Investors don’t realize gold ALWAYS crashes during an oil-driven...
Felix Nikolas Prehn 🐶@felixprehn
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Nov 15, 2026
~3 min read
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Investors don’t realize gold ALWAYS crashes during an oil-driven crisis.
It happened in all major oil shock in the last 50 years - 1973, 1979, 1991, 2001, and 2022.
In this thread, I'll break down exactly why it happens and what institutions expect happens next:
It happened in all major oil shock in the last 50 years - 1973, 1979, 1991, 2001, and 2022.
In this thread, I'll break down exactly why it happens and what institutions expect happens next:
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It begins with a disruption in oil supply, resulting in:
1) Oil prices spike
2) Inflation expectations rise
But the Fed gets stuck - it can't cut rates anymore.
So bond yields climb, and suddenly US debt paying 5% is more attractive than gold.
Money flows out of gold.
1) Oil prices spike
2) Inflation expectations rise
But the Fed gets stuck - it can't cut rates anymore.
So bond yields climb, and suddenly US debt paying 5% is more attractive than gold.
Money flows out of gold.
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Then the US dollar gets stronger.
Why?
When people around the world get scared, they send their money back to the US as the next "safety option".
Now 3 things are working against gold:
1. High yields
2. Strong dollar
3. A frozen Fed
Why?
When people around the world get scared, they send their money back to the US as the next "safety option".
Now 3 things are working against gold:
1. High yields
2. Strong dollar
3. A frozen Fed
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This is why your gold position is red during a crisis.
It's how regular people think and how they ALWAYS behave.
And gold ONLY responds to liquidity, not fear.
When there's less liquidity, gold has a mini-crash.
It's how regular people think and how they ALWAYS behave.
And gold ONLY responds to liquidity, not fear.
When there's less liquidity, gold has a mini-crash.
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But they don't realize suppression is temporary.
• Bond traders know the US has $38 trillion in debt with $9 trillion needing refinancing
• The government even pays more in interest than its entire military budget
Rates HAVE to come down eventually.
That's the trigger.
• Bond traders know the US has $38 trillion in debt with $9 trillion needing refinancing
• The government even pays more in interest than its entire military budget
Rates HAVE to come down eventually.
That's the trigger.
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When the bond market internalizes that rate cuts are inevitable, everything reverses.
That's when yields fall, the dollar weakens and what was holding pushing gold's price down just disappears.
Money starts flowing back into gold again.
That's when yields fall, the dollar weakens and what was holding pushing gold's price down just disappears.
Money starts flowing back into gold again.
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History proves this ALWYS happens:
• After the 1973 oil crisis, gold went up 150% in two years
• After Iran's revolution in 1979, gold jumped 89% in one year
• After 9/11, gold went from $250 all the way to $1,900 over the next decade
• After the 1973 oil crisis, gold went up 150% in two years
• After Iran's revolution in 1979, gold jumped 89% in one year
• After 9/11, gold went from $250 all the way to $1,900 over the next decade
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But today's setup is arguably more extreme than any prior cycle.
• Central banks around the world bought over a thousand tons of gold last year
• Silver has had more demand than supply for three straight years
• US debt is higher than it's ever been
It's worse than before.
• Central banks around the world bought over a thousand tons of gold last year
• Silver has had more demand than supply for three straight years
• US debt is higher than it's ever been
It's worse than before.
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There'll be a four-phase recovery pattern.
Phase 1 (weeks 1–4): Panic selling
Phase 2 (months 2–3): Gold and silver pull back hard, retail investors capitulate and sell at the worst possible time.
This is where they lose money by making emotional decisions.
Phase 1 (weeks 1–4): Panic selling
Phase 2 (months 2–3): Gold and silver pull back hard, retail investors capitulate and sell at the worst possible time.
This is where they lose money by making emotional decisions.
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Phase 3 (months 4–18): This is where the money is made.
Gold starts climbing backed by real buyers and most investors already sold and are too scared to get back in.
Phase 4 (month 12+): New all-time highs above pre-crisis levels.
Gold starts climbing backed by real buyers and most investors already sold and are too scared to get back in.
Phase 4 (month 12+): New all-time highs above pre-crisis levels.
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What do you do about this?
5 sectors have outperformed during every major crisis:
1) Gold miners (GDX, GLD) for leverage
2) Silver (SLV) for demand
3) Energy (XLE) for oil
4) Defense (ITA) for war spending
5) Utilities (XLU) for safety when everything bleeds
Full breakdown:
5 sectors have outperformed during every major crisis:
1) Gold miners (GDX, GLD) for leverage
2) Silver (SLV) for demand
3) Energy (XLE) for oil
4) Defense (ITA) for war spending
5) Utilities (XLU) for safety when everything bleeds
Full breakdown:
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There are two types of investors right now:
The first thinks the trade is over.
The second recognizes this temporary suppression and accumulates quietly WITH institutions and central banks.
Understanding this pattern is what separates the two.
The first thinks the trade is over.
The second recognizes this temporary suppression and accumulates quietly WITH institutions and central banks.
Understanding this pattern is what separates the two.
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Want the full breakdown with charts and data behind every point?
I recorded a 30-minute video covering all of this in detail.
Search "The UNTHINKABLE is about to happen to GOLD & Silver" on YouTube and look for my name.
It goes much deeper than a thread ever can.
I recorded a 30-minute video covering all of this in detail.
Search "The UNTHINKABLE is about to happen to GOLD & Silver" on YouTube and look for my name.
It goes much deeper than a thread ever can.
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I break down institutional research into actionable insights so you can see what's actually moving the markets right now.
