When it comes to the AFU estimates of Russian losses, they're not...
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
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Jul 28, 2026
~1 min read
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When it comes to the AFU estimates of Russian losses, they're not far from reality, at least in 2026. Russia's own internal reporting indicates close to ~1,000 casualties per day on average, with roughly half or more being KIA (we classify most MIAs as KIA).
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2/ We think Ukraine's 2022-2023 reporting undermined the credibility of its figures. By 2026, however, its estimates are much closer to reality. Ukraine's reported RU personnel losses generally align with the combined Russian KIA, WIA, and MIA totals, usually within 10-20% margin
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3/ In some cases we've observed a 30-35% gap between Russian reporting and Ukraine's official figures. However, when averaged over year, the overall picture aligns more closely. It's not perfect, but for a belligerent party reporting enemy loss, it's quite accurate
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4/ Just to clarify the nature of our data: we don't have a complete Russian summary of losses for all of 2026. Instead, we have multiple Russian internal data points covering specific days, weeks, and months, which consistently point to the same average casualty rate