Ukrainian MFA stated that Belarusian armed forces are concentrating...

Ukrainian MFA stated that Belarusian armed forces are concentrating a significant number of personnel, weapons, and equipment near Ukraine's northern border under the guise of exercises

🧵It's still early to draw any definitive conclusions, but a few points should be considered:

2/ In February 2024, Frontelligence Insight and Rochan Consulting released an analysis of the Belarusian military's readiness, concluding that its combat units are typically manned at only 30-40% capacity, relying heavily on mobilization, with the rest filled during mobilization

3/ This suggests that if Belarus was seriously preparing for a major invasion, significant mobilization efforts would be seen. For fairness, this doesn’t rule out the possibility of an attack; it's more about the potential scale of attack if ever happens

4/ Russia has also increased its troop presence in the eastern part of Bryansk Oblast since spring, near the Homel Oblast area, where Belarusian troops are reportedly conducting "exercises." It definitely adds an uncomfortable dimension to the situation.

5/ Whether this is a provocation to draw Ukrainian forces from the frontlines, a threat from Putin via Lukashenko, or a response to rumored increased Ukrainian presence remains to be seen. However, it would be surprising if these limited forces could make any serious impact