Amidst all the understandable joy over the change of power in...

Amidst all the understandable joy over the change of power in Serbia, journalism must maintain a cool-headed perspective, including on the Serbian student movement and its spectacular success. For Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, I had a closer look at the foreign policy program of the Serbian student movement. It is a disaster. A summary in 8⃣ points.

1⃣ First a general note: In the parliamentary election in Serbia, which ousted long-serving Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić from power and may have been the beginning of his political end (but maybe not, he still controls Belgrade and most large cities and towns), the issues were first, second and third domestic. Foreign policy played no role in the campaign, at least not for the victorious "Student List" and its voters. For understandable reasons, people cared about the state of affairs in Serbia, and nothing else. This is why the “Student List” was voted into power.

2⃣ Yet foreign policy questions will soon fall upon the new Serbian government. And what is known of the student movement's foreign policy program promises nothing good for the Balkans. On several central questions, the student movement's ideas on foreign policy connect seamlessly with the Serbian nationalism of Vučić and his partly defeated "Progressive Party." It is a document of Serbian nationalism and backwardness. An attempt to implement it would inevitably stoke conflict in the region. So let us have a closer look:

3⃣ It is not surprising that the students do not recognize Kosovo's independence. As a result of the work of former Prime Minister Vojislav Koštunica, who came to power as a nationalist “compromise solution” in order to oust Serbian autocrat Slobodan Milošević in 2000, this position is enshrined in the preamble of the Serbian constitution. But the student movement goes further than just not recognizing Kosovo de jure. It seems unwilling to acknowledge Kosovar statehood as a fact of life. Its programme sounds as if a Belgrade government could act as it pleases throughout Kosovo, including in the south, where the Serbian state has de facto no power and defintely nor jurisdiction.

4⃣The program says Serbia will “fight for Kosovo” to remain (as if it still was) part of Serbia, but leaves open how this “fight” is to be waged. Kosovo is referred to only as the "so-called republic", which is exactly the terminology Vučić and his party used: "We will consistently oppose the unilaterally declared independence of the so-called Republic of Kosovo and will not allow its accession to international organisations", the students say. The movement apparently wants to go back even on what has already been achieved. Referring to the previous government and the Serbia-Kosovo agreement on normalising relations between Belgrade and Pristina, concluded in 2023 under EU mediation, the programme states: "We will criminally prosecute all responsible representatives of the regime for any offences connected with the conclusion and implementation of unconstitutional agreements to Serbia's detriment."

5⃣ The movement evidently wants to reverse Kosovo's statehood. From the perspective of the Serbian student movement, there is no democratically elected Kosovar government. Instead, the programme speaks of "provisional self-government institutions in Pristina." The Serbian university in Kosovska Mitrovica, in the compactly Serb-populated north of Kosovo, is likewise described in the students' wording as having its seat there only "provisionally." Why provisionally? Because they want to move it back to the capital, Pristina? Without consulting the Kosovar government? How would that work?

6⃣ On Kosovo, the student movement relies on "the traditional partnership" with Russia "to resolve open questions of common interest." Consistently to this, it rejects the introduction of sanctions against Russia: "The Republic of Serbia will maintain its fundamental position of not imposing restrictive measures against the Russian Federation." At the same time, it seeks a "comprehensive strategic partnership" with China, to be further expanded even above current levels, particularly in the economy, infrastructure and high-technology investment.

7⃣ The student movement also takes a clear position on Israel. The relevant passage begins with the sentence: "Our people know very well what it means to be victims of genocide and ethnic cleansing." The conclusion: "Accordingly, we will not become complicit in the systematic attempt to destroy the Palestinian people that Israel is undertaking in the Gaza Strip. We will step up the delivery of humanitarian aid to Palestine to save lives and reduce the number of victims." In their outrage at Israel's policy towards the Palestinians, Serbian students are not alone in Europe. (I share the outrage and have written about it). But one may ask how credible such outrage is when it comes from a movement whose view of its own country's history and crimes is above all an collection of blind spots. The movement that claims the Serbian people “know very well what it means to be victims of genocide and ethnic cleansing” has not said a single word about the state funeral with military honors that was given to Serbian war criminal Ratko Mladić in Belgrade. It has held nationalist rallies on the anniversary of the medieval Battle of Kosovo of 1389, but remained silent on the anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide committed by Serbs in 1995. All of this illustrates the mindset of generation that has absorbed more of the nationalist atmosphere of Vučić's 12 years in power than it realises.

8⃣ Caveat: An election program is just that - a program. Many political programs have remained on paper and never reached the real world. Perhaps pragmatism will come with power for the students. But if what is written in this program were actually to become the students' foreign policy, Croatia, Montenegro, Kosovo and the Bosnian majority population would probably unite in some form against such a Serbia. They would have to commonly confront a country that has such a blind view of itself, its past and its neighbors. The result would not be Serbia's liberation, but its isolation. It should be made clear to Belgrade: Not accepting the independence of Kosovo is a Serbian choice, of course. But in order to re-instate Serbian control over Kosovo, Serbs would have to go to war. And this war they would most certainly lose. Again. For more, see Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
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