In the last 48 hours, #Ukraine conducted one of its longest-range...
Mick Ryan, AM@WarintheFuture
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Jul 29, 2024
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In the last 48 hours, #Ukraine conducted one of its longest-range strategic strikes yet. Today, an update on what is occurring with Ukraine’s multiple strike campaigns, their key functions and the challenges that Ukraine will face in strike operations against Russia for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. 1/18 🧵🇺🇦
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2/ The weekend strikes are claimed to have damaged a Russian Tu-22M3 long-range supersonic bomber at the Olenya airfield, south of Murmansk. This particular airfield lies about 1800 kilometres from Ukraine and is close to Russia’s border with northern Finland.
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3/ The Ukrainians have also recently struck key targets in Crimea. This included the significant damage to Russia’s last railway ferry in Crimea. This vessel has been used to transport military equipment to Russian forces in the occupied peninsula and thence to forces in southern Ukraine.
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4/ Beginning from a very limited capability at the beginning of the large-scale Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine has developed – and continues to evolve – its strike capability using a range of different systems.
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5/ This strike complex now includes the following:
-Indigenously produced aerial and maritime surveillance and strike drones.
-Foreign systems including the Storm Shadow, SCALP and ATACMs.
-Intelligence from multiple sources.
-Employment of special operations forces & resistance members in occupied territory, in Russia & beyond.
-Joint targeting doctrine from NATO.
-The ability to learn & adapt techniques, tactics & processes.
-Indigenously produced aerial and maritime surveillance and strike drones.
-Foreign systems including the Storm Shadow, SCALP and ATACMs.
-Intelligence from multiple sources.
-Employment of special operations forces & resistance members in occupied territory, in Russia & beyond.
-Joint targeting doctrine from NATO.
-The ability to learn & adapt techniques, tactics & processes.
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6/ From 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have demonstrated the ability to adopt and use very precise, long range strike systems against the Russians. This has influenced their strategy for the war. It has also impacted on Ukraine’s capacity to project an image of a capable nation that will not inevitably be defeated by Russia (which is Russia's key strategic message).
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7/ There are 4 crucial functions filled by Ukraine’s constantly evolving strike complex. The first function is to support the achievement of Ukrainian operational and tactical activities.
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8/ A 2nd function of the Ukrainian strike system is to expand the number of dilemma’s that Russia must face in its war against Ukraine. Ukraine is attempting to present Russia with threats on multiple fronts, aside from those it faces on the ground. This is aimed at forcing the Russians to make hard decisions about the allocation of resources in its defence industry and about the apportionment of scarce military resources.
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9/ A 3rd function is to engage in economic warfare and to degrade Russian energy and industrial capacity. However, as the allied strategic bombing campaign discovered during the Second World War, destroying an enemy industrial system is very difficult. While the Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure continue, the strategic effectiveness of this campaign is not yet clear. reuters.com/world/europe/u…
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10/ Finally, the Ukrainian strikes are political. Ukraine seeks to keep political pressure on Putin and demonstrate to Russian citizens that the war is not going their way. The other political purpose, which will be vital in 2024, is to demonstrate to Ukraine’s western supporters that it is still in the fight and that Russian strategic propaganda about inevitable Russian victory are not true.
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11/ Ukraine is targeting the 4 elements of the Russian war-making system as it targets what it may perceive as the Russian centre of gravity in this war: the will of Putin and his government to continue the war against Ukraine.
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12/ The Ukrainians are seeking to use strike operations, along with ground operations and diplomatic activities, to impose a disproportionate cost on Russia, and convince Putin that he cannot succeed in Ukraine.
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13/ It is important however to get the balance right between strikes with political purpose, those designed to degrade Russian strategic warmaking capacity, and those that are designed to attrit Russian forces and degrade their offensive capacity in 2024. That is a very difficult balancing act.
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14/ Notwithstanding the major achievements of the Ukrainian strike complex that has developed in the past 28 months, several challenges remain if it is to be the most effective strategic and operational capability for the Ukrainian armed forces in degrading Russian warfighting potential.
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15/ The five key challenges include orchestration, prioritisation, access to weapons, assessment and political issues. These are explored in detail in my new article.
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16/ Overall, Ukraine’s constantly adapting and improving strike complex has been an impressive achievement over the past 28 months. This strike complex has played an important role in in Ukraine’s 2024 military strategy and will do so again in 2025.
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17/ But for Ukraine, challenges remain. The five strategic challenges described in my new article ($) will need to be resolved if this very capable strike complex is to be used to best effect and support the achievement of the Ukrainian government’s war aims. End
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-stri…
mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-stri…
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18/ Thank you to the following for images and links used in this thread: @thewarzonewire @CovertShores @Reuters