OK. Here's the issue. There is a strong argument that Ukraine is...

OK. Here's the issue.

There is a strong argument that Ukraine is THE climactic battle of the Thucydides Trap.

That is: the big war between the US and China is actually between their proxies Ukraine and Russia.

And this settlement — to this war — determines the next world order.

Because there won’t be a fight in Taiwan if NATO is defeated in Ukraine. Taiwan will just surrender to China because they know they won't get reliable Western military support.

And so will everyone else.

So, this may be the decisive moment when terms get negotiated with the China/Russia group for the next however many years.

That means that even if you think Ukraine was a disaster and Zelensky is a dummy, you don’t want NATO to be catastrophically defeated in Kiev like it was in Afghanistan.

That would be bad for Democrats, Republicans, Europeans, Japanese — just about everyone under the US security umbrella.

Instead you want the best possible outcome to this terrible war, under the circumstances.

Because the West may already have fallen into the Thucydides Trap. And if so, it should very carefully think about whether it can get out.

Fiona Hill had a good talk on this in 2023. She acknowledges the idea that it's a proxy war on both sides. And if the US side is defeated by the Chinese side, it's not obvious there will be another round.
lmc.icds.ee/lennart-meri-l…

In this century, history is running in reverse.
So Russia is now China's junior partner.
A very formidable junior partner, to be clear.
Like what Japan or Germany was to the US.
But wholly dependent on China.

x.com/uberboyo/statu…