 1B+ in the global American Empire. Even if you grant that they have a higher percentage of soldiers — the economic heft of Red America is far less than the 1B+, their political control over the other 200M+ Americans is fragile, and they're facing the 1.4B Chinese. It's just foolish to attack all allies and trade partners — that is how you lose trade wars, and wars.
CITATIONS
A few links you might find interesting, from previous posts, supporting various subparts of the thesis above.
[0]: Seymour Hersh on how the US blew up Nord Stream in Germany without consequence: seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-…
[1]: Rather than cutting the EU lose, reprogram the Terminator: x.com/balajis/status…
[2]: Ten Points on why tariffs are bad: x.com/balajis/status…
[3]: Ukraine may actually be the climactic battle of the Thucydides Trap. Even if it shouldn't have been started in the first place, a precipitous surrender there changes the world order: x.com/balajis/status…
[4]: There are only 77M MAGA, but 1B+ in the Golden Billion / American Empire: x.com/balajis/status…
[5]: The fundamental strategic constraint is the decline in G7 share of world GDP relative to BRICS: x.com/balajis/status…
[6]: Rise in Chinese free trade agreements: x.com/balajis/status…
[7]: Why deregulation is better than tariffs: x.com/balajis/status…
[8]: How the West lost Suez to the Houthis: x.com/balajis/status…
[9]: Why exiting institutions means losing them to China: x.com/balajis/status…