TRUMP, PUTIN AND THE ART OF THE DEAL 3d Besides the "media circus"...

16 views Feb 22, 2025 ~2 min read

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TRUMP, PUTIN AND THE ART OF THE DEAL 3d

Besides the "media circus" , and the various statements of the parties involved, I have been thinking about what the USA is trying to do in Ukraine.

If i am not mistaken, The USA is trying to apply a Ricardian Logic to the issue.
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"Where there is trade, aint no war" (David Ricardo)

So 
a) by establishing USA business in Ukraine in exchange of protection 
b) by giving Putin the land he conquered, 

Potus hopes that the war will stop.

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Putin will not dare to attack an economic appendix of the USA.

I guess that is the line of thinking

Well unfortunately i am not sure it will work.

History is of some help
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In Europe we tried the same in the early 2000. 

Merkel and Berlusconi tried to integrate Putin in the trade system, by stipulating enormous take-or-pay on natgas with Gazprom. 

At peak Europe was importing roughly 450bn bcm from gazprom.

@Fab_True_Enough amend if  due

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How did it go?

It didnt work.

in 2008 Putin invaded Georgia
In 2017 Putin annexed Crimea
In 2022 Putin invaded Ukraine

The issue I see in this way of thinking is that a "transactional logic" works with people that share our values.

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"lets give everyone something to lose and they will stop"

Maybe it works with zelenski. 

It worked with China so far.

But i am not sure it works with Putin. 

And it didnt certainly  work when addressing radical islam.

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While I think the western world leader care about living standards and improving  economic conditions, Putin doesn't or it would have never started any war to begin with.

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I suspect Putin just wants to go down in history books as the guy who restored Russian greatness, and the Russian empire.

And since the start of the war he was crystal clear on Ukraine. 

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He doesn't want Ukraine to exist as an independent State as this is seen a threat to national security.

I am sure he also thinks that he will outlast Trump. 

So he will seeany deal as "temporary", and use any  time bought this way

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to restore military capabilities. And when ready  attack again.

He passed many red lines in the past, and no consequences. 

Actually he was rewarded.

10/n

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I just think that we might enter a non equilibrium, if not a bad equilibrium, if Putin is  rewarded too much instead of being beaten, and kept under permanent 
threat.

Europe must get up.

And face it, no matter what the USA does

We have wealth and capabilities
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this video is illuminating

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@ThManfredi @CrossWordsCW @MarastiMattia @jeuasommenulle @AndreaRoventini @degiorgiod @chiadegli

cc @gideonrachman @johnauthers @ianbremmer

Farrukh@implausibleblog

Former Chief of MI6, Sir Alex Younger speaking on Newsnight about Russia's invasion of Ukraine and how we as Europeans should respond

And all I can think about is why MI6 didn't protect us from Russian influence in the 2016 Brexit referendum

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Nb tweet #4 Correction 

150bn bcm
Not 
450bn bcm

TRUMP, PUTIN AND THE ART OF THE DEAL 3d Besides the "media circus"...

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