Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch)

1/6 The preliminary November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey was released this morning (blue). The "current conditions" measure of this survey set a new ALL-TIME LOW. Before 2020 (COVID), the stock market (red) was the primary driver of the public's economic outlook. These two ser...

1/6 Are Banks Having a Liquidity Problem? tl:dr, Liquidity in the plumbing of the financial system is getting scarce. It is not a crisis now, but it has been moving in this direction for weeks, and it is now at a worrisome point. When the financial plumbing gets stressed, it is when bad loans (ak...

1/12 Is the consumer paying higher prices due to tariffs? We don't know for sure, and will not for months, but some numbers suggest they are. This will surge inflation and keep the Fed on hold for a long while. Wall Street does not get this. 🧵...

1/6 Bonds are getting crushed again today. Now it looks like selling is coming from foreigners, especially Europe. China is believed to hold several hundred billion of US Treasuries in legal entities in Belgium and Luxembourg. 🧵...

Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation. If I had to GUESS, the basis trade is in full unwind. Since Friday's close to now ... the 30-year yield is up 56 bps, in three trading days. The last time this yield rose this much in 3 days (close to close)...