News/Politics thread by @Andric1961

1

When a banana republic goes nuts, this has consequences, first and foremost, for the banana republic. When the most powerful country in the world goes nuts, it has consequences for – well, the world. An example of how MAGA USA influence developments in Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH):

2

Today, the Bosnian state Court convicted Milorad Dodik, the President of the Republika Srpska, which is part of BiH, sentencing him to one year in jail and banning him from holding any office, including the one he currently holds, for six years.
balkaninsight.com/2025/02/26/bos…

                            3
                        
Dodik was found guilty of breaking a law that exists only in BiH: Defying decisions of the High Representative (HR). The HR is a position that also exists only in BiH. The High Representative is the international official overseeing the post-war order in Bosnia.

                            4
                        
For some years now, the office of the HR has been held by German politician Christian Schmidt, a conservative former minister of agriculture from Bavaria. Like many High Representatives before him, Schmidt is in a constant conflict with Dodik, who claums Schmidt is illegal as HR.

                            5
                        
In 2023, Schmidt used his extraordinary powers to block laws that had been adopted in Republika Srpska (RS). One law stated that rulings of Bosnia´s Constitutional Court should no longer be recognized in the RS. Still, Dodik went on to implement the law, ignoring Schmidt.

6

Schmidt responded by issuing a new decree (which then became law) stating that anyone who disregards his decrees or undermines their implementation faces a prison sentence of up to five years.
faz.net/aktuell/politi…

                            7
                        
Digression: There is a fundamental problem with the Office of the High representative (OHR). Whoever holds this office can decree or nullify laws and dismiss democratically elected officials without them having any judicial recourse. The office is beyond any democratic control.

8

The list of misconduct, mistakes, and human rights violations by the OHR is long. A disaster. The position of the High Rep resembles more that of a viceroy in British colonial India than anything that should be acceptable in modern-day Europe. esiweb.org/publications/t…

9

But because the OHR is a popular playground for (Western) diplomats & politicians, all attempts and promises to close it down have failed. They always find excuses why it has to stay.
nato.int/docu/review/ar…

                            10
                        
Back to today: When Schmidt passed the law making it illegal not to obey his decrees, a possible consequence in the case of Milorad Dodik became immediately foreseeable: What about the implementation of the law?

11

In the old days, this was easy. After the war in Bosnia had ended, a NATO-led “stabilization force” (IFOR/SFOR) of 50.000 troops moved into Bosnia to secure the fragile post-war order in the war-torn country.
press.un.org/en/1996/199612…

12

While SFOR was not the executive arm of the High Representative, it gave his office a much more powerful position than it holds today, as there is now only a largely symbolic Western military presence in Bosnia.
euforbih.org

13

So the obvious question in the event of Dodik’s conviction is simple: Who will arrest the elected president of the Republika Srpska if he is found guilty by a judicially binding verdict? Simply put: Who will go after Dodik?
dw.com/bs/faz-presuda…

14

In Sarajevo, you will hear that such an arrest would fall under the jurisdiction of the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA). However, it is highly unlikely that its current director would ever order the arrest of Dodik.
sipa.gov.ba/en/about-us/ge…

15

Because SIPA-Director Darko Ćulum is a Bosnian Serb and a Dodik loyalist. Ćulum was the head of the Republika Srpska police in Banja Luka for many years before moving to the state-level institution in Sarajevo.
sipa.gov.ba/en/about-us/ma…

                            16
                        
Other forces within SIPA might attempt to arrest Dodik. But in Banja Luka, they could meet the resistance of the Serbian police, or parts of it. Violence might spiral out of control - if Dodik manages to convince Serbs that the attack against him is an attack on Republika Srpska.

17

This is not sure though. The opposition wants to get rid of Dodik. Many Serbs in BiH are tired of Dodik. A pro-Dodik rally today in BanLa Luka attracted only a small crowd. But would it be possible to arrest him? In 2009/2010, there was a similar case.
apnews.com/article/bosnia…

18

At the time, Dodik mocked the threats to remove him from office, saying the international community simply no longer had the power to do so: "What are they going to do? Roll in tanks and keep me from entering the government building?" he asked.
oe24.at/businesslive/w…

                            19
                        
Dodik thus exposed a sore point: The High Representative, as well as the EU, are emperors without clothes in Bosnia. Their "soft power" is more soft than power. This is even more true since Donald Trump is back in the White House.

20

The former US ambassador in Sarajevo supported Schmidt’s actions against Dodik. But he was recalled, and a successor has not yet been appointed. The huge US embassy in Sarajevo is headless. Officials there don't know what they are allowed to do and say.
n1info.ba/english/news/u…

21

The old USA is gone. A democracy that withered away. Dodik, for his part, has long been on Trumps side. It is his big chance.
n1info.ba/english/news/r…

22

On Tuesday, former New York mayor and Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani arrived in Banja Luka (the RS capital) where he spoke at a support rally for Dodik. If you can do it in the Bronx, why not in Banja Luka? Especially when RS-taxpayers reward you generously 💰
n1info.ba/english/news/r…

23

Dodik has announced a referendum on a possible secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and entering a confederation with Serbia. While he has done so countless times in the past without any consequences, there is a major difference now:
msn.com/en-ca/news/wor…

24

In the past such a move would have put him at odds not only with the EU but, above all, with the United States, and it was not supported by Serbia or Croatia. As far as the US is concerned, that can no longer be said with certainty today. Tempi passati.
n1info.ba/english/news/u…

                            25
                        
As the verdict was first instance, both Dodik and the prosecutor can appeal. Dodik said he won´t, as he does not recognize the court. The prosecution certainly will. And once there will be a binding court verdict finding Dodik guilty, the question of implementation arises.

26

For more, as usual, check Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
faz.net/aktuell/politi…

When a banana republic goes nuts, this has consequences, first and...

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