EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm)

<b>@onechancefreedm:</b> This is about rerouting a tidal wave of captive capital, trillions locked in 401(k)s into private markets that are increasingly illiquid, overvalued, and in desperate need of fresh inflows. Behind the populist framing lies a deeper truth: public markets are saturated, instit...

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is down 17.8%, the steepest decline since the 2008 financial crisis. Historically, drawdowns of this magnitude have been tightly correlated with recessions. In fact, every major LEI plunge of this scale has preceded or coincided with significant ec...

Ishiba isn’t resigning because of bad poll numbers or party drama. He is resigning because he became the fall guy in a much bigger game, one where Japan’s entire economic strategy hit a wall, and the United States finally called its bluff. For years, Japan survived on a mix of financial repression, ...

Very strong 20-year auction today: high yield of 4.935% came in below the when-issued 4.951%, stopping through by 1.6bps. That kind of stop is a clear signal that buyers were eager to lock in long dated yield and were willing to pay a premium to do so. But the real insight is in who showed up. Only...

At first glance, the June 2025 existing-home sales report doesn’t look too bad. Prices hit a new record $426,900 and sales ticked up slightly to an annualized pace of 4.27 million. But once you peel back the layers, what we’re really seeing isn’t recovery. It’s fracture. And it looks eerily similar...

Trump says rate cuts could save the U.S. $1 trillion a year in interest, and while that number is clearly exaggerated in the short run, the underlying problem he’s pointing to like spiraling interest expenses on the national debt, is absolutely real. The U.S. paid around $1.1 trillion in interest in...

<b>@onechancefreedm:</b> Despite the Fed keeping rates elevated at 5.25–5.50%, financial conditions have eased all the way back to levels we last saw when rates were near zero and the Fed was still doing quantitative easing. That’s not supposed to happen. Higher rates are meant to tighten financial ...

Despite the Fed keeping rates elevated at 5.25–5.50%, financial conditions have eased all the way back to levels we last saw when rates were near zero and the Fed was still doing quantitative easing. That’s not supposed to happen. Higher rates are meant to tighten financial conditions, making credit...

What this chart is showing is that the stocks in the S&P 500 aren’t really moving together right now, they’re all kind of doing their own thing. That’s what a low 1 month correlation means. And when correlations drop this low, it’s usually not a sign of a strong, healthy market. It’s often a sign th...